, 16 tweets, 10 min read
"Why @jeremycorbyn should back Ken Clarke for PM".
Ahead of 27 Aug meeting between Corbyn & other anti #NoDealBrexit politicians, I'll argue why it is in his & Lab's interest to back Ken Clarke as a temporary PM to support a #PeoplesVote rather than a #GE19. 1/
Here's Corbyn's 14 Aug letter where he set out the case for him becoming temporary PM with the "aim of calling a General Election". As LOTO, he has a very strong, reasonable case to put himself forward here. 2/
However @joswinson didn't think he'd get enough support in HoC. A look at top 50 LibDem target seats shows that they are mainly Tory ones. Supporting JC4PM would be used as a weapon by Tories to scare off Remainer Tory voters Lib Dems need. 3/
What would happen in a GE though? @Gilesyb gives an idea of what can happen under FPTP. The Tories can win a good majority with 31% if the opposition is split as illustrated here. 4/ freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2019/08/12/the…
Yesterday's Sunday Times polls shows a strange paradox. A pro-NoDealBrexit Govt could be elected with a healthy majority where the electorate appear to be pro Remain now. 5/
The Sunday Times poll is consistent with others. @JohnRentoul estimates a 40-80 seat Tory majority on these figures. 6/
No wonder the Tories are thinking of a GE19 before or at the same time as the 17 Oct EU Council meeting. A flag-waving, drum thumping. WWII nostalgia-fest, NoDealBrexit "I'm Backing Boris" GE to hoover up more BrexitParty voters. 7/
@nmdacosta (a @BorisJohnson adviser) made the point in June about a new PM going to the EU Council meeting "hands unbound". What better way than having a GE so as to get a healthy majority & not relay on @duponline or even the ERG? 8/
If there was a GE in Oct, Lab would probably go into it with a "Labour Brexit" manifesto (albeit with a PV option). As it's estimated 40% of Lab members voted for other Parties (or abstained) in EUelections19, this could be a problem. 9/
The main problem for Lab is of course that a GE in Oct would probably result in an increased BoJo NoDealBrexit Tory majority Govt. That's why the "lesser evil" is to support a Ken Clarke led Govt which would organise a PV (Withdrawal Agreement vs Remain) instead of a GE. 10/
Such an anti-NoDealBrexit Govt would then agree to implement the WA where it to pass. For #WtoBrexit (aka NoDeal) advocates, you could argue for this during a transition period if WA wins in a GE. #Yellowhammer shows UK is not ready for it on 31 Oct. 11/
Instead of Lab having a big stinking Brexit row ahead of a GE in Oct, it would be far better to back a PV and have an "agree to disagree" policy as in 1975. 12/
The Tories are badly split with calls being made for a purge of Remainer Tories. Backing a PM Ken Clarke & a PV would help exacerbate those splits rather than Lab splits which is what a GE would do. 13/
For those who argue "How can Lab consider backing a Tory PM even for a short time?", I refer to this thread on LabTory Brexit negotiations. If these had happened last yr, Lab might well have helped keep May as PM & passed the WA. 14/
Corbyn's letter of 21 Aug for the meeting tomorrow was much more open about discussing "all tactics" & doing "everything we can to stop it". Imo, the best option is to back a "Popular Front against NoDealBrexit" Govt led by Ken Clarke. Other realistic suggestions r welcome. 15/
This post I wrote on it has other details and links but I've covered the main points in the thread. 16/ ENDS #NoDealBrexit #YellowHammer #KenClarke
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