AukeHoekstra Profile picture
Aug 18, 2019 14 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Hope German car finally stops dragging its feet and gets in on the act of building EVs before it loses out to China. I've been saying this for 5-10 years but maybe this @WSJ article is a more influential wake-up call.
It's not a done deal but I'm really worried. (short thread).
First the bad news: at the moment German carmakers like @VWGroup (VW, Porsche, Audi), @BMW and @Daimler (Mercedes) are missing in action. There are 6 carmakers you've probably never heard of that outsell all of them.
Also: the economic impact of getting this wrong will be catastrophic for Germany and the EU.
And this hasn't sunk in enough yet. A lot of CEOs are still asleep at the wheel.

Also carmakers are lobbying like crazy to delay implementation of stricter emission norms but that won't help them because by 2025-2030 BEVs will be cheaper to buy.
In the period leading up to 2025-2030, people will find the BEV is much cheaper to own (due to ~70% lower energy and maintenance cost and good resale value).
So the idea that the world will still buy 2/3rd gasoline cars in 2035 (as most predictions assume) is *ludacrous* imho.
I predict most new cars sold will be electric, latest in 2030, and much earlier in countries like my own AND IN CHINA.

Germany and the EU are going for a Kodak moment and face MASSIVE economic losses if they don't wise up to the fact that EVs will soon replace combustion cars.
So once again, so it's really impossible to misunderstand me: this is NOT going to be a GRADUAL process due to regulation but a superior technology quickly replacing an outdated one. Think film=>digital, nokia=>iPhone or incandescent=>LED.
Finally, the bad news is that historically speaking, market leaders seldom accept fundamental changes to their business model in time to avoid bankruptcy.
They consist of thousands of experts unwilling and unable to imagine their knowledge might be outdated.
But on the positive side for German car makers: the entire BEV market was less than 5% of their sales. Tesla only sold 2% of what the Volkswagen group sold.

It Tesla doubled its production every year and IF VW stayed the same, it would still take them 13 years to overtake VW.
Taking into account China could grow faster I don't think Germany has 13 years. More like 10. And since developing a new platform takes at least 7 years (and the platform currently in development is too expensive) time is running out.
Also, this platform will be more about batteries and software and less about the mechanical engineering that Germans excell at. (They really do!)
But don't count out the Germans too soon! After WWII Germany was traumatized when the awareness of the size of the atrocities they committed sunk in. They where also massively bombed so little production capacity was left. And the nation was split in two.
But instead of withering away, they created the "wirdschaftswunder" (~economic wonder: Google it!)

I hope that they can repeat that feat for the German car industry. Because the combustion engine is a dead man walking, whether you accept it or not.
Ps I misspelled "wirtschaftswunder"
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirtschaf…

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More from @AukeHoekstra

Jun 17
The official report on the blackout in Spain and Portugal is just released. I'll give a quick summary of findings and provide some additional info.

TL;DR
conventional power plants didn't control the voltage as planned
over-voltage caused renewables to turn off as required
The report (of which only press reports are available) points the finger to

1 conventional backup plant taken offline for maintenance without replacement being arranged

9 other conventional backup plants, of which every one had a degree of non-compliance
uk.news.yahoo.com/spain-reveals-…
Renewables also had a role: "tension was very high and sustained, causing the disconnection of generators".


An inside source tells me the voltage went above 110% in many places and solar was required to switch off, which meant 8GW was lost all at once.elpais.com/economia/2025-…
Read 5 tweets
Jun 10
Just made a visualization for myself about the unprecedented growth in solar that I thought I might share.

From 1880 to 1950 all electricity came from fossil+hydro. Then nuclear briefly grew with market share increasing with up to 1% per year in 1985.

Now solar takes over. Image
I've described in more detail in a substack post:

There's more info on each picture there.aukehoekstra.substack.com/p/the-coming-s…
I made this picture because I think you forget what is happening when you look at total final energy. Renewables seem so tiny! Image
Read 8 tweets
Jun 9
I see this a lot:

Conservatives who *just know* that nuclear is better than solar and thus blame their favorite scapegoat *the government* for solar doing better.

But in reality it's the opposite: the market likes solar so much that not even the government can save nuclear.
I guess Andre's attention for me is due to my being irritated at his fact free diatribes of pseudo-scientific nonsense:


So now he sees reacting to me as a way to get attention?
And I'm reacting again, so maybe I'm being duped?
Anyhow...
Let's start with some quantifiable facts. (Things this conservative armchair energy philosopher is allergic to.)
First thing we notice is that solar and wind are clearly surpassing nuclear (though the new leadership of the department of energy denies it).
Image
Read 19 tweets
May 18
Many people think solar and wind won't be able to keep the grid stable because they lack "inertia".

I think solar, wind and batteries will do a BETTER job and I think you can explain it thus:
- the old grid is a record player
- the new grid a digital player
🧵 Image
If you play vinyl records, the rotating mass of the turntable is used to keep the speed steady. This leads some vinyl enthusiasts to seek more mass because that will keep things more steady.

This turntable by Excel audio attaches a separate mass. (Overkill but makes my point.) Image
In the same way the inertia in the rotors of current power plants helps the grid to keep a steady 50 Hz (in e.g. Europe) or 60 Hz (in e.g. the US) frequency.

These machines turn a heavy copper coil wound around a heavy iron core and this helps keep the grid frequency steady. Image
Read 21 tweets
Aug 13, 2024
Great to see more and more attention for flexible grid pricing.

We must say goodbye to the "copper plate" that offers free power everywhere and every time. It's hideously expensive and outdated.

What we need is smart flexibility.
🧵
The underlying reason is that the costs of different components of the energy system changed:

Some remained high (e.g. pylons, fossil & nuclear)

Some plummeted (e.g. solar, wind, batteries, EVs & inverters)

Some became possible at all (e.g. measuring & steering in real time)
So now we should make good use of these new, clean, abundant and affordable options, even if it means doing things a bit differently than before.

So what should we do different regarding grid congestion pricing?
Read 20 tweets
Jul 28, 2024
Some are angry about the "anti-Christian depiction of the last supper" at the Olympic Opening ceremony. (@elonmusk and @realDonaldTrump among others)

A Dutch art historian explains it's not the last supper but a Dutch painting of the Olympic gods.
And I explain what I loved.
🧵
Image
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Original Dutch thread here. I just translated it.


@WSchoonenberg shows that the "tableau vivant" (living painting) is depicting "The Feast of the Gods" by Jan van Bijlert, from 1635.
Image
The heathen Gods have gathered on mount Olympus for a feast. Sun god Apollo is recognizable by his halo, Bacchus (Dionysus) by the grapes, Neptune (Poseidon) by his trident, Diana (Artemis) by the moon, Venus (Aphrodite) by Cupid.


Image
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Read 24 tweets

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