Marcelo P. Lima Profile picture
Aug 26, 2019 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
This WSJ and @JoannaStern investigation into Amazon's counterfeit problem is great and very important. The solutions presented--Googling products, buying from brands, etc--are not. They are very hard to implement by consumers, don't scale, and ultimately won't solve the problem
Exhibit A: in the WSJ video, you can see a real and counterfeit product; he points out the packaging is indistinguishable. Kids are getting the fake toys and being exposed to 5x the amount of lead the government mandates, and other really bad stuff
How do we solve the problem?
- Require third party sellers to have their products tested in a U.S. government lab
- The lab issues an encrypted certificate that can't be spoofed or forged
- The certificate is recorded on a public blockchain for immutability
- The seller includes a digital key on its packaging (QR code)
- At the Amazon fulfillment center, scanners verify the key against the blockchain, ensuring the product meets U.S. government standards and lab results are positive
- Only certified products are sent to customers
- This introduces a lot of friction for sellers, but it's the cost of doing business
- Amazon customers want vast selection--yes--but they also want TRUST. It's better to have 1/3 the selection you can trust than 3x the number of goods you can't

cc @Amazon, @JeffBezos 👆🏻
I literally came up with this idea seconds after reading the piece, so it's probably full of holes, but seems plausible to me.

Amazon two-pizza teams FTW! Get on it.

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More from @MarceloPLima

Jun 7, 2023
What’s amazing about Phil Knight’s Shoe Dog is that his company (eventually named Nike) spent so many years on the brink of bankruptcy because of too much debt.

And then, this: “Essentially the American Selling Price law, or ASP, said that import duties on nylon shoes
“must be 20 percent of the manufacturing cost of the shoe—unless there’s a “similar shoe” manufactured by a competitor in the United States. In which case, the duty must be 20 percent of the competitor’s selling price.
“So all our competitors needed to do was make a few shoes in the United States, get them declared “similar,” then price them sky high—and boom. They could send our import duties sky high, too. And that’s just what they did.
Read 5 tweets
Aug 12, 2022
Updating my monthly thread on inflation and inflation expectations. Market participants are still expecting inflation to cool down, judging by 1y, 2y and 5 in 5y inflation swaps:
5 and 10y inflation breakevens are in agreement:
Gasoline prices now have a $3 handle; more work to do in diesel (orange). Unclear how much longer this trend can continue given the persistently high oil price ($92 vs a more "normal" price of ~$60/barrel):
Read 15 tweets
Aug 10, 2022
$SQ (Block) has chosen to vertically integrate to a much greater extent than $SHOP and as a result, gets a lot more revenue and gross profits. Both companies have similar market caps, EVs and GMV/GPV: Image
But look at how much more Block gets out of that "flow" in terms of gross profits, compared to Shopify: Image
Block has grown gross profits per share at a nice clip: Image
Read 6 tweets
Jul 12, 2022
I took a look at ARK's $ROKU model. The base case is a $605 price target by 2026 (current px: $89).

Key assumptions:
- 157m active accounts
- $88 ARPU
- 15% FCF margin
- 44x FCF

Thoughts 👇🏻
I think the number of active accounts is aggressive. It's hard to see the US grow very quickly; it feels somewhat saturated at ~61m accounts?

International should grow fast but...
International ARPU should be materially lower than US ARPU.

Advertising is highly correlated with GDP/capita and every ad business has much lower CPMs internationally than in the US.

I think $88 in ARPU in the US is reachable... but not globally on a blended basis.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 7, 2022
Interesting to see the Coatue slides.

They believe markets will decline another ~20% after earnings revisions come down and every sector declines.

That's possible. They think it's very likely.

On the other hand... 👇🏻
Interesting to see a few contrary opinions:

On May 24 Orlando Bravo went on CNBC and said,

"For us in private equity, as a buyer and operator of software companies, this environment of five times forward revenue is the buying opportunity of a lifetime."
5x revenue is roughly where the aggregate of the SaaS index is right now, perhaps a bit higher.

Note that Bravo's firm acquired SailPoint and Anaplan at ~13x forward revenues ImageImage
Read 11 tweets
Feb 24, 2022
Some thoughts on $LMND earnings today:

Marketing efficiency is holding up, with estimated LTV/CAC at 2.3x: Image
Pace of customer adds is good: Image
At first glance, FY22 guidance is low:

$540m of IFP is 42% YoY growth, a massive decel from 78% growth in 2021.

Assuming they add at least 428k customers (see prev chart), would imply only 9% growth in premium/cust, down from 25% growth in 2021.
Read 9 tweets

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