Matthew Chapman Profile picture
Aug 27, 2019 3 tweets 1 min read Read on X
One of the enduring myths about the Great Depression is that Herbert Hoover just sat on his haunches and did nothing.

Actually it would have been better if he had. He took active measures to reorganize the economy, but most of his key reforms just made things worse.
In fact, at the beginning of the decade, there were signs that things were recovering before Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley tariffs.

That's when the bottom really fell out and unemployment skyrocketed to 25% — when Hoover made it impossible for people to buy things!
I say this because if we have a recession now, there is a very good chance that Trump will do the same thing. He'll just ratchet up tariffs and be content with the fact that almost no one can buy anything or get a job, but hey, at least the few jobs and goods left are American.

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More from @fawfulfan

Jul 4
All right. Here is my long, nuanced take on the last week of Biden panic and media chaos.

I'm probably going to make a lot of people on every side mad with at least part of what I have to say here.
1) Biden is genuinely older than he was, does not have the physical stamina he used to, and it is apparent in his speeches.

2) It is also apparent in his speeches he is cognitively fine. He answers questions sharply and with policy nuance. He just sounds tired doing it.
3) Biden is inherently distrustful of elite journalists and don't give them the access they believe they deserve.

4) This has caused a reporter vendetta that is fueling the current media cycle.
Read 11 tweets
May 16
With Detroit seeing a population and economic rebound, it's worth exploring what exactly caused the city to fall so hard — because there are REALLY important lessons for a lot of other U.S. cities, some of which are making similar mistakes to Detroit and not realizing it.
So why did Detroit go bankrupt?

The standard answer that politicians and economists will give you is "the auto industry changed, there weren't as many jobs as there used to be, so the population declined."

This is true, but it's really not the whole story.
The follow-up question here, that rarely gets asked, is, WHY does a population crash mean the city goes bankrupt? There are fewer taxpayers, sure, but there's also fewer people using public services, so shouldn't it all kind of even out?
Read 16 tweets
May 9
Biden gave Netanyahu months — literally months — to explain what his plan was for keeping the civilians he forcibly evacuated to Rafah safe if they bomb that area.

He was very clear they needed to have that plan or we'd cut him off.

Netanyahu ignored him. Totally blew him off.
The U.S. has *already* at this point bent several of its own laws that require countries receiving our weapons sales to allow a certain level of humanitarian aid in, to keep Israel supplied for a war that it absolutely has the money and manufacturing to prosecute 100% on its own.
Netanyahu has no one to blame but himself for Biden losing his patience and drawing a line on invading Rafah.

Yes, Hamas has been a bad faith actor. Yes, they started the war. That doesn't mean Israel gets a pass to flatten civilians in the city ISRAEL TOLD THEM TO GO TO.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 29
Actually, it's bad that California's average property tax rate is that low. Really bad.

Excessively low property taxes is a big reason why California is so unaffordable for middle-class workers, and why so many of them are moving to Texas.

Let me explain.
Ever since Proposition 13 set hard limits on property taxes in California, cities there have had a big problem. Previously when they had budget deficits on infrastructure, education and public services, they could raise property taxes to plug the gap. But now, they can't do that.
So what these cities do is, instead of taxing the people who own the houses, they tax the developers building the houses. It's called "impact fees." Developers have to pay cities tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars for every unit of housing they build.
Read 7 tweets
Feb 20
Sigh... every year I have to explain this. THIS PART OF THE TAX CODE HAS A VERY GOOD REASON FOR EXISTING.

Of course the IRS doesn't expect criminals to follow it. The idea is that when they DON'T follow it, they can then get charged with tax evasion on top of their other crimes.
Organized crime bosses are hard to prosecute because they can kill, threaten, or intimidate any witnesses to their crimes.

But it's MUCH harder for them to beat tax evasion. Because they clearly have the money, and clearly didn't file a tax return and declare how they earned it.
That is why this provision exists. So that in the event that a mobster silences anyone who could prove their murder, racketeering, etc, the IRS can still nail them for not reporting how they got their ill-gotten gains.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 13
Neither side wants "a secular binational one state solution for Jews AND Palestinians" because both sides are (rightly) terrified of what would happen if the other elected a majority to rule over that combined country.

The *only* path to peace is both of them getting a state.
When either side says "one state solution," they mean the other side being ethnically cleansed.

They do not mean a heterodox secular state where everyone enjoys full and equal rights.

Even *if* such a state were created, it would only last a few years and plunge into civil war.
There are only three ways to resolve this conflict permanently.

1. One state of Palestine, that ethnically cleanses the Israelis.
2. One state of Israel, that ethnically cleanses the Palestinians.
3. Two states.

That's it. Those are the choices.

I choose Option 3.
Read 4 tweets

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