, 48 tweets, 18 min read
With a wonderful #ScheerlessTuesday, Canada has shown the world we will not fall to the .@CPC_HQ's shameful and divisive rhetoric. Well done Canada.

I have put together an analysis of the ridings which were split but would've gone progressive.

#cdnpoli🇨🇦 #elxn43
We begin in the riding of West Nova, NS, where the CPC is gifted a seat by the NDP and the GRN. This seat was a tossup according to @338Canada.

This seat should've been LPC.
Fundy Royal, NB looks like a landslide but CPC+PPC still wouldn't have been able to keep up with the LPC/GRN/NDP. This seat was a statistical tie on 338CA.

the Anti-choice CPC receives another gift from the progressives.

Anti-choicers: 22,966.
Progressives: 23,735.
In the Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup riding of QC, the CPC is given another seat by the BQ/LPC/GRN/NDP split. This seat should've been BQ.

This seat was leaning BQ on 338 with a five percent lead but a 7.6% margin of error.
Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier in QC, the anti-choice CPC and PPC total 29,449 to the progressives' 34,195.

This seat should've gone to the BQ.

The polls at 338 showed this seat as likely CPC with a 99% probability.
Richmond-Arthabaska, QC.

Anti-choice totals 27,256.
Progressive total: 31,239.

Another seat that should gone to the BQ.
Now we have made our way into my province of ON, who voted in drug-trafficker Ford nation, who was muzzled by his own party. Here we see the true vote-split.

Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill's CPC win was razor thin. The NDP/GRN voters gave the CPC that seat instead of the LPC.
Barrie-Innisfil in ON, another split.

The anti choice CPC and PPC total 24,573 to the progressive total of 29,027. This should've been another LPC seat.

338CA predicted this split, correctly labelling this seat as "likely CPC" with a 85% of winning.
Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, ON.

the CPC+PPC total 21,817 whereas the progressive split 31,437 votes. This riding is overwhelmingly progressive. However, their MP will be a CPC member, a party that denies the scientific consensus on climate change.

This seat should be LPC.
Brantford-Brant, ON is another razor thin race where the GRN/NDP split gives the CPC an early Christmas present and sends their MP to Ottawa.
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, ON is also a progressive riding, although the margin is razor thin. They unfortunately split 28,920 to the xenophobes' 28,286.

338CA had this riding listed as "likely CPC," again correcting predicting the split 5% split.

This seat should be LPC.
Carleton, ON is a devastating result. Riding of MP Poilievre, who defended Harper's horrendous "elections act" bill after the CPC got caught engaging in illegal robocalls, won in a close race due to an NDP/GRN split.

A CPC gift. Pierre should not be in Ottawa, Rodgers should be.
Chatham-Kent-Leamington, ON also splits the vote and sends another CPC MP to Ottawa. The anti-choice CPC and xenophobic PPC total for 26,341, compared to the progressive total of 27,081. Small win, but a gift nonetheless.

Another LPC seat lost.
Dufferin-Caledon, ON is another tough one to swallow, where the LPC lose a seat by 6,399, but 15,074 NDP/GRN voters will not go unheard because their vote permitted another CPC anti-choicer to go to Ottawa.

This seat should've been LPC.
Durham, ON gets robbed. Overwhelmingly progressive for a total vote count of 40,324 (55.68% of the vote), but the NDP/GRN split ensures another CPC seat.

This seat should be LPC.

338CA data was spot on, "leaning CPC" with 41% and predicting the 55% split.
Essex, ON splits LPC/GRN votes and gifts the CPC another crucial ON seat.

This seat should be NDP, with progressives totalling 56.63% of the vote. But they will be represented by an MP whose party believes in corporate welfare and denies climate science.
Flamborough-Glanbrook in ON has the CPC barely winning with only 38.68% of the vote, but all seats are equal...

Progressives total 37,610 and 59.96% of the vote, and will go underrepresented again despite being a sweeping progressive riding.
Hastings-Lennox and Addington, ON. CPC wins a "toss-up" as according to 338CA due to the NDP/GRN split.

The split ensures a resounding 55.66% of voters will go unrepresented.

This seat should be LPC.
Kenora, ON is by far one of the most disappointing ridings, splitting the progressive vote and electing another CPC MP despite the race being a toss-up between the NDP and LPC.

This should be either an LPC or NDP seat. If we count the votes, it should be LPC.

Another gift.
Gorgeous Niagara Falls, ON, despite its 55.27% vote for progressive policies, gifted the CPC another seat with its NDP/GRN split.

This seat would've been LPC.
Nearby, Niagara West, ON is hit with the same curse. A clear vote for progressive policies (51%) and climate science, the non-platform CPC are gifted another seat by the NDP/GRN split.
Northumberland-Peterborough South, ON. The CPC suffered a huge defeat here. Oh wait they didn't, even though the number are clear. Because of the NDP/GRN split, another CPC member goes to Ottawa.

58.01% of voters in this riding were progressive...

Another LPC seat stolen.
A heartbreaking split in Oshawa, ON sends a CPC MP to Ottawa due to an LPC/GRN split.

338CA correctly predicted this split, predicting the 54.7% progressive split in its polls, versus the actual 53.76% result.

This seat should be NDP by a huge margin.
Parry Sound-Muskoka, ON, splits again, this time with GRN in third, divvying up with the NDP and gifting the CPC another seat.

This should be an LPC seat.
Perth-Wellington, ON, is also split between the NDP/GRN parties. The anti-choice CPC and PPC combine for 26,398 total votes, versus the total for progressives: 27,790.

A thin margin, the split predicted by 338CA; "leaning CPC".

This seat should've been LPC
Simcoe-Grey in ON is also split between the GRN/NDP.

Progressive policy (54.05%) robbed of another seat, another CPC gift.
Nearby, Simcoe-North also gifts the CPC an MP seat with its NDP/GRN split. 54.1% of people voted for progressive policy in this riding, votes that will be ignored and obstructed and halted by the CPC.
Razor thin again in Wellington-Halton Hills, ON. The anti-choice parties total for 34,302 (49.88) versus the 34,458 (50.11%) victory for progressives. But alas, it will be fossil-fuel, oil-loving CPC who will send their MP to Ottawa.

This seat should be LPC.
The final split vote in ON: York-Simcoe ensures another CPC victory despite the voters (49.43%) making their preference for progressive policy known, versus 48.15%.

They did not crack the 50% mark due to the LTN party.
Now in Saskatchewan, "separatist and blue country", we see Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, SK, split between the LPC and GRN to ensure the "CPC sweep."

This seat should be NDP, with progressive destroying the CPC with 55.56% fo the vote.
With only one split seat in SK, we move onto AB, where we are given the impression that no one but cons are welcome. Nonsensical talks of separation aside, we immediately find Edmonton Centre, AB split.

The NDP/GRN split gifts the CPC this seat.

Progressive account for 53%.
Another single split seat in SK. Onto beautiful British Columbia, the Cloverdale-Langley City, BC riding is split to ensure another CPC seat despite 60.59% of voters wanting progressive policy. Very disappointing gift to the CPC here.
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, BC, is also split. Though by a small margin, 38,063 of progressive voters made their voices heard, and yet the regressive anti-science, anti-choice CPC party sends their MP to Ottawa with 33,180 voters.

Another LPC seat stolen.
Kelowna-Lake Country, BC is also split. BC was hit with massive CPC disinformation campaigns. They must be investigated.

Even then, we can see they would not have won had the system not been rigged in their favour.

Here: 52.17% of voters want progressive policies.
Kootenay-Columbia, BC gifts the CPC another undeserved seat due to the LPC/GRN split.

Approximately 52% of voters want progressive policies in this riding and will now be ignored.

338CA predicted this split; a toss-up between the NDP/CPC.

This should be an NDP seat.
Another razor-thin race, this time in Langley-Aldergrove, BC. 30,226 voted for the anti-choicers and racists, versus 30,822 who wanted progressive policies. I'm not good at math, but 822 is greater than 226.

This seat should be LPC.
Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon, BC.

Another clear split. The NDP/GRN cause the LPC to lose a seat, opting to "vote with their hearts" and sending to Ottawa, an MP whose party leader lied about his credentials.
Welcome to the riding of Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge, BC, where despite 61.48% of voters telling the government they want progressive policy; they will now be forced to send a member of the CPC to Ottawa.

This should be another LPC seat.
Christmas comes early for the CPC in Port Moody-Coquitlam, BC, where the LPC/GRN split.

This is the toughest riding to swallow, as 67.02% (the highest I’ve seen) of voters cast a ballot for progressive policies but got the climate-change denying CPC.

This should be an NDP seat.
South Surrey-White Rock, BC are also robbed of their representation, as a mere 43% vote (versus 56.43%) sends a CPC MP to Ottawa rather than an LPC.

338CA predicted this split down to the percentage within MOE: 53.5 (although they had the GRN as the third ranked party).
Finally, we come to Steveston-Richmond East, BC, where another CPC MP will be going to Ottawa due to an NDP/GRN split.

56.99% of people voted for progressive policies in this riding, and will now have to deal with a party who denies climate science.

This should be an LPC seat.
We can see from the data list that nearly all the CPC wins in ON were due to vote splits between the LPC/NDP/GRN, and about half of wins in BC (9 split versus 17 total wins), were due to vote-splits.

#cdnpoli #elxn43 #CanadianElection #Canada🇨🇦
@338Canada was within the margin of error in nearly every race, often predicting the split to a percentage point.

The majority of "toss-ups" which went CPC were due to clear vote splitting.

Other polls, including EKSOS, IPSOS, and Nanos were also within MOE.
The Fraser Insitute and the Sun were wrong. They are part of the right-wing CPC media apparatus.

The Fraser Institute is a right-wing think-tank.

Postmedia, owned by an American hedge fund, ran the exact same op-ed in every one of their papers and ignored Scheer's many lies.
Put pressure on your MPs for electoral reform. The LPC, NDP, and BQ lost out on numerous seats.

The only party that is currently benefitting from this split is the CPC.

Riding data from here: cpac.ca/en/cpac-in-foc…

#cdnpoli #elxn43 #Canada🇨🇦
P.S. Also disappointing to find Vancouver Granville somewhat split as well. If we count JWR as a CON — and let's not be naïve, she believes in conservative "policy" — With the NDP/GRN splitting the LPC vote. This would've been an easy win for Noormohamed with 22,921 votes.
Taking this data, we see lone LPC seats stolen in NS, NB, and AB, and a single NDP seat in SK.

3 BQ seats in QC.

An astounding 21 LPC seats in ON, with two that should've gone NDP (Essex and Oshawa).

8 seats that should've gone LPC, and 2 for NDP in BC.
32 LPC seats, 3 BQ, 5 NDP.

Thus we can calculate new totals with this data. Our representative government based on percentages and votes should look like this.

LPC: 189
CPC: 81 + 1 IND (I'm counting JWR as a CPC seat)
BQ: 35
NDP: 29
GRN: 3
PPC: 0 (well done here Canada).
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