There are only 3 fundamental ways to change the Earth’s energy budget: 1) Modification of incoming solar radiation, 2) Modification of the fraction of incoming solar radiation reflected back to space, 3) Modification of the Earth’s outgoing longwave radiation #SJSU#GlobalWarming
A Radiative forcing is something that causes the Earth’s radiative energy budget to become temporarily unbalanced and thus it causes a change in global average temperature. #SJSU#METR12#GlobalWarming
A Radiative Feedback is something that changes in response to an initial radiative forcing, either amplifying the initial change or reducing the initial change. Relevant radiative feedbacks for Earth are the water vapor feedback, the ice-albedo feedback, and the cloud feedback.
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Is climate change driving massive increases in severe thunderstorm costs and causing “The Possible Collapse of the U.S. Home Insurance System” as @nytimes reports?
There is a large and growing gap between climate science and the reporting coming from 'climate desks'…🧵
It is true that both US billion-dollar disasters and global insured disaster losses are increasing, and a large fraction of the overall increase seems to be driven by increases in losses from severe thunderstorms.
But what, specifically, does climate science say about historical and expected changes in severe thunderstorms and their associated hazards of tornadoes and hail?
When considering the risk of natural disasters like floods, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has adopted a useful framework for breaking down the risk of impacts.
This is useful for considering the underlying causes of any changes in flood disasters because, on the many-decade timescales that climate change progresses, there will not only be changes in the hazard but also changes in exposure and vulnerability.
I have a piece out today in The Chronicle of Higher Education on how social and career incentives surrounding researchers cause a good portion of the full story on the climate problem to be left out of the high-impact literature. 🧵 chronicle.com/article/does-c…
I also recently gave a seminar for the Energy Policy and Climate Program at Johns Hopkins University (where I am a lecturer) that covers the same topic:
This piece stems from a frustration I feel about not being able to take the high-impact climate science literature at face value.
Even if temperatures return to the middle of the climate model projection envelope by the late 2020s, we still expect temperatures like those seen in 2023 to be commonplace in the 2030s...
Thus, any drastic change in weather at the regional level (like in the US) associated with this level of global warmth would be quite concerning when considering climate impacts over the coming decades.
On that front, The New York Times purported to connect the recent spike in global temperatures to a summer of unusually devastating weather in the US in a piece called Why Summers May Never Be the Same. The globe’s warmest months on record redefined summer for many Americans.
Last week, I described our paper on climate change and wildfires:
I am very proud of this research overall. But I want to talk about how molding research presentations for high-profile journals can reduce its usefulness & actually mislead the public.
I mentioned that this research looked at the effect of warming in isolation but that warming is just one of many important influences on wildfires with others being changes in human ignition patterns and changes in vegetation/fuels.
We have a paper out today in @Nature on the role that human-caused climate change is playing in changes in extreme wildfire behavior, at the daily timescale, in California.
Many previous studies have looked at the influence of climate change on wildfires in California, the US West, and around the world. However, most previous studies have focused on *conditions conducive* to wildfires rather than characteristics of wildfires themselves.
This is exemplified by the relevant statement in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, which is an assertion about weather conditions conducive to wildfires.