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Michael Pettis Profile picture
@michaelxpettis
Aug 19, 2019 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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Yes, agrees. Ironically democracy seems historically to be “in crisis” precisely when it is most proving its superiority to other systems, i.e. when it is managing us through a difficult, messy adjustment. The books cited here seem to worry that democracy is in trouble because...
...the electorate isn’t just, disinterested and well-informed, but I think this would only be a problem if the purpose of a political system were to express deep political truths. In fact I’d argue that nothing is more dangerous than such a political system: what we need is...
...one that allows our institutions to adjust, however clumsily, as conditions change, and unfortunately because there are times, like today, when change is extremely messy, chaotic and hard to predict, the best we can hope for is to adjust in a messy, chaotic and...
...unpredictable way. Like in the 1930s and the 1970s, I think the populism and “crisis of democracy” that we are experiencing today is just democracy doing what it is supposed to do. It is the non-democracies that are not adjusting, and while this may look like purpose and...
...stability, in fact I think it just reflects institutional rigidity. Jefferson is supposed to have wanted a bloody revolution every fifty years to drive institutional change, but while that may be more aesthetically pleasing, perhaps our way is better.
tabletmag.com/jewish-news-an…
I meant to paste this:
monticello.org/site/research-…

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More from @michaelxpettis

Michael Pettis Profile picture
Apr 29
1/9
 Interesting SCMP article: "China’s top market regulator is intensifying its crackdown on debt-laden “zombie companies” – rolling out a pilot programme in seven economic hubs to facilitate the forced exit of unprofitable firms."
sc.mp/q2aq0?utm_sour…
2/9
 Developing a robust bankruptcy framework in China is among the most important steps Beijing can take to reduce the role of non-productive investment in driving the economy. Hard budget constraints are what force economic activity to remain economic value creating.
3/9
 But it's not so easy to do this. The fact that China has far more "zombie" companies – highly inefficient businesses that are kept alive only by surging debt – than any other country is not an accident or an oversight.
Read 9 tweets
Michael Pettis Profile picture
Apr 26
1/8
 Brendan Greeley on the development of the eurodollar. If Beijing truly wants CNY to be more widely used in international finance, the eurodollar market provides one potentially useful model to show how that might happen.
ft.com/content/be3459…
2/8
 From the 1960s through the early 1980s, the eurodollar was a separate offshore dollar market and not simply an extension of the onshore USD markets. it was a way for dollars to circulate outside US regulation and US control. Its separation was created by...
3/8
 a series of frictional costs between the onshore market and the offshore needs of foreigners, including US capital controls, US bank regulation, and the refusal of Soviet bloc nations to hold their badly-needed dollars in onshore US banks.
Read 8 tweets
Michael Pettis Profile picture
Apr 25
1/5
 It's true that China was able to withstand the effects of the Iran war better than many other countries because it had stockpiled commodities. But it is a little silly, perhaps even a little orientalist, to say that it did so because of strategic thinking.
bloomberg.com/news/features/…
2/5
 We forget that Japan also stockpiled massive amounts of commodities in the late 1980s, and given the subsequent fall in commodity prices (driven in part by ja[an's own economic slowdown), this later turned out to be an additonal drag on economic performance.
3/5
 In both cases, the country was running enormous trade surpluses that had to be recycled, and were causing increasing concern abroad. In both cases, perhaps in order to disguise reserve accumulation, part of the reserve accumulation occurred through state banks.
Read 5 tweets
Michael Pettis Profile picture
Apr 20
1/6
 Good Steven Barnett piece. He points out that "targeting growth rates inconsistent with productivity trends leads to distortive policies", and argues instead for a "dramatic, permanent payroll tax cut" to boost consumption.
ft.com/content/d078c7…
2/6
 This would certainly work, as would any other policy that increases the disposable income of average Chinese households relative to GDP. China's extraordinarily low consumption share of GDP is mainly a consequence of the low household income share.
3/6
 Notice however that unless the cut in payroll taxes were matched by higher taxes on households or businesses, or by cuts in spending to either sector, a reduction in payroll taxes would have to be balanced dollar for dollar by more government debt.
Read 6 tweets
Michael Pettis Profile picture
Apr 20
1/4
 Several people have asked for more information about the Maekawa Commission report and its reception. There is a wide variety of sources, but I am attaching three memoranda on the topic written by the CIA in 1986. I find these especially helpful in illustrating perceptions at the time.
2/4
 From the summary of the April 9 memo: "A United States request that Japan alter its macroeconomic structure to reduce its propensity to run ever larger trade surpluses will probably bring a claim from Japanese officials that the country has already embarked on a process of structural change. Despite the nod this week's Maekawa Commission report gives to structural adjustment, Tokyo would probably resist major adjustments in savings, consumption, and investment incentives that did not also serve its industrial policy goals. Only the prospect of closed foreign markets or deep recession at home, neither of which Tokyo believes likely in the near term, would change this view."
cia.gov/readingroom/do…
3/4
 From the October 20 memo: "The impact on Japan's international competitiveness and on workers' spending patterns will depend in large part on whether the reduced hours are accompanied by the same or lower earnings. If wages are cut back along with hours, production costs will not necessarily rise, and Japanese workers might not increase their spending."
cia.gov/readingroom/do…
Read 4 tweets
Michael Pettis Profile picture
Apr 16
1/9
 The Economist discusses the determination of South Korea's president, Lee Jae Myung, to expand RoK industrial policy aggressively. "His plan involves diverting capital from the housing market to...
economist.com/finance-and-ec…
2/9
 industry, especially chipmakers instrumental to the global artificial-intelligence boom, and supplementing this with government cash."

The Economist describes these industrial policies as "trade-distorting intervention", and wonders how successful they will be.
3/9
 They certainly do affect trade. Diverting lending from the housing sector to targeted high-tech manufacturing sectors is likely to reduce the consumption share of total production while diverting production from services and the property sector to manufacturing.
Read 9 tweets

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