Ed Conway Profile picture
Nov 4, 2019 7 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Are NHS operation cancellations at an all-time high? That's the impression you might have been left with if you read this story from the Labour party today, about some FOI numbers it's gotten hold of labour.org.uk/press/foi-reve…
Labour's research shows numbers of cancellations in past 3yrs exceeded 80k. Much of that's due to staffing issues & equipment failures. But the main question this chart makes me ask is: OK but if you had bars going further back would they really show it's now an all time high? Image
The short answer is: no. NHS England has a database of cancellations going back to the '90s. They suggest cancellation numbers are high, but not rising exponentially. NB Labour's figs aren't 100pc comparable since they cover other parts of the UK tho not every trust/region. Image
But even that doesn't tell full story. There are more NHS patients/operations every yr. Best way of judging cancellations is by dividing them by no of admissions. Which gives you this chart. V different story. Cancellation rate up since 2012 but lower than late 90s or early 2000s Image
Actually, politicians DON'T often get their facts plain wrong. But they DO often bend facts and omit context to reinforce their points
That's why, this election campaign, @SkyNews will be running #CampaignCheck to provide analysis & context to help inform your vote on Dec 12
If politicians get stuff totally wrong, we'll call them out. More importantly, we'll try to provide context to show their bald claims often aren't quite as simple or easy as they make them sound. Tweet me or use the #campaigncheck hashtag if you want us to explore specific claims
Are politicians telling the truth? Is there such a thing as the truth? Can you handle the truth? All questions we’ll be tackling in a new @SkyNews thingy called #campaigncheck. Tweet us if you have any topic requests. More details here: news.sky.com/story/general-…

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More from @EdConwaySky

May 2
I hate to be pedantic (and no doubt this will mean I'll be labelled as one of those doomsters @KemiBadenoch is calling out here) but there's a few problems with the data the biz/trade sec is quoting here.
When you correct them, the picture looks a little different...
🧵
Let's start with the big one.
In all the charts in the @biztradegovuk document she quotes from, it looks like export volumes are bigger than ever before 👇
Hurrah!
Except this is true only when you fail to adjust for inflation. Which, as we all know, has been VERY high recently Image
Let's take the same @ONS database and use the inflation-adjusted series, as we really should when comparing flows over time.
Suddenly, what looked like an ever-increasing volume of trade is actually a lot more flat.
Goods exports (dark blue bars) are still well below pre-Brexit. Image
Read 13 tweets
Mar 18
NEW
Britain's motoring lobby group the @SMMT has insisted that an unprecedented 2,000% increase in car exports to Azerbaijan has NOTHING to with Russia and is explained by the fact that this former Soviet state is a “flourishing market in its own right”.
This is rather... odd
🧵 Image
Before we get onto that, some background (thread on this here👇).
TLDR: UK car exports to Russia have collapsed, because of sanctions. But UK car exports to countries neighbouring Russia have suddenly risen by nearly the same amount. Esp Azerbaijan
Following my original report we now have new figs on UK car exports.
They show flows to Azerbaijan have continued. £42m in Jan. 3rd highest EVER.
Now there's no way of being 100% sure what's going on here. you can't track consignments beyond Azerbaijan (if they ever reach Az) Image
Read 13 tweets
Mar 12
🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
Let's start at the start.
Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇
So when Russia invaded Ukraine, it was not without significance that all Britain's major carmakers said they would stop sending their cars to Russia.
Anyway, shortly afterwards, the UK imposed sanctions which made it illegal to do so anyway...
There are two sanctions of note here.
First, UK companies cannot send "dual use" items to Russia which could be turned into weapons.
Second, there was a specific ban on the sale of any car over £42k👇
So it's pretty simple. No cars. Esp not luxury cars. legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/452/…
Image
Read 15 tweets
Mar 6
💷BUDGET THREAD💷
A few thoughts on what was supposed to be a big event but ended up feeling, well, a wee bit thin.
And that’s the first thing to say.
Strikingly, this Budget was HALF as big as the Autumn Statement. Look at the difference between the scorecard totals 👇
Image
Image
Was it a tax-cutting Budget?
I mean… not really.
Well, OK, the net impact is taxes aren’t going up as quickly as they were 6 months ago.
But (and I think this is pretty crucial) THEY’RE STILL GOING UP. The tax burden will be higher at the end of this Parliament than before.
Here’s a good illustration of that.
The bars here show you the impact, across the economy, of the decision a few Budgets ago to freeze tax allowances. The bars are in negative territory.
People are paying more in taxes as they get dragged into higher thresholds… Image
Read 14 tweets
Feb 23
🧵Here's a thread about an obscure economic theory from a century and a half ago, which is about to become a MASSIVE deal.
⚡️It helps explains why tackling climate change is going to be v v hard. Some say impossible.
The story begins with this building👇
Yes it's the @SphereVegas.
Not just a massive entertainment venue but also the world's biggest screen. By all accounts it's an amazing spectacle both outside and in, where there's also a ginormous wraparound LED screen (also one of the biggest anywhere)
Get up close to that enormous exterior screen & it looks v different.
You see an array of little glowing pucks, each one decked with 48 light emitting diodes (LEDs). These act as the "pixels" of the image you see from miles around. These things are magic businessinsider.com/what-the-las-v…
Image
Read 32 tweets
Feb 21
🚨How British companies are bolstering Vladimir Putin’s war machine🚨
A depressing thread.
But an important one.
With some pretty shocking charts.
Let’s begin with the “official” picture. It suggests UK trade with Russia has collapsed since Feb 2022. Down by 74%… Image
Now let's fill in the data.
Look how we're no longer exporting cars or heavy machinery to Russia. Because the govt is well aware this stuff could be repurposed into weapons. So the official line is that this is a big success story.
Looks like Russia's economy is being starved Image
But clearly the Russian economy isn't doing as badly as all that. Indeed Russia is due to grow faster than any G7 nation this year 👇
And that's just the economy. Now look at the battlefield and Russia is looking v strong. No shortage of weapons/drones etc despite sanctions
Why? Image
Read 17 tweets

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