okay, Austria has elections today and I thought I'd give my international followers a bit of a heads up

first off the parties:

SPÖ: center-left
ÖVP: opportunist, currently center-right, but could change quickly
NEOS: lolbertarians basically
Greens: far-left
FPÖ: true right
after a scandal in may, new elections were called

the FPÖ lost due to the scandal, but regained a bit, the SPÖ also lost some points, the ÖVP initially made gains, but they slowly dripped away, the NEOS only had a short burst, and the Greens have made good gains
this is the latest opinion poll from today

the last week has been the media bashing the FPÖ constantly, coming up with ever new ways to defame them, but it seems this had little to no impact

opinion polls are usually fairly accurate here
the ÖVP is going to win, that is out of the question, the important question is: who will be in a coalition with them?

more than 50% of votes are needed for a functioning government, so they need a partner

the ÖVP is very opportunist, its partner will determine its direction
currently only two real possibilities exist

1) ÖVP + FPÖ, a right-wing anti-migration coalition

we had this one before new elections got called and it was quite popular

however, lately the ÖVP wants the FPÖ to go further to the left, this might be an issue for a coalition
2) ÖVP, Greens, NEOS

not tried before and at the moment also a coalition seen fairly positively

issues are: it's a three-way coalition, which means twice the work, and there are large political differences

if this coalition wins, neoliberalism will rule, borders will be opened
so, what will be important today?

not much, the true important decisions come after the vote when the ÖVP chooses its partner

it is pretty certain that both coalition variants will have a majority and will therefore be possible, so it will likely be a decision between these two
something that is going to be important and that you can watch out for today:

1) the greens have made significant gains recently, if they gain so much that they could form a coalition with the ÖVP on their own (i.e. ÖVP + Greens = 50%+), then this will likely happen, bad news
the second thing to watch out for:

> the ÖVP has been losing quite steadily now, should they fall any further it is unlikely but possible that an ÖVP+FPÖ coalition becomes impossible, because it is below 50%

this would be bad, but not too bad
it would not be too bad, because then all other possibilities are likely also off the table, which means only a "grand coalition" of ÖVP+SPÖ might be possible

this coalition is the hated status-quo, it is political suicide for both parties
right, that's it, I will update when I get some results today
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