, 10 tweets, 3 min read
JOB MYTH of #ModiSarkar2

INDIA LOST 45 MILLION JOBS between 2012 & 2018 !!! India’s first annual labour survey (PLFS 2018) provides an update on India’s employment data. It's available here.

The Thread explains how I arrived at 45 Mn Job Losses.
Population in 2012: 1233 Million (Mn)
Labor Participation % 2012: 55.9%

So number of ppl either looking or have a job: 1233 * 55.9% = 689mn

Employement Rate 2012: 54.7%
People employed: 1233 * 54.7% =674.5mn
Unemployment Rate: 2%, 14.8mn
Population in 2018: 1336 Million (Mn)
Labor Participation % 2018: 49.8%

So number of ppl either looking or have a job: 1336 * 49.8% = 665mn

Employement Rate 2018: 46.8%
People employed: 1336 * 46.8% =625mn
Unemployment Rate/People: 6%, 40.8mn
Considering both years, 2012 and 2018 data, it's obvious that India LOST 49 million Jobs between 2012 and 2018 and data points indicate that much of this has happened due to #Demonetization & #GST disruptions - both which are badly Implemented in haste.

Labour Force Survey '18 indicates that Unemployment increased from 2% in '12 to 6% in '18.

But that 6% is a game of #Smoke & #MIRRORS. A reduction in Labor Participation (LPR) from 56% in to 49.8% helped. A steady LPR implies a 13% UNEMPLOYMENT!!
Footnote: LPR rates in most Emerging Markets are between 60% and 68% ....so India being at 49.8% is an anomaly and even 56% LPR in 2018 is a low number.
Where did we lose Jobs ?

AGRI accounted for almost 45mn job losses

while the NON-AGRI side contributed to a net loss of 2mn Job losses.
Till the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) of 2017-18 which was published by the govt in July 2019 official employment data did not capture earnings of the self-employed.

The PLFS for the first time has captured such earnings and the picture isn’t pretty.
Most of India’s self-employed are not job creators, contrary to claims made by several ministers over the past few years, and have poor earnings.

As much as 70% of the self-employed were own account workers, an official categorization of self-employed workers who run
their own establishment or enterprise (with or without partners) without hiring any worker, while 26% were unpaid helpers who assist household members in running their enterprise, but do not receive any regular wage or salary. Only 4% of the self-employed were employers
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