David Fickling Profile picture
Aug 24, 2019 23 tweets 5 min read Read on X
When we think of Brazil's natural environment we tend to think of "untouched rainforest".

But this is a really unhelpful framing so here's a quick thread to unpack it:
The Amazon rainforest often seems to be the only thing you hear about, but it's one of *six* important natural environments in Brazil:
Probably the most important one that you hear less about is the cerrado to the south and east of the Amazon, coloured yellow in that map.

It's a tropical savannah, ie mixed forest/scrub/grass, and this is where most of Brazil's soy and beef is produced.
Then you have the Atlantic Forest along the coast.

This has been mostly cleared for 400 years and is where most people live, plus where most coffee and sugarcane is grown.
There's also the caatinga semidesert in the northeast inland from Bahia and Recife; the pantanal wetlands close to the Paraguayan border; and the pampas grasslands in the far south.
There's also a distinction around whether or not forest is "untouched".

Primary forest that's never been cleared is only about 40% of Brazil's forest cover. 60% is secondary forest, regrown after being cleared in the past.
There seems to be a sort of hierarchy in the public mind that's something like this:

1. Virgin rainforest
2. ...
3. ...
4. Regrowth rainforest/virgin savannah/regrowth savannah/everything else
This is a really unhelpful way to look at it.

For one thing, secondary forest is *really* important. It's 60% of the tree cover and performs up to 80% as well as primary forest in terms of biodiversity and carbon sequestration: sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/…
It's also the area that's most often re-cleared for agriculture.

Deforestation in Brazil's primary forest was brought more or less to a halt over the past decade but continues apace in secondary forest, a fact which gets very little attention.
(As an aside, I can't but note that there's a weird set of ideas around "virgin" and "despoiled" forest that seems to derive more from analogy with misogynistic old ideas about women's sexuality than anything to do with land management...)
The other thing is that *we should all be focused on the cerrado, not the Amazon*.

The current fires, and the chainsaw-happy posturing of President Bolsonaro, are obviously very worrying.

But generally the Amazon is pretty well-protected. The real battleground is the cerrado.
Soy producers, for instance, have had a moratorium on buying from the Amazon for a decade.

What happens in the cerrado over the coming decades will almost certainty have the more decisive impact on the global climate.
Only about half the cerrado is used for agriculture, and most of that is pastureland.

Farmers tend to clear most trees to make pasture but the real clear-felling comes when you switch to arable crops -- which in the cerrado means soy.
Each of those steps usually represents a loss of biodiversity and carbon-fixing.

Pasture at least is quite good at fixing atmospheric carbon -- most of the cerrado's carbon biomass is *below ground* so it can survive occasional bushfires.
Row crops like soy are much worse though, because each time you till the soil to plant seeds you diminish its capacity to lock up carbon.
There has been some experimentation in the cerrado with silvopasture -- grazing livestock in forest environments. It's possible this could play a big role in making beef farming in the cerrado more sustainable.
In terms of this year's fires in Brazil, a bit over 50% have been in the Amazon. And they're probably being set by ranchers or would-be ranchers, so it's right that people are freaking out.
But about 30% of fires have been in the cerrado too, and I don't notice #prayforthecerrado being a trending hashtag.

It should be, though! (ends)
Oh, one last thing about "Virgin Amazon rainforest".

Much of the Amazon isn't "untouched" at all but the product of specific agricultural practices by Indigenous peoples in the first millennium AD.
The characteristic Amazon "terra preta" black soil is a thick layer made up of charcoal from hearth fires, smashed pottery sherds, bone, compost and manure.

Large, possibly in some places urbanized societies in the first millennium AD laid this soil down carbuna.com/en/core-info/t…
"Primary forest" is a bit of a misnomer in most parts of the world. What we really mean by it is "not cleared by colonial and post-colonial societies", ignoring the fact that Indigenous societies were active land managers.
Secondary regrowth forest eventually becomes almost impossible to distinguish from primary forest. To a non-expert, that process probably takes no more than 30 or 40 years.
Here's my piece from @bopinion today linking these issues to the U.S.-China trade war: bloom.bg/31YzQSE

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More from @davidfickling

Oct 1
How did the US invent solar power and dominate it for 60 years, before giving it up to China over the past decade?

The answer is, IMO, quite different to the stories we have told ourselves in recent years. And it has important lessons for the future.🧵

bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-…
Over the past few months I traveled to the former and future heartlands of the solar industry — Hemlock, Michigan and Leshan, Sichuan — to understand this chart.

How, in the space of 15 years, did China go from a bit-player in this key solar raw material to complete dominance? Image
There’s a ready explanation used by trade warriors as justification for tariffs and other bans: Beijing set out to dominate this industry, and may want to use solar energy as a weapon the way Moscow uses gas.

That’s the rationale behind the Biden administration’s 50% tariffs.
Read 18 tweets
Jun 29
You might think that, installing more than half the world’s solar panels every year, China would be brimming over with solar installations.

One thing that really struck me, visiting over the past week, is how much unexploited potential is still there. 🧵 Image
Looking out of plane and train windows in China these days you will see a lot of scenes like the above one. And at first glance it looks like a solar farm.

But it’s actually a farm farm! Polytunnels like this — often quite cheap-looking, with open sides —are everywhere.
China has 60% of the world’s greenhouses, covering about 8,000sq km according to this study last year.

The better crop yields from this have been key to keeping the country fed.

earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/152874/…
Read 16 tweets
May 11
A thing people really do not understand about US companies fretting about their per-car EV losses stories is that this is almost entirely a spurious issue about the unique way US accountants treat certain types of R&D spending. 🧵

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
When you hear a Ford executive saying “we are losing $100k per EV” your bullshit detector should be flashing red hot.

An F-150 Lightning EV costs about $55k to buy. It does not cost anything like $155k to make.

It’s 98 kWh battery will be, at $140/kWh, a bit under $14k.
And battery prices are considerably below that right now. Ford should be getting it for $12k or less. A Chinese company will be paying below $10k.
Read 25 tweets
Mar 26
I've long been a huge fan of @michaelxpettis and agree with him about most aspects of China's economy, but I think there's good evidence that clean tech, at least, is seeing solid, operationally-financed, productivity-enhancing growth right now. 🧵

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
A pretty common argument you hear these days to justify trade restrictions on Chinese EVs, solar panels, and batteries is that the industries are only prospering because of unfair subsidies. I don't think that's supported by the data:

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
The argument goes something like this: China is awash in easy money from state banks; its renewable manufacturers are undercutting overseas rivals; ergo, its comparative advantage isn’t scale, efficiencies or innovation, but the availability of cheap government cash.
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Aug 15, 2023
You may think you've heard recently that demand for crude oil is running at record levels — but we're still below a peak we hit five years ago.

A 🧵 to explain why:

#oott #climate
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Last September I made one of the scariest calls I've made as a columnist — a prediction that consumption of crude oil had already peaked, despite predictions that this was a decade or more in the future:

To have some accountability I went for a two-part wager:

1. that output of crude oil and condensates had already peaked;

2. that output of crude oil, condensate and natural gas liquids had already peaked;

(we'll get to the terminology in a minute...)

Read 23 tweets
Jul 14, 2023
Let's talk polymetallic nodules!

A thread on something that's (depending on your taste) a looming environmental disaster, or a key to the energy transition.

(Spoiler: I think both arguments are wrong)

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
You may be inclined to ask, polymetallic whats?

Well, much of the ocean floor is strewn with these potato-sized pebbles, which appear to form through complex processes over millions of years and are rich in manganese and other useful base metals. Image
From time to time, people have thought about mining these nodules. The most famous case was an extraordinary Cold War caper in the 1970s, when Howard Hughes set up a fake nodule mining company as cover for a CIA operation to salvage a sunken Soviet nuclear submarine. Image
Read 29 tweets

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