, 61 tweets, 23 min read


50+ important charts coming today and imo the picture is clearing up for the short-term

lets start with $AAPL

monetary aggregates and unemployment - still have not turned #SPX #M1 #M2

$NYSE internals are constructive and confirmed last equities highs which suggests that new highs are likely and that those have a possibility to be unconfirmed

This measure of unemployment is being used as a basis for optimism and its making new highs which - needs to pullback and start to chop around to support a change in markets $SPX

This trendline imo needs another test from below which would also likely test a divergent downtrend line on $RSI for $SPX

on the $INDU would look close to like this

$INDU also has this channel that looks like it is being quite influential

this chart of $WOOD does not make it look like Lumber is about ready to start a new bear market but more like it may be seeking a bounce in one $SPX

$SOX in $YEN is looking very constructive - if I was not so concerned about the absolute disaster in semiconductor world - the word BULLISH would most likely apply to this chart

$SPX broke over 2955 which has been a gap area off consequence - and its gapped under it, back over it, under it, back under it and now back over it...there are only so many times this is generally allowed to happen without a resolution for a strong move

On a darker note the #bitcoin model correctly called the down and the recent bounce and now is suggesting more consolidation before lower - however, markets appear they may have other plans...but something to keep in mind nonetheless $SPX

on that note here is the $bdi model which also nailed the top and is suggesting sharp downside could be dead ahead - but this is forecasting 1.5 weeks of downside and the markets would not be obligated to make such a sharp move esp with the Fed doing QE again $SPX

market participants seem likely to be thinking $SPX is a bargain relative to recent years as the #PE has come down but to me this is only relative... on a real basis $SPX is gargantuanly overvalued imo

lets look more at internals UP/Down volume vs Advance/Decline is doing things it only usually does near or out of major lows $SPX

$trin is doing thing is has only done near or around major lows & recently the markets have gotten more fearful than in many years and prices have not even been able to make a lower low on a relative basis...this is a non-confirmation and not in favor of downside near-term

here is a view of $ARMS index which is also of recent making extreme negative reading of panic the likes of which have not been seen since 2015 & 2011 $SPX

$VVIX vs $VIX suggests $SPX stands at a cross roads... a momentum type move should be expected and IF it were to be to the upside this suggests there would be a lot of fodder for a strong squeeze

and interesting look back at decades of $trin - esp before central banks were asset buyers there was obviously some price discovery required for markets $SPX

ALL the McClellan’s are turning up - probably nothing $SPX $NYSE $NDX

of recent there have been a few partial #hindennburgomen’s but the last full hindenburgs were in August #NYSE #SPX

last 2 #buybacks signals were exceptional (exogenous) in both cases markets have bounced strongly despite the fact that there is obviously deleveraging and liquidation going on -the disention was so strong as to drive markets to test highs and perhaps make new highs now $SPX

on the negative site #bullishpercent has not triggered a new buy signal though its turning up and could always do so $SPX

all the forgoing notwithstanding...the recent panic in $SPX has triggered in aggregate the strongest put buying since December

if $SPX monthly catches a bid here...then this pattern starts to look rather bullish though note the PMO indicator is still sitting with the fast line BELOW the SLOW which is a sign of a struggle

$TRAN has picked up pretty well but $FDX is a question mark... clearly some doubt going on over in Fedex territory

Bull/Bear Ratio is incredibly negative - this has not generally turned out well for sellers or wave 3 or C wave theories $SPX

another look at $AAII Bulls and Bears $SPX

and yet another look at $AAII bulls vs bears $SPX

$SPX up/down volume is trending positively and has held the zero line

People are still not buying out of the money options/protection $SPX

$yields looking like a double bottom as discussed extensively last month $UST

about that yield curve inversion $SPX $UST

an interesting look at #fedrate vs markets and $UST

if Global $INDU catches a bid here this chart could look rather constructive and may support the euphoric blow off I have been mentioning

$NYSE highs vs lows are trading at the highest since the 2018 low but below the all time high which incidentally was NOT confirmed by NYSE price but was confirmed by $INDU and $SPX prices

here is the same $NYSE ratio but with $SPX for comparison

$SPX vs $UST you tell me - looks a lot like the 2006/2007 period

of broadening patterns we speak...imo this broadening top is likely of being retested or overthrown. If slightly overthrown then it would likely be the euphoric phase and end of this unprecedented bubble, mania and financially engineered/artificial expansion $SPX $SPXEW

$SPXEW has been lagging $SPX for years - this is a sign of concentration in markets and distribution under the covers

$UST has a way of foretelling #Volatility but this appears to still be a minor pause before the main dinner $VIX

$wlsh has been a discussion for sometime

when this clear and HUGE distribution took place I suggested it would setup a further distribution to a last high before a larger selloff/bearmarket. IMO after the next high equities will get a bear market and it will not be pretty

here is another look at $WLSH vs $SPX

and another $WLSH vs $SPX with a ratio

for all the rotation into VALUE that we heard about - there was NOT MUCH ROTATION $XVG vs $SPX

a closer look at $NYSE Highs vs Lows $SPX

lets talk about credit - and leveraged loans specifically...here are two views of $FLOT - this making new all time highs now is NOT a sign that markets are reading to go risk off...liquidity and risk appetite has not apparently died yet

High Yield vs $TNY and $TYX 10 and 30 year treasuries is well how to put it - NOT BEARISH

its an important moment for High Yield as if it were to get a failed high here then that could start to turn longer-term not bearish posture into something ominous #LQD $HYG $UST

$LQD vs $SPX unbelievable chart and its remains constructive

#highyield vs $SPX

the bigger high yield bond picture vs $SPX

#FLD targets for $SPX are also around 3080

Three Drives $SPX

Three Drives Three Drives $SPX

Flows into/out of equity mutual funds plus the cash balances changes vs $SPX (gray line)

What this says is that mutual fund business is contracting but risk while having slowed down has not yet begun to do so

here is a more detailed (weekly) view of the Mutual Fund stock market fund flows $SPX

#MoneyMarkets have been attracting a lot of cash recently which is represented inverted vs $SPX on this chart

to me this whole setup since 2000 has been all zigzags and zigzags within zigzags - if this is at all within the realm of possibility then we are needing to complete wave B of an expanded flat which will then lead into a deep zigzag lower - or possibly worse $SPX

wrapping up here is the #ticktools #mcmPanicEuphoriaIndex Array which shows also that markets recently made a major low & sellers are likely to have a tough time finding more sellers to drop this market appreciably until we get relief of very negative positioning $SPX

to round it off at a miniscule 60 post thread - will leave you with a picture of #deininger_wheier just outside #munich where I had lunch on Friday

highly recommended and amazing water - incredibly clean and in summer often many swimmers (and alps are not far away)

Wanted to add this close up view of the #volatility projection

its still poss for $VIX to make a higher high I had been looking for BUT its has to happen now & imo given state of other charts & esp very negative positioning of many participants toward risk its not likely
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