, 61 tweets, 23 min read
#mcmcharts

1/

50+ important charts coming today and imo the picture is clearing up for the short-term

lets start with $AAPL
2/

monetary aggregates and unemployment - still have not turned #SPX #M1 #M2
3/

$NYSE internals are constructive and confirmed last equities highs which suggests that new highs are likely and that those have a possibility to be unconfirmed
4/

This measure of unemployment is being used as a basis for optimism and its making new highs which - needs to pullback and start to chop around to support a change in markets $SPX
5/

This trendline imo needs another test from below which would also likely test a divergent downtrend line on $RSI for $SPX
6/

on the $INDU would look close to like this
7/

$INDU also has this channel that looks like it is being quite influential
8/

this chart of $WOOD does not make it look like Lumber is about ready to start a new bear market but more like it may be seeking a bounce in one $SPX
9/

$SOX in $YEN is looking very constructive - if I was not so concerned about the absolute disaster in semiconductor world - the word BULLISH would most likely apply to this chart
10/

$SPX broke over 2955 which has been a gap area off consequence - and its gapped under it, back over it, under it, back under it and now back over it...there are only so many times this is generally allowed to happen without a resolution for a strong move
11/

On a darker note the #bitcoin model correctly called the down and the recent bounce and now is suggesting more consolidation before lower - however, markets appear they may have other plans...but something to keep in mind nonetheless $SPX
12/

on that note here is the $bdi model which also nailed the top and is suggesting sharp downside could be dead ahead - but this is forecasting 1.5 weeks of downside and the markets would not be obligated to make such a sharp move esp with the Fed doing QE again $SPX
13/

market participants seem likely to be thinking $SPX is a bargain relative to recent years as the #PE has come down but to me this is only relative... on a real basis $SPX is gargantuanly overvalued imo
14/

lets look more at internals UP/Down volume vs Advance/Decline is doing things it only usually does near or out of major lows $SPX
15/

$trin is doing thing is has only done near or around major lows & recently the markets have gotten more fearful than in many years and prices have not even been able to make a lower low on a relative basis...this is a non-confirmation and not in favor of downside near-term
16/

here is a view of $ARMS index which is also of recent making extreme negative reading of panic the likes of which have not been seen since 2015 & 2011 $SPX
17/

$VVIX vs $VIX suggests $SPX stands at a cross roads... a momentum type move should be expected and IF it were to be to the upside this suggests there would be a lot of fodder for a strong squeeze
18/

and interesting look back at decades of $trin - esp before central banks were asset buyers there was obviously some price discovery required for markets $SPX
19/

ALL the McClellan’s are turning up - probably nothing $SPX $NYSE $NDX
20/

of recent there have been a few partial #hindennburgomen’s but the last full hindenburgs were in August #NYSE #SPX
21/

last 2 #buybacks signals were exceptional (exogenous) in both cases markets have bounced strongly despite the fact that there is obviously deleveraging and liquidation going on -the disention was so strong as to drive markets to test highs and perhaps make new highs now $SPX
22/

on the negative site #bullishpercent has not triggered a new buy signal though its turning up and could always do so $SPX
23/

all the forgoing notwithstanding...the recent panic in $SPX has triggered in aggregate the strongest put buying since December
24/

if $SPX monthly catches a bid here...then this pattern starts to look rather bullish though note the PMO indicator is still sitting with the fast line BELOW the SLOW which is a sign of a struggle
25/

$TRAN has picked up pretty well but $FDX is a question mark... clearly some doubt going on over in Fedex territory
26/

Bull/Bear Ratio is incredibly negative - this has not generally turned out well for sellers or wave 3 or C wave theories $SPX
27/

another look at $AAII Bulls and Bears $SPX
28/

and yet another look at $AAII bulls vs bears $SPX
29/

$SPX up/down volume is trending positively and has held the zero line
30/

People are still not buying out of the money options/protection $SPX
31/

$yields looking like a double bottom as discussed extensively last month $UST
32/

about that yield curve inversion $SPX $UST
33/

an interesting look at #fedrate vs markets and $UST
34/

if Global $INDU catches a bid here this chart could look rather constructive and may support the euphoric blow off I have been mentioning
35/

$NYSE highs vs lows are trading at the highest since the 2018 low but below the all time high which incidentally was NOT confirmed by NYSE price but was confirmed by $INDU and $SPX prices
36/

here is the same $NYSE ratio but with $SPX for comparison
37/

$SPX vs $UST you tell me - looks a lot like the 2006/2007 period
38/

of broadening patterns we speak...imo this broadening top is likely of being retested or overthrown. If slightly overthrown then it would likely be the euphoric phase and end of this unprecedented bubble, mania and financially engineered/artificial expansion $SPX $SPXEW
39/

$SPXEW has been lagging $SPX for years - this is a sign of concentration in markets and distribution under the covers
40/

$UST has a way of foretelling #Volatility but this appears to still be a minor pause before the main dinner $VIX
41/

$wlsh has been a discussion for sometime

when this clear and HUGE distribution took place I suggested it would setup a further distribution to a last high before a larger selloff/bearmarket. IMO after the next high equities will get a bear market and it will not be pretty
42/

here is another look at $WLSH vs $SPX
43/

and another $WLSH vs $SPX with a ratio
44/

for all the rotation into VALUE that we heard about - there was NOT MUCH ROTATION $XVG vs $SPX
45/

a closer look at $NYSE Highs vs Lows $SPX
46/

lets talk about credit - and leveraged loans specifically...here are two views of $FLOT - this making new all time highs now is NOT a sign that markets are reading to go risk off...liquidity and risk appetite has not apparently died yet
47/

High Yield vs $TNY and $TYX 10 and 30 year treasuries is well how to put it - NOT BEARISH
48/

its an important moment for High Yield as if it were to get a failed high here then that could start to turn longer-term not bearish posture into something ominous #LQD $HYG $UST
49/

$LQD vs $SPX unbelievable chart and its remains constructive
50/

#highyield vs $SPX
51/

the bigger high yield bond picture vs $SPX
52/

#FLD targets for $SPX are also around 3080
53/

Three Drives $SPX
54/

Three Drives Three Drives $SPX
55/

Flows into/out of equity mutual funds plus the cash balances changes vs $SPX (gray line)

What this says is that mutual fund business is contracting but risk while having slowed down has not yet begun to do so
56/

here is a more detailed (weekly) view of the Mutual Fund stock market fund flows $SPX
57/

#MoneyMarkets have been attracting a lot of cash recently which is represented inverted vs $SPX on this chart
58/

to me this whole setup since 2000 has been all zigzags and zigzags within zigzags - if this is at all within the realm of possibility then we are needing to complete wave B of an expanded flat which will then lead into a deep zigzag lower - or possibly worse $SPX
59/

wrapping up here is the #ticktools #mcmPanicEuphoriaIndex Array which shows also that markets recently made a major low & sellers are likely to have a tough time finding more sellers to drop this market appreciably until we get relief of very negative positioning $SPX
60/

to round it off at a miniscule 60 post thread - will leave you with a picture of #deininger_wheier just outside #munich where I had lunch on Friday

highly recommended and amazing water - incredibly clean and in summer often many swimmers (and alps are not far away)
61/

Wanted to add this close up view of the #volatility projection

its still poss for $VIX to make a higher high I had been looking for BUT its has to happen now & imo given state of other charts & esp very negative positioning of many participants toward risk its not likely
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with mcm-ct.com

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!