, 31 tweets, 12 min read

Cognitive dissonance has people possessed with looking for 5 wave impulses...when all I see are zigzags and we need to finish this last zag to the upside $SPX

$SPX Earnings

How does a falling P/E for $SPX apply and how whacky can illusions hold up as If real

#SPX #BullishPercent is in an uptrend and likely has significantly further to go

MACD/PPO fast line is at 7.886 vs slow at 7.887 & no matter how to try to look at these monthly candles...they look short-term bullish, needs an upside resolution. For $SPX if PPO was planning on a bearish kiss its taking too long, so negative setup not high prob

$GDOW Monthly candle look bullish and momentum continues tracking higher..

#libor perverted
#rates inverted
#pricediscovery subverted

Tortured bid for risk continues $SPX

$SPY is one ETF & short interest there has been dropping but its a very incomplete representation of how people are positioned or rather NOT positioned

See the biggest buying strike against #equity risk taking in decades atleast, sets up ideal situation for BUYER DESPERATION

Here is a detailed look at what the equity mutual fund space can tell us...and its confirming the recent highs with no risk aversion showing up yet as at prior tops (Red) or turns (Yellow) $SPX

$SKEW has regularly been counter intuitive and in 2018 there was an almost complete buyers strike for out of the money protection which exacerbated the decline as participants were hit by the full brunt of it. Purchases have been increasing on every rally lately $SPX
One of the reasons imo the next top will be an esp important one is the general low level of interest in Out of the money protection since Dec 2018 which is setting up ideal conditions for a euphoric blow off where the consensus is risk is decreasing when in FACT ITS INCREASING
The other reason the next major turn imo (which could take longer to be put in than many are expecting - depends on confirmations imo) is the record low level of cash held at investment firms

while they’ve not shown behavior associated with an immediate turn this is complacency

not a pretty picture for the risk off scenarios...

imo this squeeze is likely not only to be a squeeze but a breakout & throwover...

sellers are in trouble imo $VIX $SOX $VXO

$RUT - hmmm

Stumbled on this in my international indexes review and have to say the Nifty is in a pattern (similar to other markets but without the dubiousness - THIS IS ABSOLUTELY NOT A TOPPING PATTERN and if so then this has implication for $SPX $CNX

cc: @Callum_Thomas

Food for thought - hmmm $NYSE

More international indexes that do not look like they are topping

Another look at those Equity Put/Calls

$BKX Banks leading $SPX is a noteable leading indicator as to market’s predilections imo

Seems like the $COMPQ nasdaq may want to just for posterity’s sake put in an all time high value action vs $GDP - eclipsing 1999/2000 - its not far away

Credit and Equity $BKLN vs $HYG vs $SPX

imo these are not things you see at major turns/tops but rather consolidations or short pauses $SPX $MID

this is why imo the next ramp in market is likely to be a euphoric blowoff and NOT something larger in terms of extension of the bull market... IMO BULL MARKET EXTENSIONS NEED PARTICIPTION OF TECH and that has absolutely not been happening $COMP $SPX
this is why this chart published in @Callum_Thomas top down charts this week imo is not likely - BUT if people start to feel they are missing out (as I expect) $SPX then index may throw over the 3080 ideal target

This is the updated chart of the Three Drives pattern on the daily chart that I have been posting $spx and imo this is likely close to the termination point of any rally esp given the state of the $COMPQ

not only is there a daily three drives but there is a weekly one too - here is the updated chart $SPX

$SPX longer-term scenario and unemployment rate

#yen is playing out according to the scenario posted on these pages and imo has lower to go...a test of this trendline will likely lead to a good reaction from YEN which has the option of realigning risk markets if it wishes

IMO this is a very important chart for BEARS to be watching...its already done a lot of damage to price discovery & injured bears a lot...DO NOT SEE $SPX or risk assets reversing...until this starts to reverse as CENTRAL BANKERS ATTEMPT TO DESTROY THE WORLD mkt likely higher
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