I get that @WalshFreedom or Weld or Amash want to take on Trump from within the GOP, but I'm not enthusiastic about any of these primary ideas. I *really* don't want this to mutate into a 3rd-party challenge, which will only help Trump.
In my view, 2020 is a binary choice. /1
Sure, I'd love to see Joe (or Amash, or Weld) rough up Trump from the right, but I'm not sure it will accomplish much. Who's the audience? What's the goal? Trump voters are a cult. They won't defect. And Trump now owns the remaining detritus of what calls itself the GOP. /2
Now, if the goal is to force Trump to divide his attention (and funds), make him completely melt down, and convince the last two people in America who don't get it that they must vote to turn the Electoral College to a Democrat in order to remove Trump from office...well, hmm. /3
What if the goal is to rattle Trump in a primary and then shave just enough of the vote in one or two states in the general to cost Trump the Electoral College?
I don't think that'll work. Moreover, it's not worth the risk of helping Trump. Easier just to vote D for a cycle. /4
And if the goal is to put up a "Republican" just to protect the GOP brand by saying "this is a real Republican here in the primary," count me out. I want no part of that. Trump is a national emergency. I'm not up for overly-clever strategies to rescue the GOP as a party. /5
I respect Joe for stepping forward, owning mistakes, and defending things conservatives care about. If he runs, I hope he drives Trump crazy. (Or, *more* crazy.) But I'm not in favor of anything that even remotely risks Trump squeaking out another Electoral College win. /6
And two other points. First, I can't very well tell Democrats to get their act together and rally around a unity candidate, and then bolt over to a parallel conservative challenge.
The goal is to defeat Trump, period. So I'm staying with my plan of voting Democratic in 2020. /7
Second, as a moral issue, I don't want anything that gives Republicans a safe harbor, where they can say they didn't vote for Trump - but knew they'd get him anyway. I'm tired of people who are okay with Trump but who also want to avoid the moral stain of voting for the man. /9
This is an existential crisis of government, and "I sat this one out," or "I wrote in Bill Weld" just doesn't cut it for me. Yes, it's your right to do it as an American, as is your right not to vote at all.
But I think 2020 is, to steal a phrase, "A Time for Choosing." /10
My heart wishes there were an alternative, but my head tells me there isn't one. Unless someone can show me the math where a primary challenge helps remove Trump, I think my position is the only logical path.
Carla agrees. /11x
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So, a few words about this new Russian nuclear doctrine, but here's the short version: It's not a doctrine, it's a ploy.
/1
The old Soviet Union had a formal military doctrine, and it mattered. (Trust me. Wrote my doctoral dissertation and first book on it.) It mattered because the regime believed in ideology, and in conforming its policies to ideology and communicating that to its institutions. /2
Soviet military doctrine was a means of intra-elite communication and policy guidance. Yes, some of it was just bullshit, but it was a real thing that was meant to make the various parts of the USSR defense world (strategy, industry, etc) fly in formation. /3
Okay, I admit, I've been kind of rope-a-doping some of the people angry over my "it's okay to drop friends over politics posts." So I'll wrap up:
I don't recall anyone on my right getting mad when I wrote this in a right-wing - now insanely right wing - magazine in 2016. /1
The reason I got very little pushback, I suspect, is that no one expected Trump to win. But now, people on the right are stuck having to defend what they've done and itchy about it.
But interestingly, the same magazine also now has this:
/2
If you're angry over dropping friends and family over Trump now, but weren't in 2016, or aren't over calls now to de-recognize other citizens as Americans (and I assume that means friends who voted for Harris)...well...
/3
It's right on brand for the "fuck your feelings" crowd to say their vote, and the things they advocated for, must have no effect on any of their relationships with friends or family. Not only is that unrealistic, it's definitely whiny.
(And now let's remember some history.) /1
As a kid, I saw relationships among friends and family break over several issues - and especially Vietnam. No one back then said "You must treat me like a beloved friend or family member no matter what I say." People were, you know, grownups. They owned their politics. /2
I was there the night my parents and another couple ended their friendship because of Vietnam and the draft. (They said they'd drive their son to Canada if he was drafted.) When they left, all four of them knew it was done. As it turned out, that was okay with all of them. /3
Just as in 2016, Trump voters are the angriest winners I've ever seen.
🧵
/1
The thing that unites Trump voters with other extremists from right to left is that they are totalitarians. For them, winning an election isn't enough. Deep down, they doubt their own cause so they want you not only to accept their win, but to affirm them.
/2
An example on the left that appalled me was when SCOTUS ruled about gay marriage. There were a lot of people on the left who demanded not only that people accept the ruling, but embrace it and bake those gay wedding cakes. Sorry, but that's not how any of this works. /3
Uncharacteristically, I'll say that Dems should stop beating up on themselves and firing volleys back and forth. (They can get back to that later.) American voters - as I've been warning for years - are changing, and becoming more like Trump. That's hard to counteract. /1
Maybe the mistake we all made was thinking America would elect a Black woman. I had a gut feeling they would not. But in any case, when elections are about feelings, fantasies, boredom, and resentment, the candidate who services those delusions has a natural advantage. /2
Democrats are understandably focused on voters who flipped because they're suffering economically. But a far larger number of voters werfe un-flippable and not poor! They're the comfortable Trumpers who think, like, Canada conspired with Michelle O to hijack voting machines. /3
I used to encounter this among some senior officers I worked with who didn't think war college faculty should have tenure. But those who disliked the word "tenure" didn't dislike it enough that they stopped their kids from applying to top schools with faculties built on it. /1
And I know this because I asked. Many years ago, I asked an admiral where his colleagues sent their kids to college. He reeled off some impressive names. "Did they call and ask for the untenured faculty, or demand to see an ROI for one year at those schools?"
Response: 😡
/2
What it was really about is that some in the military leadership back then didn't want empowered and superior civilian faculty - for many reasons, which I'll write about another day. /3