, 7 tweets, 2 min read
My view:
Since Jawar's first fb post (on gov't's attempt to remove his security) last night, violence erupted in much of central Ethiopia, & citizens are hurting.
Jawar is using the situation to perfection, & seems prepared. He isn't just an activist, but a political force.
The gov't seems confused although tried to calm the situation with a press conference to deny some of the allegations by Jawar, though it might not change the situation.
Now it seems that there are clear interests that are enjoying the fiasco. Eg: Abiy's #1 adversaries, TPLF.
TPLF's statement at dawn (as if they had a late night meeting) is still so puzzling. Its summary reads as: Tigray & Amhara aren't enemies, the security situation in the country is bad & the admin'n is incapable, the army must be ready, & act & elections must happen on time.
I've no evidence to suggest TPLF & Jawar are coordinating. But it seems clear that one of them is exploiting the situation so as to show their frustration with the administration.
It seems apparent that Jawar and co want to lead the country de facto to unsettle the country and make Abiy look incapable to control the situation. They will do that until they get the opportunity to defeat him in elections. Jawar is said to be interested in running for office.
If he does, it cements that he is no longer an activist who owns a media, but emerges as direct adversary to PM Abiy. Jawar is now referring to Abiy as neftegna, but then accuses him of also betraying the Amhara elites, which he purposely does 2 create a rift b/n Abiy, Gedu & co.
I think Abiy's coalition could be just fine. But if the gov't continues to be constrained in its options of handling this crisis, the PM's coalition or allies could start to be susceptible by the leadership. The gov't shouldn't allow another de facto gov't. #Ethiopia
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