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Evan A. Feigenbaum Profile picture
@EvanFeigenbaum
Aug 20, 2019 • 6 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
1/6: Thanks, and agree 100%, so it's not a rejoinder but a fact. Sadly, the US doesn't coordinate that especially well anymore. More important, I've argued over many years that the US seems oblivious to longer-term structural changes, in Asia especially, altering the landscape.
2/6: From 2011 (before the Belt and Road existed or Xi Jinping had yet taken power): Some of the writing of a more integrated Asia was already on the wall. I explored why the US had lost the plot in this essay, "Why America No Longer Gets Asia" in @TWQgw: csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/le…
@TWQgw 3/6: From 2009: Two decades of post-Asian Financial Crisis ideas threatened to marginalize the US (or alter its role without major adaptations from Washington). I explored with @Rmanning4 in this @CFR_org monograph on "The United States in the New Asia": cfr.org/asia-and-pacif…
@TWQgw @Rmanning4 @CFR_org 4/6: From 2012: The collision of security and economics similarly threatened traditional US roles in Asia. The US has since compounded this problem with TPP withdrawal and Trump trade policies. This @ForeignPolicy essay, "A Tale of Two Asias" explored: foreignpolicy.com/2012/10/31/a-t…
@TWQgw @Rmanning4 @CFR_org @ForeignPolicy 5/6: From 2015: The US risked misidentifying the sources of its competition by conflating long-term structural trends in Asia with short-term "Sinocentric" trends. Explored in an essay on "The New Asian Order" in @ForeignAffairs: foreignaffairs.com/articles/14284…
@TWQgw @Rmanning4 @CFR_org @ForeignPolicy @ForeignAffairs 6/6: From 2018: The US had, in my view, finally lost the plot in Asia, whining a lot while competing too little and confusing some causes with effects. This @MacroPoloChina essay, "Reluctant Stakeholder," explored and built on some of my earlier arguments: macropolo.org/analysis/reluc…

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More from @EvanFeigenbaum

Evan A. Feigenbaum Profile picture
Aug 18
🧵This piece by Peter Navarro in today’s @FT completes a bizarre narrative arc in which the administration now argues that the war is Ukraine’s fault enabled by India instead of Russia”s fault enabled by China and others. It is pure strategic malpractice. ft.com/content/286160…
2: Navarro says all sorts of things. The larger issue is that the secretary of State and other principals authorized it. So those who know better and are supposed to balance American interests either agree with it, don’t agree with it but authorized it anyway, or just don’t care.
3: As an exercise, swap “United States” for “India” and then “Pakistan” or even “China” for “Russia.” For 25 years, the U.S. and India have objected to this or that aspect of third-party relations. They never, until this administration, let it debilitate the whole relationship.
Read 7 tweets
Evan A. Feigenbaum Profile picture
Jul 11
1:🧵on America's misperception of Asian challenges and aspirations. In this deep dive into America's role in Asia, I pull the thread on several themes that have dominated my work for over a decade and concern me hugely as a strategist and former diplomat: pacificpolarity.substack.com/p/evan-feigenb…Image
2: America's oversecuritization of its approach to Asia - Washington is long on security and short on pretty much everything else. As I sometimes tartly put it, the United States is in serious danger of becoming "the Hessians of Asia."
3: The strategic narcissism of filtering an entire Asia strategy through the prism of competition with China - in other words, rather than "getting China right by getting Asia right," making every policy, initiative, and relationship derivative of America's focus on Beijing.
Read 12 tweets
Evan A. Feigenbaum Profile picture
Feb 17
1: It takes a unique kind of nihilism to think that everything the U.S. has done internationally was a scam except to project military power. Keep our market open? Scam. Trade pacts? Scam. Write rules from which others benefit too? Scam. Foreign assistance? Scam. Alliances? Scam.
2: There seems to be a lot of this going around. All these tools, from foreign assistance to alliances, had a deep well of bipartisan support for decades. They reflected a certain optimism not just about America’s role in the world but also about what America would gain not lose.
3: Skepticism isn’t the same as nihilism. We can be skeptical and question how much we gain, where, and how from our foreign policy. Those are robust debates. But quite a few people in my timeline have crossed from skepticism to arguing that such tools have never had value.
Read 9 tweets
Evan A. Feigenbaum Profile picture
Sep 2, 2023
1: Blasts from my past. Have spent 15 years writing on (1) why "US vs. China" bipolarity is the wrong frame for the future of Asia; (2) the collision of economics and security; and (3) why pan-Asian ideas and institutions aren't "made in China." Here are some of my favorites. Image
2: From 2011, when Xi Jinping was barely out of the provinces and two years before China proposed the Belt and Road: Asia is being reconnected after a multicentury hiatus; the US is losing the plot and risks being marginalized; China isn't the only actor. csis.org/analysis/twq-w…
3: From 2012, written with my friend @Rmanning4: Security Asia and Economic Asia are diverging; the US is essential to the former but risks fading in the latter; China isn't the only actor. foreignpolicy.com/2012/10/31/a-t…
Read 12 tweets
Evan A. Feigenbaum Profile picture
Jun 9, 2023
1: No, it really isn't fine. For one, it infantilizes third countries. And it doesn't reflect the complex experience many of them have had with China. BRI is not "a debt and confiscation program," although there are indeed very troubling cases. Above all, whining isn't competing.
2: The irony is that the US doesn't need to do this. There is plenty of suspicion of Chinese intent across the world today, including the Global South. Experience is an good teacher, so governments are learning and bargaining differently with China while mass publics demand more.
3: We have an entire initiative at @CarnegieEndow digging into complex lessons from around the world. And one of these is that local players are learning how to compel or persuade Chinese players to adapt to local ways, not simply accepting "Chinese" ways. carnegieendowment.org/specialproject…
Read 15 tweets
Evan A. Feigenbaum Profile picture
Mar 19, 2023
1: Some background from me for the Xi trip to Moscow, where I expect Beijing to reinforce an entente that is both unsentimental and directed largely at shared ambivalence about (1) US foreign policy, (2) tools of US statecraft, e.g., sanctions, and (3) backfooting Washington.
2: A piece I wrote on Day 1 of Putin's war in Ukraine. I argued that Beijing faced irreconcilable interests and therefore had to choose among them or tack back and forth under the glare of international scrutiny. carnegieendowment.org/2022/02/24/chi…
3: This piece drew in part on personal experience with Beijing's response to Putin's aggression in Georgia in 2008, when I had only recently been the senior US official for Central Asia. Comparing 2022 to 2008 is instructive for seeing the evolution of Beijing's lean into Moscow.
Read 12 tweets

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