Barry Ritholtz Profile picture
Aug 24, 2019 10 tweets 3 min read Read on X
I updated yesterday's post on Overstock to include a long term chart comparing $OSTK with the S&P 500 Retail Composite (plus Amazon)

Its an amazing example of underperformance

ritholtz.com/2019/08/overst… 1/
Here is the first of two charts, this one in dollar terms:

$OSTK is effectively flat over 15 years, while the S&P Retail comp and Amazon have skyrocketed.

2/
It is even more damning to look at this in terms of percentages:

Amazon is the outlier, gaining 3270% over that decade and a half. A better comparison is the Retail comp, up 364.3% over that period.

And $OSTK? It was up 5.3% over 15 years, or about a third of 1% annually.

3/
Gee, I cannot imagine why these guys loved to talk about naked shorting and deep capture and the unfair press they got instead of growth and revenues and profits...

4/
It is a cautionary tale about the doggedness of a few courageous people -- Herb, Gary, Sam and others -- who refused to be intimidated when the rest of the media either went away or were bamboozled.

5/
Speaking which: I cannot imagine how The New York Times could cover his resignation and somehow omit the SEC investigations, accounting frauds and profit restatements; Perhaps @julie_creswell and
@CadeMetz can explain this

6/
Perhaps they should go into the NYT own archives to do some research via @opinion_joe

nytimes.com/2006/02/25/bus…

7/
I hope the takeaway from this entire sordid chapter in corporate misbehavior and malfeasance on the part of the MSM resonates in the future.

To paraphrase Carl Sagan, Outrageous claims require outrageous proof, and that was sadly lacking in the case of $OSTK.

8/
That the media was so easily fooled is a sign of our times; It was not "Fake News," just really difficulty + uncomfortable reporting.

9/
I have a sneaking suspicion we have not heard the last of this weird dumb company.

I suspect it ends with a criminal prosecution and then a pardon from President Trump.

That seems about right for this lot.

End/

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More from @Ritholtz

Aug 27
A few quick thoughts about yesterday's discussion on how we got here...

FOMC seems 2b always behind the curve, historically, going back to the 1990s under Greenspan.

They are a big + boring conservative institution & are fearful of error. They tend to be less aggressive when making decisions, with significant ramifications.

Consider the errors of just the past 2 decades and you can see the biggest mistake they make is either arriving way too late to the party or once they are there, overstaying their welcome: Image
Read 11 tweets
May 19, 2023
FinTV comments I keep hearing:

1. Only 5 stocks driving markets
2. Recession is inevitable
3. Breadth is terrible
4. AI is a bubble
5. Debt ceiling = disaster
6. Problematic new lows
7. Consumers running out of money
8. Earnings will fail THIS Q
9. HH Debt!
10. Rally faltering
Let's see if I can find something to undercut each of those 10 items:
Only 5 stocks driving markets?

Then why are Equal-weighted indices doing so well?
Read 12 tweets
Mar 11, 2023
.@baldassarreted Congrats on picking up Certina as a brand -- they are wildly underappreciated.

My PH200M is a favorite daily wear -- it has a great retro flavor to it, and a wonderful mesh bracelet Image
One of the very best dive watches you can find for under $1,000. It just feels great on . . .

I always smile when a random stranger asks about it, in a way they wouldn't with a Rolex, Omega, or Tag Heuer.
I am a fan of Teddy's Youtube channel -- he avoids the overhyped stuff and has a deep knowledge of brands from Nomos to Glashutte to Junghans.

Check out:

youtube.com/@TeddyBaldassa…
Read 4 tweets
Mar 10, 2023
The Fed is Breaking Things (and it could get worse) dlvr.it/SkhPB7 Image
I interviewed Greg Becker, who was CEO of Silicon Valley Bank, in 2021...

ritholtz.com/2021/08/mib-gr…
The full transcript is here:

ritholtz.com/2021/08/transc…
Read 9 tweets
Jan 11, 2023
What drives market returns? These rolling 10-year total returns going back to 1909 (via Crestmont Research) show an average ~10% annual total return over any 10-year long period.
Ed Easterling (of Crestmont) breaks down those returns into these components: EPS, Dividend Yield, and P/E Increase (or decrease).

Note how cyclical P/E expansion/contraction is...
This is why it is important to include whether P/Es are expanding or contracting in any definition of a bull or bear market.

ritholtz.com/2017/08/redefi…
Read 7 tweets
Jan 3, 2023
Observations to Start 2023 dlvr.it/SgJkSr
It takes the Earth 365 days, 6 hours, 9 minutes + 9.76 seconds to complete 1 orbit – to return to the exact same place relative to the sun. Our planet has done this about 4.54 billion times.

What does this unit of time have to do with investing?

Alas, utterly nothing...
This is an example of the irrelevant nature of the calendar - I'd be curious to see what the data looks like for successive rolling 12-month periods rather than calendar years; it might also be more useful than using January - December periods

statista.com/chart/28401/an…
Read 4 tweets

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