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Aramco Prod. Thread: High-Freq. Oil Prod. data & further insights building on podcast w/@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr …going to simplify some stuff (I just don’t have the space)…will cite where I still have the links #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape

@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 1) Does our data align with official Aramco statements? To be clear, as we have shared with clients (last Sunday/Monday/Tuesday) and the media (later on), so far, our High-Frequency Oil Production Monitor’s data aligns with Aramco’s official statements #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 2) about how fast/when prod. at various facilities was restored. Notably, we detected Khurais prod. w/in 24 hours of the attacks (worldoil.com/news/2019/9/20…) and we detected 50%+ of total prod. from affected facilities returning during the couple days #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 3) prior to the Tuesday Aramco press conference. Both are consistent with Aramco statements. #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 4) What are the starting point numbers? 5.7 mbpd was from “affected fields” and Abqaiq was processing 4.5 mbpd per Aramco (4.9 mbpd was later stated as 4.5 in English). The delta, 1.2 mbpd is from Khurais just prior to the attacks… #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 5) our data indicates that Khurais had been undergoing some form of field work/maintenance and had been ramping during the week preceding the attack towards max capacity. Khurais “proper” capacity is 1.25 mbpd and Abu Jifan/Mazilij is ~200 kbpd, hence #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 6) the commonly used 1.45 mbpd for “Khurais.” As of Aramco’s Tuesday press conference, they stated 2 mbpd was being processed at Abqaiq, that Abqaiq and Khurais were 2.5 mbpd, and that 50%+ (~2.85 mbpd in total) was restored…#OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 7) …this is consistent with our detected signal intelligence… #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 8) What’s up with Khurais? We know, and have been clarifying with clients, that Khurais processes its crude onsite…to wit from the World Oil/Bloomberg article linked above and here (worldoil.com/news/2019/9/20…) #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 9) that per Aramco “the Khurais field has a max output capacity of 1.45 Mbpd and processes all of its oil on site, according to Al Abdulkareem (Aramco’s GM for the Southern area oil operation).” This is also supported by Aramco facility diagrams. #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 10) Moreover, given 1-2 of Khurais’ crude stabilization units were severely damaged per Aramco in the World Oil/Bloomberg article (worldoil.com/news/2019/9/20…), #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 11) it’s unlikely Khurais is yet above 50%-65% despite some reports of it being over 80% (unless the quotations are wrong that “One of the columns shown to reporters was a charred wreck, and at least one other was even more badly damaged, he said.”) #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 12)…crucially, if some Khurais raw crude can be transported to Abqaiq or other facilities then the wells at Khurais could certainly produce above functioning processing capacity at Khurais #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 13) Is Shaybah Constrained by Abqaiq? Well, to start on Shaybah, it is helpful to quickly discuss Abqaiq, namely why the function of spheroids/stabilization towers is necessary B4 shipping crude...AFTER crude is degassed (i.e., gas not in solution) #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 14) desalted, & dehydrated, but B4 crude can easily be stored/shipped, dissolved gas-in-solution (light/intermediate hydrocarbons) needs 2B removed to stabilize the stream & hydrogen sulfide (H2S) must be removed to sweeten/further stabilize the stream#OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 15) …this is the “dual process” of stabilizing/sweeting that Abqaiq’s spheroid-to-stabilization tower process achieves… •#OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 16) Key Point: Given most partial pressure of crude streams comes from low-boiling compounds (e.g., light/intermediate hydrocarbons and H2S), once they are removed, pressure is largely stabilized (again, over simplifying). #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 17) Key specs for stabilized oil are Reid Vapor Pressure (“RVP”) and H2S content. This is a simple, yet helpful link for more on stabilization and sweetening: arab-oil-naturalgas.com/crude-oil-swee… #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 18) To be clear, at Abqaiq, the bulk of pressure is removed in the spheroids and the resultant off-gas becomes the bulk of the feedstock for the NGL units…thus, “remove the NGL de-pressure the crude” to oversimplify. #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 19) The towers then remove the remainder of the gasses and H2S…but the bulk of pressure is relieved when NGLS are removed (key point for Shaybah) #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 20) Now, most diagrams from Aramco show Shaybah flowing into Abqaiq, which is true, the crude flows there via a long pipeline…most media articles report that Abqaiq processes Shaybah crude. #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 21) But, let’s review the facts on the ground for Shaybah crude because there is more than meets the eye here…caveat, we do not have 100% confirmation that this is the case, #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 22) , so the following about Shaybah is based on our detected Shaybah production and our research into the facility’s changes over the years… #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 23) Back in 2004, at Shaybah, some LPG (i.e., light NGLs) was being removed and crucially, “Shaybah crude is partially stabilized and shipped to Abqaiq where some residual gas and NGLs are stripped out of the production stream before #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 24) before entering Aramco’s oil pipeline system.” per this Oil & Gas Journal article webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache… #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 25) Importantly, Shaybah produces 42 API Arab Extra Light and “is virtually sulfur-free” (~0.7% to 1.0% sulfur, similar to the export grade of which it is a part, Arab Extra Light) and very high in gasoline content…webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache… #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 26) The KEY takeaways are that the crude is clearly very low sulfur, some LPG/NGLs were already being stripped out, AND the crude was partially stabilized BEOFRE being piped to Abqaiq…BUT, like the Sham-Wow Guy, there’s more… #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 27) AFTER 2004, the Shaybah NGL Recovery Project was commenced (2010 onwards) where per Aramco’s website a “2.4 bcf NGL recovery plant” was built “providing large volumes of ethane…as well as other NGLs.” #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 28) To wit: “Shaybah NGL is designed to process 2.4 billion cubic feet per day (cfd) of low-sulphur sweet gas and extract 264,000 bpd of NGL which will be shipped to Juaymah Gas Plant for further fractionation,” #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 29) Aramco said in its Dimensions International magazine as reported by Reuters (reuters.com/article/saudi-…). #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 30) THIS article oilandgasnewsonline.com/Article/37756/… makes it clear that Shaybah has crude stabilization unit(s) #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 31) We believe that the oil @ Shaybah now is being largely stabilized through the removal of NGLs BEFORE Abqaiq, & given the low-sulfur nature of the field combined with literature indicating sulfur stripping to an extent at Shaybah #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 32) that the Shaybah crude is sweet enough to simply get blended at Abqaiq after other fields are stabilized and sweetened… #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 33) While this article is a little unclear venturesonsite.com/news/essar-pro…, it makes clear that stabil. units for Shaybah were being worked on during the NGL Recovery Proj-the article says “@ its Abqaiq plant @ Shaybah field” & others say “IN the Shaybah field” #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 34) For more, see bilateralchamber.org/shaybah-projec… as to improvements in Shaybah’s gas/NGL situation…and this emirates247.com/business/energ… #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 35) Now, as to blending, Per Saudi Arabia: Petroleum Industry Review by Pierre Shammas (2000), “Abqaiq’s crudes and those of Berri and Shaybah are mixed at new blending facilities built at Abqaiq to produce the Arabian Extra Light. #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 36) These facilities r linked by pipeline to Shaybah.” Later in the paper, Shaybah crude “is piped to Abqaiq for blending.” And another reference to Shaybah crude being blended at Abqaiq rather than stabilized/sweetened per se…meed.com/aramco-moves-o… #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 37) In sum, we believe that Shaybah is must less reliant on Abqaiq now, and that it is likely that Shaybah’s crude is simply blending downstream of the spheroids/towers at Abqaiq…we have not detected abnormal signals from Shaybah post-attack… #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 38) …if our work/data is correct, it means Shaybah is not truly constrained by Abqaiq, and it helps answer why Shaybah faded from the news post-attack and why the “affected” crude is ~5.7 mbpd not ~6.7 mbpd. #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 39) What about Ghawar/Abqaiq Fields? Our detections corroborate Aramco’s implied production (per disclosed data by Aramco’s press conference et al.) post-attack from these fields that are flowing into Abqaiq Processing Facility... #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 40) ...on Friday (earlier for clients), we reported to some media outlets, that our detected production from the “affected fields” was at 60% of the ~5.7 mbpd that was originally down…we have more recent data, but that we are holding back for a bit… #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 41 END...for more, DM me, or go to @genscape’s website for the landing page to High-Frequency Oil Production Monitor genscape.com/products/oil-n…
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