1. There is a tendency to assume that sanctions must be causing exceptional economic hardship in Iran. But the irony is that the global financial crisis led to 5-10% contractions in a bunch of countries back in 2009 while Iran was left on the sidelines. ft.com/content/706bfc…
2. Had Iran's economy been as integrated with the global financial system as some of its frontier/emerging market peers, it may have still have experienced a contraction around the year 2009 of the same magnitude as it experienced in 2012 (7.5%) due to sanctions.
3. The same thing may be happening again. We can look at the 9% contraction predicted for 2019 and think that it's a devastating blow to Iran's economy. But it isn't exceptional when considering that the coming financial crisis will cause similar contractions in many countries.
4. Iran's current contraction may reflect the same readjustment that the economy went through in 2012 at the peak of the multilateral sanctions campaign. The following year Iran rebounded to zero growth. The question is whether the fundamentals today suggest history will repeat.
5. This context matters when evaluating the claim that Iran's government will either A) capitulate to US demands or B) collapse altogether because of the max pressure campaign. The claim is postulating an extraordinary political outcome on the basis of ordinary economic malaise.
6. The average GDP growth of upper middle income countries from 2006 to 2016 was 5.4%. Under sanctions, Iran averaged 2.9% growth in that decade. The real story is that Iran is falling behind among its peers (relative decline), not that it's headed to collapse (absolute decline).
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1. Today, President Biden issued an executive order authorizing sanctions to block foreign banks that facilitate transactions related to Russian "technology, defense... construction, aerospace, or manufacturing."
Will these new secondary sanctions hobble Putin's war economy?
2. Coinciding with the new executive order, @wallyadeyemo has an op-ed in the @FinancialTimes explaining what Treasury aims to achieve.
Banks that are found to be supporting Russia's "war machine" will "risk losing access to the US financial system." ft.com/content/f1fe5e…
3. This is a big deal because the US is finally set to use its most powerful sanctions authorities to try to hurt Russia's war effort. There remains a widespread impressions that the Russia sanctions are the strongest ever imposed. That's not quite right!
1. This is an astonishing and terrifying report by @yuval_abraham on Israel’s use of an AI system called Hasbora to conduct mass targeting in Gaza, leading to “intentional” civilians deaths.
2. Back in July @marissalnew detailed how the IDF had begun using an “AI recommendation system that can crunch huge amounts of data to select targets for air strikes.”
3. Rafael is an Israeli defense contractor best known for producing the Iron Dome. Back in 2021 it announced that greater use of AI in its systems would “transform the operator from a hard worker into a decision-maker.” jpost.com/israel-news/a-…
1. Does anyone have a good explanation as to why the Afghani has strengthened 20% against the dollar in the last 6 months? How is the Taliban achieving this?
2. This report by @karllesteryap and @EltafN from September points to tighter regulation of the FX market by the Taliban, but there is little detail on potential role of trade. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3. The World Bank's latest update on Afghanistan's economy points to a *widening* trade deficit as imports rise faster than exports. thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/2ab7531…
1. It is bizarre for Iran International to attack think tank analysts over a purported "lack of transparency."
Iran International is itself untransperant.
In five years, the network has burned through $569 million. They won't tell anyone who's footing the bill.
2. This is an excerpt from Brett Stephen's op-ed on the Iran "influence network" controversy. It could be about Iran International.
Setting aside the question of editorial independence, readers and viewers of the network's content deserve to know who owns and funds the channel.
3. But that information is totally absent from the Iran International website, which has no management section + no masthead. The footer links to the website of Volant Media, which is the corporate entity that owns + operates the brand. Weirdly, Volant has a single shareholder.