, 10 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
I finally got around to going through some FOIA data on US Border Patrol apprehensions by nationality & month from FY1992-June FY2019. A few interesting patterns emerge when looking at monthly and not just yearly data...
First, Mexican apprehension numbers are striking in their historic yearly cyclical patterns. These patterns (highs in spring / lows in winter) continue through 2014 - even as they diminish in size. By contrast, Central American migration does not follow these annual cycles.
Here are Mexican apprehension numbers alone
Here are Central American numbers alone. While there are fluctuations in the numbers, some of the peaks are in summer (e.g. 2014), other peaks are in winter (2016), and some in the spring (2019).
Looking just at the past six years, combined Central American apprehensions have consistently rivaled Mexican apprehension numbers. But from March 2018 onward, CentAm numbers spiked upwards. Since Feb 2019, Guatemalan & Honduran monthly apps were almost double Mexican numbers.
From Sept 1992 through Feb 2017, apprehension numbers from El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala generally followed similar trends. However, over the past two years, the number of people apprehended from Honduras and Guatemala increased well beyond the # from El Salvador.
But apprehensions from El Salvador is a really interesting case. Apprehensions from the country slumped in February 2017, but spiked upward in 2019 to reach record highs. There has also been a recent increase in Salvadorans entering the United States in the El Paso sector.
Nicaragua is another interesting case, with apprehension numbers jumping upward in the past year. About 60 percent of Nicaraguans are arriving to the US in the Rio Grande Valley sector.
Also, Cubans - who historically have entered through ports of entry - are also now being apprehended by Border Patrol in record numbers (likely due to factors such as long wait times in metering, etc).

2019 app #s:

Jan: 14
Feb: 18
March: 606
April: 1898
May: 3307
June: 2267
There are also increases over the past year in the number of people arriving from other countries, such as Ecuador and Brazil.

Overall, FY2019 has been notable not just in high numbers but in the range of nationalities represented by the people arriving at the US-MX border.
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