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Ed Conway

@EdConwaySky

Nov 4, 2019 • 7 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X

Are NHS operation cancellations at an all-time high? That's the impression you might have been left with if you read this story from the Labour party today, about some FOI numbers it's gotten hold of labour.org.uk/press/foi-reve…

Labour's research shows numbers of cancellations in past 3yrs exceeded 80k. Much of that's due to staffing issues & equipment failures. But the main question this chart makes me ask is: OK but if you had bars going further back would they really show it's now an all time high?

The short answer is: no. NHS England has a database of cancellations going back to the '90s. They suggest cancellation numbers are high, but not rising exponentially. NB Labour's figs aren't 100pc comparable since they cover other parts of the UK tho not every trust/region.

But even that doesn't tell full story. There are more NHS patients/operations every yr. Best way of judging cancellations is by dividing them by no of admissions. Which gives you this chart. V different story. Cancellation rate up since 2012 but lower than late 90s or early 2000s

@SkyNews

Actually, politicians DON'T often get their facts plain wrong. But they DO often bend facts and omit context to reinforce their points
That's why, this election campaign, @SkyNews will be running #CampaignCheck to provide analysis & context to help inform your vote on Dec 12

If politicians get stuff totally wrong, we'll call them out. More importantly, we'll try to provide context to show their bald claims often aren't quite as simple or easy as they make them sound. Tweet me or use the #campaigncheck hashtag if you want us to explore specific claims

@SkyNews

Are politicians telling the truth? Is there such a thing as the truth? Can you handle the truth? All questions we’ll be tackling in a new @SkyNews thingy called #campaigncheck. Tweet us if you have any topic requests. More details here: news.sky.com/story/general-…

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More from @EdConwaySky

Ed Conway

@EdConwaySky

May 28

🧵
You may recall a spate of stories a few years ago about appalling working conditions & abysmally low pay in Leicester's clothes factories.
The hope was those stories would shame businesses into improving working conditions.
But here's what ACTUALLY happened next...
👇

Instead of staying in Leicester, most brands abandoned it & shifted production to N Africa & S Asia.
Today Britain's biggest centre of textile & apparel manufacture is battling the threat of extinction.
It's a mostly untold economic story we've spent recent months documenting

Once upon a time Leicester was the beating heart of UK clothes manufacturing.
The city was dotted with factories making clothes for big name brands.
Now, according to one estimate, the number of clothes factories has dropped from 1500 in 2017 to under 100 this year. A 95% fall.

Read 15 tweets

Ed Conway

@EdConwaySky

May 8

How big a deal is the new trade agreement unveiled between the US and the UK? Here are some initial thoughts.
Start with this: this is total UK exports to the US over the past 5yrs: £273bn. Right now most of this will face a 10% tariff. Some things (eg cars) face 25% extra

Let's break down that total. The biggest chunk is cars. Just under £30bn. That's covered under the agreement. So too are steel/aluminium exports. Much smaller at £2.7bn...
These sectors will benefit from special deals (though much of the detail still remains vague).

Rolls Royce will apparently get tariff free access for its jet engines. That mostly helps Boeing, but also Rolls Royce. Jet engines comprise a surprisingly large chunk of UK exports to the US, about £17.3bn. So let's shade that red too...

Read 9 tweets

Ed Conway

@EdConwaySky

Mar 27

🚨
The Chinese owners of British Steel say they are now considering shutting their blast furnaces and end steelmaking at Scunthorpe in early June - only a few months away.
It would mean an end of virgin steelmaking in the country that invented it during the industrial revolution

British Steel say the main question now is timing: whether the operations will close in June, in September or later.
It says tariffs are one of the reasons the blast furnaces are "no longer financially sustainable".
Press release 👇

The news means @jreynoldsMP faces two interlocking crises in the coming months:
1. The imposition of US tariffs on an ever growing segment of British exports
2. The end of virgin steelmaking (the UK would be the first G7 country to face this watershed moment).
This is big stuff

Read 5 tweets

Ed Conway

@EdConwaySky

Mar 25

Donald Trump just announced 25% tariffs on anyone importing oil from Venezuela.
This is odd.
Because the country importing the most crude from Venezuela is... the US.
Capital Economics chart of Ven oil exports by Capital Economics via @rbrtrmstrng
But it raises a bigger point
🧵

Why does the US import so much oil from Venezuela?
Mainly for the same reason it imports so much oil from Canada.
And no it's not just because they're close.
It's because most US refineries are set up to refine the kind of oil they have in Venezuela and Canada.

To understand this it helps to recall that crude oil is actually a broad term. There are LOTS of different varieties of crude - a function of the geology of where the oil formed and the organic ingredients that went into it millions of years ago.
It's called "crude" for a reason

Read 14 tweets

Ed Conway

@EdConwaySky

Mar 23

🚨
Here's a thread about ALUMINIUM.
Why this commonplace metal is actually pretty extraordinary.
How the process of making it is a modern miracle...
... which also teaches you some profound lessons about the trade war being waged by Donald Trump. And why it might be doomed.
🧵

Aluminium is totally amazing.
It's strong but also very light, as metals go.
Essentially rust proof, highly electrically conductive. It is one of the foundations of modern civilisation.
No aluminium: no planes, no electricity grids.
A very different world.

Yet, commonplace as it is today, up until the 19th century no one had even set eyes on aluminium. Unlike most other major metals we didn't work out how to refine it until surprisingly recently.
The upshot is it used to be VERY precious. More than gold!

Read 36 tweets

Ed Conway

@EdConwaySky

Mar 21

🚨TARIFFS🚨
Here's a story that tells you lots about the reality of tariffs both for those paying them & those hoping to benefit from them.
A story of ships, storms, bad luck and bad policy.
It begins a week and a bit ago, with a man frantically refreshing his web browser...
🧵

That man is Liam Bates.
He runs the UK unit of a steel company called Marcegaglia. They make stainless steel - one of the most important varieties of this important alloy. The method of making it was invented in Sheffield. And this company traces its DNA back to that invention.

Watching the process is TOTALLY amazing.
They tip a massive amount of scrap: old car parts, sinks etc, into a kind of cauldron and then lower big glowing electrodes into it.
Then flip the switch.
⚡️Cue a massive thunder sound as a controlled lightning storm erupts inside it.