Verdict: my reluctance was justified, and I should have held firm.
It vastly exaggerates what CA did, takes several of their garbage, baseless claims at face value and ultimately makes a pantomime villain out of a minor character.
I've spoken to mathematicians who are adamant that "psychographics" simply doesn't work.
CA were selling snake oil. Nobody has ever been able to prove that any of it worked.
The Great Hack laps it all up.
Not to mention infuriating snippets like:
"CA would say you've gotta target this state, that state"
"How would they know that?"
"That's their secret sauce!"
Erm, any political science graduate could build a model to determine which states to target.
Ultimately I'm with @OwenGleiberman: it's understandable that people were shaken by Trump's win and sought desperately to find a bogeyman, to reassure themselves that without this one evil data firm, there's no Trump. But it's not true variety.com/2019/film/revi…
I'd also strongly suggest that anyone who still buys the vastly exaggerated version of CA's role and capabilities reads @Soccermatics's excellent book Outnumbered, which delves into the details of CA's claims and other cases of overhyped algorithms goodreads.com/book/show/3676…
Two final points:
• When Obama campaign used FB users' friend lists & behavioural nudges to persuade voters in 2012, it was written up as smart use of data docs.house.gov/meetings/IF/IF…
• Read this thread by an Obama campaign staffer explaining what they did
I'm not making value judgments on how either the Obama or Trump campaigns used FB data to try to persuade voters, but you cannot say one was smart and good, and the other was evil.
Right or wrong, they're both industry-standard ways of using personal data to attempt to persuade.
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There’s been a lot of discussion lately about rising graduate unemployment.
I dug a little closer and a striking story emerged:
Unemployment is climbing among young graduate *men*, but college-educated young women are generally doing okay.
In fact, young men with a college degree now have the same unemployment rate as young men who didn’t go to college, completely erasing the graduate employment premium.
Whereas a healthy premium remains for young women.
What’s going on?
At first glance, this looks like a case of the growing masses of male computer science graduates being uniquely exposed to the rapid adoption of generative AI in the tech sector, and finding jobs harder to come by than earlier cohorts.
The number of people travelling from Europe to the US in recent weeks has plummeted by as much as 35%, as travellers have cancelled plans in response to Trump’s policies and rhetoric, and horror stories from the border.
Denmark saw one of the steepest declines, in an indication that anger over Trump’s hostility towards Greenland may be contributing to the steep drop-off in visitor numbers.
Corporate quotes are usually pretty dry, but the co-founder of major travel website Kayak wasn’t mincing his words:
Recent results from major international tests show that the average person’s capacity to process information, use reasoning and solve novel problems has been falling since around the mid 2010s.
What should we make of this?
Nobody would argue that the fundamental biology of the human brain has changed in that time span. People’s underlying intellectual capacity is surely undimmed.
But there is growing evidence that the extent to which people can practically apply that capacity has been diminishing.
For such an important topic, there’s remarkably little long-term data on attention spans, focus etc.
But one source that has consistently tracked this is the Monitoring The Future survey, which finds a steep rise in the % of people struggling to concentrate or learn new things.
NEW: The actions of Trump and Vance in recent weeks highlight something under-appreciated.
The American right is now ideologically closer to countries like Russia, Turkey and in some senses China, than to the rest of the west (even the conservative west).
In the 2000s, US Republicans thought about the world in similar ways to Britons, Europeans, Canadians.
This made for productive relationships regardless of who was in the White House.
The moderating layers around Trump #1 masked the divergence, but with Trump #2 it’s glaring.
In seven weeks Trump’s America has shattered decades-long western norms and blindsided other western leaders with abrupt policy changes.
This is because many of the values of Trump’s America are not the values of western liberal democracies.