, 21 tweets, 15 min read

@realDonaldTrump is leaving #Syria

Would the opposition have decided to take up arms against the State early on had they been absolutely certain that U.S. would not come to their aid?

What if Obama was much clearer in his Aug 2011 official communique re U.S policy?
2-The majority of Middle Eastern citizens seem to believe that whatever Washington wishes to happen in the region can and will soon become reality. All that is needed is for the White House to wave the magic wand and....Voilà
3-That few/many/majority of #Syria ‘s citizens were fed up with their leadership is beyond dispute. Also beyond dispute is that State used force to quell demonstrators (loyalists will argue it was all foreign conspiracy etc)

But is this anything to do with the U.S?
4-Following #Iraq debacle, U.S. citizens elected a President that run on a non-interventionist platform promising to end Mideast war and bring the troops home. In June 2009 and barely 6 months before start of Arab Spring @BarackObama wanted "New Beginning" obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/issues/foreign…
@BarackObama 5-The lofty goals in @BarackObama Cairo speech were soon to be tested as the Arab Spring unfolded. #Tunisia was the easy part as the country's leader decided to flee after only a month of protests. Every other Arab citizen quickly thought, why couldn't this happen in my country?
@BarackObama 6-As #Tunisia 's Arab Spring reached #Libya , Gaddafi made it clear very early on that he would not flee like Ben Ali. Non-interventionist Obama would soon find himself caving to pressure from EU allies and the domestic political establishment theguardian.com/us-news/2016/a…
@BarackObama 7-Barely two days before Daraa uprising started in #Syria , and on 19 March 2011, a multi-state NATO-led coalition began their military intervention in #Libya . The earlier events in Tunisia already stoked the flames within many of Syria's citizens. Libya made them more euphoric
@BarackObama 8-Most Arab capitals were feeling the shockwaves from N. Africa, including Damascus. Assad had reportedly asked his Intel agencies to determine whether #Syria could be next. They thought that this was unlikely. Assad seemed to agree back in Jan 2011 wsj.com/articles/SB100…
@BarackObama 9-Barely two months after his above interview, Assad would soon face #Syria 's version of the so-called Arab Spring, one that would make those preceding it look like a walk in the park

But, how would @BarackObama 's White House respond?
@BarackObama 10-@AJENews & intense pressure from allies in Gulf capital were in full swing v early on. @BarackObama soon found himself under increasing pressure to "act". As war on Gaddafi continued, Obama was reportedly strongly opposed to getting militarily involved also in #Syria
@BarackObama @AJENews 11-On August 2011, @BarackObama would release a communique that would immediately be interpreted by many observers & especially those in #Syria opposition as "commitment" by the U.S. to their cause. Few bothered to read the finer details of the statement obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2011/08/1…
@BarackObama @AJENews 12-Ever since that day in August 2011, #Syria observers & opposition decided to read the above statement as "Assad must go". First, they totally ignored the wording of "The future of Syria must be determined by its people"
@BarackObama @AJENews 13-#Syria observers also ignored fact that wording of "time has come for President Assad to step aside" is not the same as Assad must go. The legally trained WH thought they were being careful, clever & precise with every word in the communique. NOT so the rest of the world
14- For ME & #Syria /n citizens who believe that whatever Washington wishes to happen in the region can and will soon become reality, the simplicity of believing in “Assad must go” came to mean that Washington already waved its magic wand and Assad therefore is soon a goner
15-Both @BarackObama then & @realDonaldTrump now have faced enormous pressure to get sucked into #Syria ‘s war. The pressure came from multiple corners who used multiple rationales for why the U.S. MUST intervene.

The principal of Responsibility to protect (R2P) dominated
16-Both @BarackObama & now @realDonaldTrump are non-interventionists in nature and both were elected on this platform

Yet, observers, reporters, foreign allies, cabinet secretaries, National Securiry advisors and of course members of #Syria ‘s opposition refused to accept it
17-Looking back, one wonders what would have happened if @BarackObama was way bolder and more direct in expressing his strong desire not to get involved in #Syria . What if he never put out the above communique? What if he was as clear as @realDonaldTrump was today
18-What if @realDonaldTrump abrupt decision to pull out of #Syria was matched by an equally abrupt statement from @BarackObama in 2011 stating this:

“Syria is in the middle of a brutal power struggle. The U.S. will not take part in deciding the winner of this conflict”
Had White House of 2011 said

#Syria is in the middle of a brutal power struggle. The U.S. will not take part in deciding the winner of this conflict”

One wonders if Opp would have been as eager to carry up arms

One wonders if so many would have died
Few/many/majority of #Syria ‘s citizens may hate Assad and they may well have legitimate reasons for wanting him gone

This however is not a priority for U.S. voters. If it was, they would have voted to bring back Cheney/Rumsfeld or decided to elect Bolton/Graham
21-In Nov 2020, US voters will elect the next President

One wonders if reporters, think tankers, advisors, allies or future insurgents & revolutionaries will listen to what the next occupant of the White House says or whether they will instead get into their echo chamber again
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