1. Never go long a SPAC (aside from an arbitrage) 2. Never go long a merger deal that has a buyside vote 3. Never buy on new lows and never sell / short on new highs 4. Never short a story stock unless the story (and chart) has broken
5. Never ever get emotional about a stock 6. Never buy preferred shares (unless for an arb / liquidation) 7. Liquidations will always take twice as long and proceeds will be less than expected 8. Never sell a stock to "take profits". Why bench your best player, coach?
9. Never buy a stock based off a sell-side reco 10. The more complex the DCF, the worse the returns 11. Keep each short <2%. Life's too short (pun intended) to be constantly stressed af 12. No one knows anything. Even the best are wrong often.
13. Do your own work! No one else will make money for you (only off you) 14. Constantly evolve. No such thing as "style drift", only progression 15. Do it for the love of the game. Nothing else
16. If a stock you own is subject to a bidding war, never sell. You're the beneficiary of the "auction winner's curse"
17. The stock market is not the economy. Never confuse the two.
18. Never buy a CVR. Just don't. And if you're issued a contingent value right, sell it.
19. Never utilize leverage for cryptocurrency investments. They are risky enough unleveraged.
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Note that the "Tariffs charged to the U.S.A." are not tariffs at all
They are the U.S. trade deficit divided by U.S. imports from that country
For example:
Trade deficit with China ($295.4 billion) / US imports from China ($438.9 billion) = 67%
Europe: $235.6 / $605.8 = 39%
This actually may be the biggest economic blunder of all time. To set a level of "reciprocal" tariffs based on completely incoherent non-tariff calculations is incomprehensible.
Do they have no economists in house?
$1 trillion+ of equity market value wiped out based on what looks to be the biggest spreadsheet error in history
Given the gravity of the spreadsheet error and the misguided policy it created (misplaced tariffs), it's probably a good idea to admit the mistake and cancel it all
Warren Buffett just dropped his annual letter to shareholders
Here are my notes 🧵
“praise by name, criticize by category.”
Great leadership advice to follow when giving feedback
2/
Buffett starts on mistakes, demonstrating accountability and a drive for improvement:
"During the 2019-23 period, I have used the words “mistake” or “error” 16 times in my letters to you. Many other huge companies have never used either word over that span"
With the looming 1% excise tax coming into effect in 2023, this is what I would do as a SPAC sponsor:
🧵 1/
Irrespective of deadline, stage an extension vote before year end 2022. Offer "game theory" redemption economics (max $ amount or $/share amount) to encourage small # of non-redeemers
This allows a large redemption with no potential excise tax while extending deal runway
2/
This will "right size" the SPAC while giving time for a deal in a better market with less competition (H2 2023)
The excise tax on a $500 million SPAC is $5 million. If redeemed down to $25 million trust, the excise tax will be just $250k
3/
$LOGC to be acquired by $AZN for $2.07 cash per share, 666.7% premium, $68.2 million
$OIIM to be acquired by management for $5.00 cash per share, 55.3% premium, $145.9 million
$SAVE / $JBLUE $2.50 special dividend had Sept 9 ex-date
1/
**Oct 3 M&A Update** (Cont'd)
$MYOV received non-binding proposal from Sumitomo Pharma for $22.75 cash per share, 26.7% premium, $2.5 billion, rejected as it “significantly undervalues the Company”
$CHNG / $UNH deal closed
$CTXS / Vista Equity / Evergreen Coast deal closed
2/
**Oct 3 M&A Update** (Cont'd)
$ABTX / $CBTX deal closed
$HIL / Global Infrastructure Solutions filed DEFM14a, vote Nov 2, cleared HSR, closing Q4
$GBT / $PFE shareholders approved deal, closing Oct 5
$FSTX / Sino Biopharmaceutical cleared UK NSIA
3/