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Chad P. Bown Profile picture
@ChadBown
Aug 26, 2019 • 7 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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The Tale of Two Tariff Announcements

August 23, 2019: As expected, China announces a fairly modest** tariff retaliation. Trump then immediately escalates by announcing even more new tariffs.

My latest

1/
 piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
Overall, China’s average tariff applied to US exports during the trade war
• Jan 2018: 8.0%
• Today: 20.7%
• Sept 1, 2019: 21.8%
• Dec 15, 2019: 25.9%

2/
China’s next tariffs hit some new products, like autos and petroleum.

But aircraft, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals remain mostly untouched.

The soybean tariff increase is hugely symbolic, but economically meaningless

(Tariffs so far had already stopped US exports)

3/
**Big news is China’s retaliatory tariffs on autos.

China suspended those as a sign of goodwill on Jan 1, 2019.

Despite Trump’s 2019 antics, China did not take the bait. Until now.

On Dec 15, Chinese tariffs hit $14 billion of US auto exports, some tariffs increase to 50%

4/
Trump's response to China's tariff increase?

More tariffs. Again.

Overall, Trump’s tariffs on China
• Jan 2018: 3.1%
• Today: 18.3%
• Sept 1, 2019: 21.2%
• Oct 1, 2019: 22.1%
• Dec 15, 2019: 24.3%

5/
Trump’s August 23 tariff announcement only increased the tariff RATES imposed on Sept 1, Oct 1, and Dec 15.

He did not add any new products.

By December 15, nearly all US imports from China will be covered by Trump’s tariffs.

6/
The purpose and next steps in Trump’s trade war remain unknown.

The economic significance of these NEXT tariffs in the offing are not.

ENDS /
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…

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More from @ChadBown

Chad P. Bown Profile picture
Aug 14, 2023
The Inflation Reduction Act went into effect one year ago Wednesday (Aug 16, 2022). In Korea and Europe, anger quickly emerged when it seemed IRA's tax credits for electric vehicles would discriminate against their exports.

Yet US imports of EVs have boomed.

What happened? 1/5 Image
Dec 29, 2022: Treasury clarifies that **leased** EVs qualify for tax credits under a separate (Section 45W) provision of IRA.

Tax credit eligibility under 45W does NOT require the EV be assembled in North America.

So leased EVs imported from Europe or Korea were eligible... 2/5 Image
The result?

Leases as a share of new *S Korean assembled* EVs entering US market:

Dec 2022: 3%
...
Apr 2023: 42%

Leases as a share of new *European assembled* EVs entering US market:

Dec 2022: 30%
...
Apr 2023: 63%

3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
Chad P. Bown Profile picture
May 4, 2023
The Inflation Reduction Act provoked a major EU-US spat over subsidies for electric vehicle supply chains. The Biden administration addressed some EU concerns by writing controversial rules to implement the law. So then what happened?

My latest 1/
piie.com/publications/w…
First, some background on electric vehicles (EVs).

US really needs to cut tailpipe emissions to meet Paris climate goals.

US consumers have been slow to switch from internal combustion engine cars to EVs. In 2021, only 5% of new US vehicles were EVs.

China: 16%
EU: 18%

2/ Image
It's not as if American consumers were failing to adopt EVs - and reduce CO2 emissions - because the United States was exporting massive US production to the rest of the world.

No, US electric vehicle EXPORTS lagged China and the EU too.

The US needed to do something.

3/ Image
Read 13 tweets
Chad P. Bown Profile picture
Mar 16, 2023
US exports to China cratered during Trump’s trade war, and American sales of goods and services continue to suffer. Yet, US exports to China somehow reached "record levels" in 2022. Wait, wut?

Making sense of China's slow decoupling.

My latest 1/ 🧵
piie.com/blogs/realtime…
China bought none of the extra $200 billion of US exports in Trump's "phase one" deal. In 2022, US exports to China improved only slightly.

US exports to China in 2022 are now 23% lower than if they had grown at the same rate as China’s imports from the world over 2018–22... 2/
There is no sign that US *MANUFACTURING* exports will ever go back to pre-trade war trajectory. In 2022, they fell 3%.

US exports of semiconductor equipment and chips finally slowed (demand, export controls). Medical supplies too.

Aircraft and autos continue to struggle...3/
Read 9 tweets
Chad P. Bown Profile picture
Nov 14, 2022
As Biden and Xi meet in person, here is a recap of the status of US-China trade relations

FACTS from data (🧵, 1/6)
nytimes.com/live/2022/11/1…
TARIFFS:

Most US-China trade war tariffs imposed over 2018-19 remain in place:
- US average tariffs are now 19.3%, covering 66.4% of US imports from China
- Chinese average tariffs on US exports are now 21.2%, covering 58.3% of imports from US

2/6
 piie.com/research/piie-…
US-CHINA PHASE ONE TRADE AGREEMENT:

China bought none of the extra $200 billion of US exports in Trump's trade deal (February 2022)

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Chad P. Bown Profile picture
Oct 20, 2022
US imports of some Chinese products have tanked. Others are higher than ever. How Trump’s selective use of tariffs continues to matter for the question about US-China decoupling.

My new look at the data 1/ 🧵
piie.com/blogs/realtime…
Trump kicked off the trade war with 25% tariffs in July 2018.

Today, US imports from China remain well below pre-trade war trend, and have only just returned to pre-trade war levels.

US imports from rest of the world are above trend and 38% higher than pre-trade war. 2/ Image
US imports from China of goods currently facing a 25% tariff (Lists 1, 2, and 3) remain 22% below pre-trade war levels.

US imports of those same products from the rest of the world are now 34% higher pre-trade war levels.

Yes, the US tariffs are making an impact... 3/ Image
Read 22 tweets
Chad P. Bown Profile picture
Sep 12, 2022
What has happened to US exports to China since Trump's $200 billion purchase agreement ended on Dec 31, 2021?

A number of new (and old) factors have strangled US export growth to China in 2022. The future looks grim.

My latest (THREAD) 1/n
piie.com/blogs/blog/fir…
Quick Phase One summary:

US exports increased in 2020–21 relative to the nadir of the 2018–19 trade war. But in the end, China bought none of the additional $200 billion of US goods and services it committed to purchase under Trump's agreement... 2/n

Today's headline:

Trade flows have not improved in 2022. US goods exports to China through July remain only at 2021 levels.

That is about 65% of the *2021* year-to-date target for Phase One.

(NB: There is no legal target for 2022, those ended Dec 31, 2021... ) 3/n
Read 12 tweets

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