1/ Meetings between McCabe's attorneys and DOJ bigwigs suggest an indictment is likely. Unless the criminal investigation yielded new evidence beyond what was in the OIG report, it will be a very tough prosecution for the DOJ.
2/ If McCabe is charged, you should expect his team to take this case to trial and argue that the prosecution is politically motivated. DOJ will try to keep this out of the trial, because the motivations of the prosecutor are technically not relevant to the jury.
3/ Good trial lawyers will find ways to make it relevant or to otherwise slip it in.
Absent some strong new evidence that is not yet public, this is a very risky prosecution for DOJ. Unless McCabe is inclined to cut a deal, there is a good chance DOJ fails.
Absent some strong new evidence that is not yet public, this is a very risky prosecution for DOJ. Unless McCabe is inclined to cut a deal, there is a good chance DOJ fails.
4/ Trump's public comments also present a risk for DOJ. McCabe will likely argue that Trump has poisoned the jury pool. Typically prosecutors are very careful about what they say about a defendant. McCabe has a strong argument Trump makes it hard for him to have a fair trial.
5/ It's odd that two prosecutors assigned to this prosecution recently left the case. Typically prosecutors want to handle difficult, high-profile cases and leave after an indictment or trial, not before. It could suggest a discomfort or disagreement about the case.
6/ Although the DOJ usually prevails, this case appears ripe for a defense win. If McCabe is indicted, expect a bumpy road ahead for prosecutors, particularly if Trump continues to bash McCabe publicly after indictment. /end
