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@adamjentleson.bsky.social Profile picture
@AJentleson
Aug 22, 2019 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
This. Because Dems went nuclear in 2013, we confirmed more Obama judges and left fewer vacancies for McConnell/Trump to fill. If we hadn’t gone nuclear, there would be fewer Obama judges and more vacancies for Trump. There is zero chance McConnell doesn’t go nuclear on his own.
This misunderstands the mechanics. McConnell could use any nominee to go nuclear on all nominees. So the first time Dems filibustered *any* Trump nominee - say, Jeff Sessions - McConnell could and would have gone nuclear on all nominees, including judges.
Let’s say for the sake of argument that McConnell didn’t have the votes to go nuclear in Jan 2017. A series of Dem filibusters of Trump nominees would have gotten him there. And Dem filibusters of Trump nominees - again, of any kind - were inevitable. @sahilkapur @jadler1969

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More from @AJentleson

@adamjentleson.bsky.social Profile picture
Nov 14
A quick 🧵 on what seems to be Trump's plan to obliterate the Senate's advise and consent responsibility so that he can recess appoint his cabinet, or at least those members who lack the votes to get confirmed by the Senate. 1/
Remember that only the Senate confirms nominees and judges. The House has no role in the confirmation process itself.

The Constitution allows POTUS to make recess appointments, ie to put nominees in place without Senate confirmation. In the past this has been used sparingly. 2/
For recess appointments to happen, the Senate has to be in recess. For a decade or so, the Senate has not been going into recess when it adjourns but pro forma sessions, which can last up to 3 days. Long story, it goes back to Rs blocking Obama from doing recess appointments. 3/
Read 18 tweets
@adamjentleson.bsky.social Profile picture
Nov 9
Early taxonomy of responsibility:

1. Joe Biden’s profoundly arrogant decision to run again

2. The strategy by groups and their funders to push Harris to take politically disastrous positions in the 2020 primary, thus leaving the people they claim to fight for worse off
Moving forward, we can’t do anything about the first problem but we can do something about the second.
Gadflies need to reckon with the fact that the people they claim to fight for are worse off because of their efforts.

Winning elections is how you change policy.

The price of Trump winning will be paid by vulnerable people, not professional activists.

Read 7 tweets
@adamjentleson.bsky.social Profile picture
Nov 3
a quick🧵 on why this selzer poll of Iowa (???) matters, translated for normal people, i.e. those who don't remember where they were when she released her poll of the 2008 democratic primary (me, not normal: i was in the edwards HQ in chapel hill, all love to my JRE08 peeps ✊)
the reason political obsessives revere @jaselzer is that she is uncannily accurate, and has the courage to publish results that do not herd - and which usually end up proving prophetic. her record speaks for itself:
@jaselzer while IA has not been in play for dems at the presidential level since 2008, selzer polls still tend to predict neighboring states such as WI and maybe in this cycle, NE. and/because...
Read 5 tweets
@adamjentleson.bsky.social Profile picture
Oct 24
alright here's a 🧵on why i'm feeling optimistic and tips on surviving the next two weeks. take it or leave it.
first i want to endorse @danpfeiffer's take - YOU have agency. if twitter is stressing you out, log off. i like and respect @NateSilver538 but his model is not going to tell us anything by E day that it doesn't tell us today. the race models as a tossup.
but unlike nate my gut says harris is going to win. here's why.

let's starts with the fact that the race is a tossup. that's a GOOD thing compared to where we were a few months ago. in july, we were on track to lose. instead of a death march, harris has us in a position to win.
Read 13 tweets
@adamjentleson.bsky.social Profile picture
Nov 13, 2022
While it's true that you can't mint candidates who look like Fetterman, the reason his message resonated was that the campaign was so deeply in tune with PA, including knowing that the NJ attack would resonate in ways that many political reporters never really grasped.
A common reaction among super-savvy DC political types was that the NJ stuff was “too online.” Well either Mr. Beuth, a retired 72-year factory worker from Armstrong county, is super online, or many super-savvy DC political types were wrong.
A good takeaway might be that just because something plays well online doesn’t mean it’s “too online.”
Read 5 tweets
@adamjentleson.bsky.social Profile picture
Nov 12, 2022
Indeed. By contrast, the single smartest person about Nevada - in ether party - has not tweeted since August 31.
I meant among political operatives. @RalstonReports is very smart too but don’t tell him i said that.
He is 😢 But he lives on through her.
Read 4 tweets

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