Let me explain the 1.76 lakh cr transfer 4m RBI to government
Its split into 2,
(A) 1.23L cr of dividends paid out from the profit of this year.
(B) 52K cr of capital paid out (Older profits accumulated n have become a large reserve of which 52,600 was paid out)
(1/n)
(A) Let’s first try and understand the 1.23 lakh cr dividend which is higher than the average dividend paid (60-65k cr.) over the last 5 years. How could the RBI afford to pay so much divided? (2/n)
So this year RBI made huge profits, how?
(a) Higher OMOs - RBI bought a lot of bonds from the markets to infuse liquidity in the system. When RBI owns more bonds, it received higher interest as income. (3/n)
(b) Repo - Because liquidity was tight, banks were also borrowing heavily from RBI and paying interest to RBI. This also increased RBIs income
(c) Printing cash - RBI printed 2.5 lakh cr cash. The printing cost was roughly 2.5 cr, everything else becomes profit. (4/n)
(B) Let’s now try and understand the 52,600 cr paid out of capital.
RBI has accumulated reserves (capital) of 10 lakh cr. of which 7 lakh cr is revaluation reserves and 3 lakhs is contingency reserves. (5/n)
What is Revaluation Reserves?
Notional profit. Assume RBI bought gold at 100 and today gold is 250 so RBI is making a 150 profit, this 150 is Revaluation Reserves. So all the profit on Gold, Dollars and Bonds bought by RBI becomes the Revaluation Reserves. (6/n)
What is contingency Reserve?
RBI keeps aside a small portion every year as a reserve to use in times of a crises. So tomorrow if we face a Lehman like crises, RBI can use this reserve revive an NBFC, Bank or lend to a MF. (7/n)
Jalan committee recommend RBI should have 5.5% - 6.5% of its balance sheet as contingency reserves (revaluation is not discussed as it’s only on paper). So 5.5% of 45 lakh cr (RBIs balance sheet) is some 2.45L cr. 3 - 2.45 ~ 52k cr was paid out from the contingency reserve. (n/n)
RBI is getting very active & making sure it is supporting the market much faster than it has in the past
RBI announced 2 things,
- 1,00,000 cr of OMO
- 87,000 cr of USD/INR Swap
Let me explain what it means in this 🧵 (1/4)
Liquidity in the banking sector is under serious stress. On the 4th of March the liquidity deficit was ~20K cr. Liquidity has been deficit because of,
- Tax Outflows (Taking money out from the bank)
- Heavy Selling by FII’s (Taking money back)
- Lower government spending (Not receiving more rupees in the market)
- RBI Selling $ in the market (sucking out rupee liquidity) (2/4)
To increase liquidity in the banking sector, RBI is doing OMO + Currency Swaps.
(1) 1,00,000 cr of OMO
- OMO means open market operations
- In this the RBI will buy bonds (Treasury Bills) from the banks before the maturity & give banks a 1L cr of liquidity before it matures
- This will increase the rupee liquidity in the market (3/4)
Let me tell you a story of the most brutal correction in India, it was the dot com bubble. Not only because markets corrected 54% but also because it lasted for 19 months.
Lets see what an SIP investor would have experienced (1/6)
If you were very smart & started your 25,000 SIP at the exact BOTTOM of the market cycle in Sep 2001 from where the correction ended & markets started going up & you stayed invested till Dec 2024, you would have invested 70 L over 280 months & today that would have become 5.50 cr. at the actual market returns. (2/6)
BUT, lets say you were unlucky & started at the TOP of the market cycle in Feb 2000 from where the 54% market correction started but stayed invested till Dec 2024, you would have invested 74.75 L over 299 months & today that would have become 6.70 cr at the actual market returns. (3/6)
What’s happening with Gold & what should you do? A quick 🧵
Gold has been going up because of these 4 reasons,
(1) US trade war (2) Central bank buying (3) Rupee Depreciation (4) Falling rates (1/n)
(1) US Trade War - There is policy uncertainty because of this. China, Mexico & Canada form close to 40% of America's trade partnership. Trade war leads to a risk off environment (people are scared to take risk in equity) + increase in inflation (as imports from China, Mexico & Canada becomes expensive). This led to Gold going up (2/n)
(2) Central Bank Buying - Post sanctions by US / G7 on Russia, central banks buying Gold & trying to reduce US dollar as reserves is increasing (De Dollarisation). Just the last Quarter, Central Banks bought 333 T of Gold (3/n)
Bond markets are expecting higher inflation with trump winning & hence the yields are going up, not a good sign for India equity. Let me explain (1/4)
(1) If Trump increases duty, it is inflationary as the imports will become costly & hence yields are going up
(2) If trump reduces corporate taxes, it means more stress on the government finances, more borrowings & hence higher yields (2/4)
While FED main continue to lower rates, the rate cut cycle will reduce in an inflationary situation. Remember FED can only impacts the shorter end of the curve with rate cuts. The longer end of the curve is market determined & hence the yields are up because markets feel inflation is coming back with Trump (3/4)
Continuing our Mutual Fund Education Series, here’s the 3rd thread; this will demystify the Hybrid Mutual Fund categories for you.
Do ‘re-tweet’ & help us educate more investors to make the right investing decisions (1/9)
(Q1) What are Hybrid Funds?
Hybrid funds are funds, which invest in multiple asset classes like
- Equity
- Debt
- Gold
- Preference Shares
- REITs & InvITs
With an objective to reduce volatility (vs pure equity funds) & try an generate better risk adjusted returns (2/9)
(Q2) Types of Hybrid Funds?
- Conservative Hybrid Fund
- Balanced Hybrid Fund
- Aggressive Hybrid Fund
- Dynamic Asset Allocation (DAAF) or Balanced Advantage Fund (BAF)
- Multi Asset Allocation Fund
- Arbitrage Fund
- Equity Savings Fund (3/9)