Thread by @AukeHoekstra

Hope German car finally stops dragging its feet and gets in on the act of building EVs before it loses out to China. I've been saying this for 5-10 years but maybe this @WSJ article is a more influential wake-up call.
It's not a done deal but I'm really worried. (short thread).

https://twitter.com/mzjacobson/status/1162033341945638912

First the bad news: at the moment German carmakers like @VWGroup (VW, Porsche, Audi), @BMW and @Daimler (Mercedes) are missing in action. There are 6 carmakers you've probably never heard of that outsell all of them.

Also: the economic impact of getting this wrong will be catastrophic for Germany and the EU.

And this hasn't sunk in enough yet. A lot of CEOs are still asleep at the wheel.

Also carmakers are lobbying like crazy to delay implementation of stricter emission norms but that won't help them because by 2025-2030 BEVs will be cheaper to buy.

In the period leading up to 2025-2030, people will find the BEV is much cheaper to own (due to ~70% lower energy and maintenance cost and good resale value).
So the idea that the world will still buy 2/3rd gasoline cars in 2035 (as most predictions assume) is *ludacrous* imho.

I predict most new cars sold will be electric, latest in 2030, and much earlier in countries like my own AND IN CHINA.

Germany and the EU are going for a Kodak moment and face MASSIVE economic losses if they don't wise up to the fact that EVs will soon replace combustion cars.

So once again, so it's really impossible to misunderstand me: this is NOT going to be a GRADUAL process due to regulation but a superior technology quickly replacing an outdated one. Think film=>digital, nokia=>iPhone or incandescent=>LED.

Finally, the bad news is that historically speaking, market leaders seldom accept fundamental changes to their business model in time to avoid bankruptcy.
They consist of thousands of experts unwilling and unable to imagine their knowledge might be outdated.

But on the positive side for German car makers: the entire BEV market was less than 5% of their sales. Tesla only sold 2% of what the Volkswagen group sold.

It Tesla doubled its production every year and IF VW stayed the same, it would still take them 13 years to overtake VW.

Taking into account China could grow faster I don't think Germany has 13 years. More like 10. And since developing a new platform takes at least 7 years (and the platform currently in development is too expensive) time is running out.

Also, this platform will be more about batteries and software and less about the mechanical engineering that Germans excell at. (They really do!)

But don't count out the Germans too soon! After WWII Germany was traumatized when the awareness of the size of the atrocities they committed sunk in. They where also massively bombed so little production capacity was left. And the nation was split in two.

But instead of withering away, they created the "wirdschaftswunder" (~economic wonder: Google it!)

I hope that they can repeat that feat for the German car industry. Because the combustion engine is a dead man walking, whether you accept it or not.

Ps I misspelled "wirtschaftswunder"
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirtschaf…