, 7 tweets, 9 min read Read on Twitter
A #Tehran insider says the strategy is to revive #Iran nuclear program until the West returns to #JCPOA or creates a new deal. Until that happens, the Islamic Republic is simultaneously using a few other ingredients to its strategy. /1
Threat of retaliation against immediate neighbors | #Gulf states like #KSA #UAE #Kuwait #Bahrain have received ample warnings they will be hit through missiles or sabotage if #Iran is attacked directly or if sanctions are prolonged.
#Iran is appeasing #Turkey through concessions in #Syria #Iraq & on #Kurds. #Pakistan has received signals #Balochistan/#Karachi are targets if #Islamabad sides with #USA or with #Gulf states. (Apr attack, 14 soldiers hit, deep attack; sea-borne hit on #Gwadar)
#Iran has successfully turned #Yemen into a negotiating card in the larger negotiations with the West. If West/#USA respond positively to #Iranian overtures, the #IRGC could allow the #Houthis militia to open peace talks with Yemeni govt to end the war.
#Iran will continue to encourage #Houthis attacks on #SaudiArabia short of an all-out war, a pressure tactic on Saudis until the West delivers on #Tehran's various demands.
#Iran has generally avoided increasing tensions with #Israel as a pressure tactic to convince the West to lift sanctions. This despite dozens & likely hundreds of #Israeli attacks on Iranian jihadi militias in #Syria. Iran's focus is on the #Gulf. Israel is a last option. @AQpk
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