1. Withdrawal agreement: Macron says deal on the table is the outcome of compromise where both sides gave in. Open to further talks but UK must put fwd workable alternatives.
2. Future cooperation: both stress that Franco-British relations are about more than Brexit. Must continue to work on Mali, Syria, Russia, education and to combat global diseases - irrespective of Brexit outcome.
3. New deal: Boris Johnson says UK wants a deal. Says conversations with Merkel have given him (more) optimism. But says UK will leave by 31 Oct - with or without a deal.
4. Citizens’ rights: both are committed to protecting rights of respective citizens. London one of the largest French cities - “long may this remain” says PM.
5. Backstop: Macron says any alternative must meet two EU requirements: (1) no return of hard border (and conflict) and (2) protects single market (no single market through the backdoor). PM says he is understand - confident a solution can be found.
6. 30 days: Macron says EU and UK will try to find solutions - but word of caution: time is short. WA is unlikely to be fundamentally changed in that time. Says he is always portrayed as “hardline” on Brexit, but simply thinks decisions must be made - and stuck to.
He understands*
7. My take on Macron:
- Repeats EU stance: open to further talks but UK must put fwd workable alternatives that solve border & protect SM
- Says time is short: cautions that WA is unlikely to fundamentally change
- Reminds that EU Commission who negotiates, not EU leaders. END.
[In other words, nothing new]
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The 🇫🇷 National Assembly has voted down Barnier's government (331 MPs voted in favour of no-confidence vote). What happens next? Quick thread.
1. Context: Barnier's government was unpopular from the start. His budget proposal (there are 3 finance bills in total), even more so. Barnier did make changes to his proposal, but still a majority of MPs opposed it. He will hand in his resignation letter tonight to Macron.
2. Context (2): Of the 3 bills, 1 was adopted, 1 was outstanding and 1 was pushed through parliament without a vote (the gov used art. 49.3 of the constitution to do this). Hence, the no-confidence vote. Problem: France needs a budget by the end of the year, or cd face a shutdown
Why did Macron decide to dissolve the Assemblée Nationale (🇫🇷 lower house of parliament) & call early legislative elections. Only Macron's immediate entourage know but here are some personal thoughts 🧵:
1. Mix of reasons: end parliamentary deadlock; snap election focuses minds; show what the far-right truly cares about & what it is actually capable of doing; confidence & hubris that Macron can win the French over; rebuild republican camp. Thing is: is this possible in 3 weeks?
1. End parliamentary deadlock: 🇫🇷 government has a relative majority in parliament making it v tricky to pass legislation. Macron was always likely to dissolve parliament ahead of budget discussions this yr. But why so soon, and why give only 3 weeks?
I was planning to live-tweet @EmmanuelMacron’s 🇪🇺 speech but the network was saturated. So here is my slightly belated take (thread 1/9):
1. This speech has been in the making for a while. Member states often ask what 🇫🇷 wants to do over the next 5 years and the world has changed a lot since first Sorbonne speech in 2017 (pandemic, Ukraine, even Brexit). So this was Macron’s chance to set out his vision.
2. The ideas, on the whole, didn’t feel new. But there was a sense of urgency that wasn’t there in 2017: EU must adapt now or risk “dying”. EU must stop being naive and take risks: the world has become more competitive, ruthless and the EU is the only power still playing by…
My (quick) take on Macron's speech (not Q&A) @GLOBSEC: 1. Nothing substantially new - but I think it will go a long way to reassure those, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, who were critical of France, its position on Russia and not doing enough for Ukraine.
2. On NATO: NATO is back. But Europeans must think more abt how they guarantee peace & security on continent. Felt to me like Macron focused less on Europe (EU)'s independence from others & more on need to *become a credible actor in eyes of others.* Capable > autonomous.
3. On EU enlargement: unequivocally clear that Ukraine, Moldova & Balkans belong in EU. Talks must not take forever (but doesn't specify how long they shd take). EU must also think abt its future: outlook, what it becomes etc.
(He's running late - quelle surprise.. but does give me time to question my decision to live-tweet. Macron speeches tend to be v, v long)
Robert Vass, head of @GLOBSEC, thanks Macron for 1) being there - shows France's willingness to (re)engage with region; 2) for playing a role in Ukraine's enlargement and support to Ukraine; 3) European Political Community. Now over to Macron..
Today, on Europe 🇪🇺 Day, German Chancellor Scholz gave a speech in front of @Europarl_EN calling for an EU that is "more geopolitical, reformed & open to the future". What does this mean for France? Short thread 1/3:
1. Good news: 🇩🇪 and 🇫🇷 both want EU to: 1) be more geopolitical 2) have more capabilities, incl. more integrated defence industry 3) reform (for e.g. majority voting for foreign policy). NB: reform not a precondition to enlargement but a long-term goal 4) more industrial policy
2. Good news: 🇫🇷 will appreciate Scholz emphasis on African development (+ overcoming colonial history) & starting Ukrainian reconstruction now. No mention in speech of fiscal rules (probably because they are currently being discussed in Brussels).