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Adam Jentleson Profile picture
@AJentleson
Aug 22, 2019 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
This. Because Dems went nuclear in 2013, we confirmed more Obama judges and left fewer vacancies for McConnell/Trump to fill. If we hadn’t gone nuclear, there would be fewer Obama judges and more vacancies for Trump. There is zero chance McConnell doesn’t go nuclear on his own.
This misunderstands the mechanics. McConnell could use any nominee to go nuclear on all nominees. So the first time Dems filibustered *any* Trump nominee - say, Jeff Sessions - McConnell could and would have gone nuclear on all nominees, including judges.
Let’s say for the sake of argument that McConnell didn’t have the votes to go nuclear in Jan 2017. A series of Dem filibusters of Trump nominees would have gotten him there. And Dem filibusters of Trump nominees - again, of any kind - were inevitable. @sahilkapur @jadler1969

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More from @AJentleson

Adam Jentleson Profile picture
Nov 13, 2022
While it's true that you can't mint candidates who look like Fetterman, the reason his message resonated was that the campaign was so deeply in tune with PA, including knowing that the NJ attack would resonate in ways that many political reporters never really grasped.
A common reaction among super-savvy DC political types was that the NJ stuff was “too online.” Well either Mr. Beuth, a retired 72-year factory worker from Armstrong county, is super online, or many super-savvy DC political types were wrong.
A good takeaway might be that just because something plays well online doesn’t mean it’s “too online.”
Read 5 tweets
Adam Jentleson Profile picture
Nov 12, 2022
Indeed. By contrast, the single smartest person about Nevada - in ether party - has not tweeted since August 31.
I meant among political operatives. @RalstonReports is very smart too but don’t tell him i said that.
He is 😢 But he lives on through her.
Read 4 tweets
Adam Jentleson Profile picture
Nov 10, 2022
We are witnessing crypto-esque cratering in the credibility of certain GOP consultants. ImageImageImage
😓
Wow, wouldja look at that.
Read 7 tweets
Adam Jentleson Profile picture
Nov 9, 2022
I say this in the most constructive spirit I can: it’s worth revisiting what happened with the debate. Before asking a single voter how they felt about it, many reporters let fly on Twitter and elsewhere with their confident predictions that it was a “disaster” for John. 1/
The abundance of evidence says that debates almost never matter. Yet in the face of all evidence and in many cases without bothering to check, many reporters immediately bought into the idea that this debate was an exception - that it had not just mattered, but was decisive. 2/
The reality of how voters digested the debate was not un-knowable, it just required a little work. Reporters who actually took the time to talk to voters tended to come away with different impressions than those who unburdened themselves on Twitter. 3/ washingtonpost.com/elections/2022…
Read 7 tweets
Adam Jentleson Profile picture
Nov 7, 2022
Incredibly important to remember this about PA. Just like in 2020, the results we'll see early on election night will skew heavily Republican. This situation is imposed by the GOP state legislature so anyone who uses this as a pretext to cry foul should take it up with them.
Exactly. In most states, election officials can start counting mail ballots earlier than in PA. The GOP legislature blocked efforts to speed up counting, which creates a situation where e-day ballots (generally more Republican) get counted faster.
A primer: wesa.fm/politics-gover…
Read 5 tweets
Adam Jentleson Profile picture
Nov 4, 2022
To emphasize one point I made in this discussion with Josh and @SCClemons, one reason Democrats need to deal with the debt ceiling ahead of time is to save themselves (and America) from themselves. Here's what I think will happen if they don't deal with the debt ceiling soon...
If we get up against the actual deadline, it will be very clear that Republicans are willing to send us into default. I was there in 2011 and there were a lot of Republicans who were willing to do it then. Now, there will be many more of them and they'll have a lot more power. 2/
Assorted Masters of the Universe will be in Dems' ears, screaming that it's on them to save America from default. Republicans will be demanding massive cuts to Social Security, Medicare, etc. Faced with the decision between default and massive cuts, Dems will choose cuts. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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