, 16 tweets, 10 min read Read on Twitter
Thread: It's clear that #Pakistan plans a massive insurgency campaign against #India that would be backed by the army. India's response should be to retaliate with much greater force & take the fight to Pakistan's territory including POK. newsx.com/amp/national/j…
#Pakistan is behaving exactly as #India expected after the abrogation of article 370. They either do it or they lose face. India is doing the moves, Pakistan is only reacting and doesn't have any good choices. It's a lose - lose situation for Pak.
#Pakistan is actually playing into #India's game. Pak's insurgency & supportive military actions will show Pak as the aggressor and India's retake of Pak occupied Kashmir in retaliation for such actions will be totally accepted. India already gamed the whole scenario.
People need to understand that #India is playing a big game here. Article 370 is only one part. The #US withdraw from #Afghanistan will bring tons of Jihadis into Kashmir, so India needs to turn the tables on that big time. What used to work, no longer works.
What this means is that #India has no choice but to take the initiative & change the Kashmir situation for good. Article 370 was the first step. Once the situation allows, taking over the eastern part of the POK and connecting with Afghanistan is imperative or Afg falls.
The US plans to withdraw from Afg made this new Indian policy necessary. Trump just cancelled the peace plan with the Taliban, but negotiations continue. This is good for India for now, but we can't say that the US wont make a deal & withdraw, so the game plan continues.
The implication of this peace agreement between the Taliban & US will be felt across South Asia. This is the context in which India is firming up its grip in Kashmir. With the Taliban in control of Afg, #India had to make a big strategic move where article 370 was the first step.
In such scenario of heavy warfare, the end game should be a full or significant Indian takeover of #Pakistan occupied Kashmir and a direct land route from #India to #Afghanistan, something that India needs to counter the Pak-Taliban efforts in Afghanistan.
If things go as expected, with heavy warfare in Kashmir, we could expect that #India will cut off the CPEC corridor road from #China into Pak, which runs through Kashmir and at one point, it's only 80 Km from the LOC (heavy mountain area). Look at the map 👇👇👇
Need to keep in mind that when the Taliban controls #Afghanistan, it'll be not only #Pakistan that will control Afg, but also #China, read my thread here about the special relationship between China & the Taliban 👇👇👇
In such case of #India taking over just the eastern part of POK & connecting with #Afghanistan, #US reliance on #Pakistan to access Afghanistan gets reduced & Pakistan's value for #USA is also reduced. If taking the area of Pak next to POK, then there are better roads to Afg.
To be clear, the area of Afg that connects with Kashmir, the Wakhan corridor, it's only a fair weather road for now, but the Chinese have big plans for it. They want a direct road to Afg & plan an all weather road through the mountains. Afg is also planning a railroad through it.
So, give it time and connecting with the Wakhan corridor will be a good way to connect with Afg. The Chinese want a direct route to Afg that is not dependent on Pakistan. Afghanistan wants the same and also to connect with India.
Once there is a connection with the Wakhan corridor, the rest of Afghanistan will be readily accessible since there is a new, good road under construction to link it with Afg main road network as the map shows & rail is also planned.
Right now, there are 2 roads connecting POK with the Wakhan corridor as the map shows. There is a better road further west in the Pak area next to POK, which is a good reason to take that area. Going further west to bypass the Wakhan corridor is even better.
What would be China's reaction to India taking POK? Difficult to say, but as it is, China already has plenty of problems, a bad economy getting worse, a lot of tension with US, etc. They'll think real hard before betting everything on Pakistan.
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