Laura Grego Profile picture
Aug 22, 2019 16 tweets 17 min read Read on X
The Pentagon has canceled the GMD's Redesigned Kill Vehicle program. Undersec Griffin ended Boeing’s contract yesterday, finalizing a stop-work announcement made in May. #missiledefense @robertburnsap @AP
apnews.com/b6d01e01f2a440…
@robertburnsAP @AP The Missile Defense Agency stated that “The department ultimately determined the technical design problems were so significant as to be either insurmountable or cost-prohibitive to correct.” @jenjudson @defense_news defensenews.com/pentagon/2019/…
@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news This is an extraordinary announcement. Why? Because despite the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system’s poor track record, Congress continued to provide money to expand the system. Most interceptors were fielded before their design had been successfully tested even once.
@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news This was possible due to missile defense's exemptions to “fly before you buy” regulations, allowing fielding of poorly tested equipment. The haste resulting from Pres Bush’s 2002 directive to rapidly build a missile defense ensured this would be the case.
ucsusa.org/shieldedfromov…
@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news Since then, the bias has been strongly in favor of building more Potemkin village defense rather than stopping to try to make it work. The incentives were set up that way. Policymakers want to say they’re doing something about North Korea, defense contractors are getting paid.
@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news And (hopefully) it doesn't matter that much, it never has to get used and shown not to work. But this pretense is not without cost. And it’s not just wasted money. allthingsnuclear.org/lgrego/missile…
mostlymissiledefense.com/2019/08/20/upd…
@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news This just-cancelled RKV initiative marked the seventh
time in 15 years that the MDA has made a major effort
to fix the unreliable kill vehicle, so far at great expense and
without clear success. gao.gov/assets/680/670…
@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news This leaves the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system to operate with its existing interceptors for the foreseeable future. Successful intercept tests for these variants: CE-I: 2/4, CE-II: 2/4, CE-II Block I: 2/2.
@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news The reliability issues that the RKV program was trying to fix are important. But that problem is distinct from trying to make a system that is effective against a real attack. Despite being "operational" for ~15 years, the system has never been tested under realistic conditions.
@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news The GMD tests have averaged less than 50 percent operational realism, according to the Pentagon’s Office of the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation. gao.gov/products/GAO-1…
@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news The GMD system was to be expanded from 44 to 64 interceptors by 2023, using interceptors equipped with a new kill vehicle. This seems unlikely, especially as the Pentagon is saying it will be pursuing a “next-generation interceptor,” which could be quite different.
@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news And Undersec Griffin seems very interested in directed energy and space-based missile defense.
@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news Though the fact that a neutral particle beam missile defense program got through the Pentagon's budget process says something (not good) about the rigor of that process, too.
@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news Bottom line: strategic missile defense is hard to do. It’s impossible to do without a strong incentive for rigor and oversight. And it is likely to be unachievable to a high standard against a determined adversary. (GMD is designed for a small number of unsophisticated missiles.)
@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news Despite it never getting close to this promise, strategic missile defense plays an outsized role in thinking about nuclear weapons. It really shouldn’t.
@robertburnsAP @AP @JenJudson @defense_news [Background: the kill vehicle is the heart of the hit-to-kill missile defense system. It's a file cabinet-sized object, basically optics with a propulsion system, gets launched and directs itself to smash into a nuclear warhead (or decoy) and destroy it with the force of impact.]

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Laura Grego

Laura Grego Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @LauraEGrego

Nov 15, 2021
The US @StateDeptSpox confirms Russian ASAT test:
"destructive" "direct ascent" ASAT missile
"dangerous, reckless, irresponsible" (agreed)
"puts collective interests in great danger" (agreed)
"1500 of trackable debris" NOT good news, will be much more
@StateDeptSpox The Cosmos 1408 was reportedly about 2200 kg, three times heavier than the Fengyun 1C satellite destroyed by China, which generated about 40,000 pieces of debris large enough to damage satellites (but mostly too small to be reliably trackable). physicstoday.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/1.… (2007)
@StateDeptSpox The ~500 km altitude means many of the pieces of debris are likely to persist in orbit for years.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 15, 2021
Did Russia destroy a satellite in an ASAT test? This has not yet been confirmed either by Russia or others. The Russian satellite that has apparently disintegrated into multiple pieces made a pass at the time and in the place of the exclusion zones for a Russian missile launch.
The defunct satellite, Cosmos 1408, orbits between about 460 and 490 km altitude. Over 600 active satellites have perigees between 400 and 500 km, including the International Space Station, which reportedly had to move to avoid debris from the breakup.ucsusa.org/resources/sate…
If this is confirmed it is an incredibly serious and irresponsible action by Russia. A collision with space debris the size of a marble can incapacitate a satellite. Keeping astronauts healthy in space is much harder when the spacecraft is dodging or being hit by debris.
Read 11 tweets
Oct 17, 2021
First reported by @Dimi in the Financial Times, China reportedly has tested a FOBS/hypersonic glider hybrid.
(Slow to the draw, but I try not to work on weekends!)
@Dimi Not a space weapon the way you might be thinking. The Outer Space Treaty bars putting nuclear weapons into earth orbit. Stationing nuclear weapons in orbit isn’t something anyone really wants to do anyway. 2009-2017.state.gov/t/isn/5181.htm
Space is a harsh environment and a much less protected spot to keep your dangerous and precious nukes than a storage facility, silo, or sub. Once they’re up there, you cannot maintain them, and an accidental detonation would lead to disaster.
Read 20 tweets
Nov 17, 2020
This morning the Missile Defense Agency announced a successful intercept test of the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense system against an “ICBM target.” What does this mean? mda.mil/news/20news000…
In short, it was a demonstration test to show this regional missile defense system, designed to engage short to intermediate-range missiles, can also target ICBM-range missiles when using its upgraded interceptors. Put that way, it seems like an incremental technical achievement.
But that’s not the main story. Plans call for deploying hundreds of these new interceptors
on mobile, globally-deployable Aegis BMD ships. The dramatic expansion of strategic defense cannot escape the notice of Russia and China.
Read 16 tweets
Dec 12, 2019
It would be easy to freak out about Space Force because of the ridiculous name or alternatively to just dismiss it as bureaucratic reshuffling. I think it’s a mistake to do either. Thread.
Space Force won’t *initiate* the militarization of space. Satellites have been used from the get go for strategic purposes like intelligence gathering and early warning of missile launch. The military use of space intensified in the last few decades
as modern militaries (most especially the United States) started to depend on satellites heavily for navigation and precision guided munitions, global communications, etc.
Read 24 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(