Nate Tobik Profile picture
Aug 27, 2019 7 tweets 1 min read Read on X
I think you can reduce scuttlebutt/in-depth DD to two factors:

1) How good is the sales team
2) How good is expense control

Most analysts can identify #2 easily and focus on that. But #1 is as if not more important.
Lumped into #1 is marketing as well. How is a company identifying prospects, warming them, and then selling.

What is their sales process? What's their close rate, most common objections, how is the team organized, leads tracked etc.
I've found investors who are/were entrepreneurs or business owners "get" this and often identify opportunities the market misses because they see talent.

Investors usually see sales as a "solved problem" but don't realize how unsophisticated most companies are.
Most companies are waiting for the phone to ring, or farming their existing and past customer list. I'm not just talking small companies, some of the worst sales staff I've met are larger "successful/compounder" enterprise sales people who are utterly clueless.
They have a giant book that was given to them and they are taking orders. They have no idea how to break into a new relationship.

Everyone wants to own good businesses, but good businesses aren't the ones focused on how much napkins cost in the break room.
They have a sales and marketing team that knows how to grow brand new relationships and do it profitably for the company.

The problem is for most investors/analysts this is extremely hard so they focus on the easy stuff, this is where value is added, spend the time & learn.
Best way to learn? Go sell stuff! Sell something, anything.

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More from @oddballstocks

Nov 20, 2022
Great comments on community banking.

What we tell clients trying to win business is you need a reason to call and there needs to be an inflection point in their business.
What does this mean? If a client is perfectly happy with their bank they won’t switch relationships.

When there is an inflection point a borrower will think about their loan and relationship, measure and value it. This is where banks can win.
What are inflection points?

-Prospects loan is maturing/ballooning and they are thinking about service products.
-prospect’s bank closed a branch but our bank hasn’t. Service isn’t as local to them anymore.
-Prospect has expanded their business significantly
Read 6 tweets
Mar 29, 2022
Anyone remember the Magic Formula by Greenblatt?

It was a simple quant method that supposedly had these enormous returns in the 17% per year range.
I read the book about it in 2007, was fascinated and found a bunch of resources online.

There were some cult followers who had a yahoo groups email list with a TON of data, I joined.
I spend a few months trying to figure out how exactly to execute this strategy as a small test. Results seemed too good to be true.

Practitioners had enormous essays about best times to buy/sell and ways to enhance things.
Read 12 tweets
Jun 4, 2021
Hearing very mixed things on the mortgage moratorium.

Wells/BAC/JPM saying that almost no loans on forbearance and it isn't an issue, a giant NBD.

Numbers I've seen floating around are about 2m loans 90 days + past due.
According to FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR

There is a 4.4 month supply right now. In 2020 6.5m houses were sold.

A rough back of the envelop is if the 2.1m houses in forbearance come on market we'll be looking at a 33% supply increase.
The demand pressure on the limited housing supply should ease. Question is what happens to house prices?

Is there enough demand to absorb that increase?

Like most things if it's stretched over time I think the market will absorb without a problem.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 6, 2020
This is hilarious, like taking a car with a broken radiator and saying "if we paint it then it'll be fine.."
I have extensive experience with Crown. Helped write their core system that manages their assets as well as prices tower space.

The pricing model is very sophisticated and it does take into account ROIC.
Interestingly the internal ROIC is stringently high.

Elliott didn't go far enough into the past. CCI has had a history of incinerating cash with fiber assets.
Read 15 tweets
Jun 26, 2020
Good post with some great points. I have lost count the number of times I've heard "we just hired a young person to do some marketing for us.."

1) It's always someone young
2) Execs view them as a black box but expect some sort of magical results via Facebook/Insta
3) In these cases marketing is never given much of a budget or even freedom to try things

Hhiring someone young isn't a bad move. The problem is they have a ton of great ideas that the bank won't let them execute on. Give them freedom!
One of the worst things a company can do is hire someone who is excited and has great ideas and then kill the ideas.

When I can work my way into talking with these young marketers they are exploding with ideas and creativity
Read 17 tweets
Apr 29, 2020
Some really good takes on what the economy is really like.

Also some epic bad takes from techies on why the market is where it is.

news.ycombinator.com/item?id=230183…
If you don't want to skim the thread I will summarize:

I think my favorite is that the market is "cheap" based on 2025 earnings.

Also a lot of BTFD sentiment - i.e. the strategy has never failed.
Another paraphrase "who cares about earnings for 3 to 4 years if you retire in 20 years.."

Some are advocating that since a lot of companies will BK the survivors will be extremely strong, and the market is pricing this.
Read 9 tweets

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