Ed Conway Profile picture
Nov 4, 2019 7 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Are NHS operation cancellations at an all-time high? That's the impression you might have been left with if you read this story from the Labour party today, about some FOI numbers it's gotten hold of labour.org.uk/press/foi-reve…
Labour's research shows numbers of cancellations in past 3yrs exceeded 80k. Much of that's due to staffing issues & equipment failures. But the main question this chart makes me ask is: OK but if you had bars going further back would they really show it's now an all time high? Image
The short answer is: no. NHS England has a database of cancellations going back to the '90s. They suggest cancellation numbers are high, but not rising exponentially. NB Labour's figs aren't 100pc comparable since they cover other parts of the UK tho not every trust/region. Image
But even that doesn't tell full story. There are more NHS patients/operations every yr. Best way of judging cancellations is by dividing them by no of admissions. Which gives you this chart. V different story. Cancellation rate up since 2012 but lower than late 90s or early 2000s Image
Actually, politicians DON'T often get their facts plain wrong. But they DO often bend facts and omit context to reinforce their points
That's why, this election campaign, @SkyNews will be running #CampaignCheck to provide analysis & context to help inform your vote on Dec 12
If politicians get stuff totally wrong, we'll call them out. More importantly, we'll try to provide context to show their bald claims often aren't quite as simple or easy as they make them sound. Tweet me or use the #campaigncheck hashtag if you want us to explore specific claims
Are politicians telling the truth? Is there such a thing as the truth? Can you handle the truth? All questions we’ll be tackling in a new @SkyNews thingy called #campaigncheck. Tweet us if you have any topic requests. More details here: news.sky.com/story/general-…

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More from @EdConwaySky

Feb 24
🧵Three years ago, when Russia invaded Ukraine, EU, UK and other nations vowed to wage economic war, via the toughest sanctions in history.
So... how's that going?
We've spent months documenting what ACTUALLY happened. Here's a thread of threads on the REAL story on sanctions...
1. Flows of dual use items, including radar parts, drone components and other parts used by Russia to kill Ukrainians, carried on from the UK and Europe to Russia, via the backdoor (eg the Caucasus & Central Asia)
2. Of all the goods sent by the UK to Russian neighbours, few were as significant as luxury cars.
Having sanctioned Russia (the idea being to starve Putin's cronies of luxuries) Britain (and Europe more widely) began sending those sanctioned cars in via the backdoor instead
Read 9 tweets
Feb 16
If the main thing the US really wants out of a deal with Ukraine is "50% of its rare earth minerals" then I'm surprised this can't be wrapped up pretty quickly.
Why? Because Ukraine doesn't HAVE many rare earth resources.
Really. As far as anyone knows it's got barely any... Image
Yes, Ukraine has lots of coal and iron and manganese.
It also has some potential sizeable reserves of stuff like titanium, graphite and lithium. Not to mention some promising shale gas.
But of the 109 deposits identified by KSE only 3 are rare earth elements Image
Now in one respect I'm making a pedantic point: a lot of people say "rare earth elements" when they actually mean "critical minerals".
The two aren't the same thing.
Rare earth elements are a v specific bit of the periodic table: actually they're NOT all that rare.
More on them👇
Read 7 tweets
Jan 17
🧵THE STRANGE CASE OF THE ONE MILLION POUND FINE
The story of an obscure press release on an obscure website which begs intriguing questions about Britain's "unprecedentedly tough" sanctions regime & why perhaps it's not quite as tough as it looks.
You may find it unsettling
👇
Back in Aug 2023, HMRC published this notice in the bowels of its website. Don't worry if it doesn't ring a bell - it didn't get any publicity.
But it's a big deal. A £1m fine for breaking Russian sanctions rules.
The single biggest fine in relation to trade sanctions. Image
But there are some gaping questions about this fine.
First: who paid it? Is this a firm we've heard of? Second: what did they actually do wrong? And what did they do to deserve to pay such a large sum?
There are no answers on the website. That's it. Here's why this matters. Image
Read 17 tweets
Jan 10
🇨🇳I was rather hoping to be writing this from China, where the Chancellor has just landed for the most significant economic mission in ages - restarting Britain's formal economic relationship with China.
Alas I'm still in London.
But make no mistake; this visit is a BIG deal.
🧵
Why?
Because this is the first such trip since 2017.
UK econ relations with China have been getting frostier for 6 yrs or more.
Huawei have been thrown out; rules imposed on Chinese businesspeople; accusations of spying.
& around the world nations are imposing tariffs on China.
But the UK is doing something different.
While nearly every other G7 nation has imposed tariffs on Chinese electric cars, the UK hasn't. While most countries are going colder on China (most notably the US), the UK is now cosying up to China. Why?
Read 19 tweets
Jan 7
🔥GAS PRICES🔥
Why are they on the rise again?
Why is Europe (and the UK) deindustrialising at a rapid pace?
Why have we failed (contrary to the conventional wisdom) to increase the amount of non-Russian gas in our system?
Lots of questions. Some answers in my five min primer 👇
This is a big deal - and not widely understood:
The volume of non-Russian gas in the European system is FLAT vs before the Ukraine war.
That's not the conventional wisdom.
Back in 2022 many assumed imported LNG would help make up the lost gas from Russia.
That didn't happen... Image
Instead what happened is subtly, but importantly, different.
Yes, the amount of LNG coming in from the US rose quite sharply - albeit from a low base.
But that rise was only enough to compensate for the fact that domestic production in the UK/EU was FALLING at the same time Image
Read 13 tweets
Jan 5
🌾 VERTICAL FARMING🌾
Could it save the world?
I used to be sceptical. There are MANY challenges.
But then I visited one. & I'm no longer so sure.
So with the world facing future food crises here's a thread on the most interesting thing to happen to farming in a long time...
🧵 Image
Let's start with a chart.
A few weeks ago I did a deep data dive into the state of farming in the UK.
It culminated with a v long-run chart suggesting our ability to grow ever more crops in a given hectare is slowing. Possibly stalling.
This is a really big deal
What if we could send the line in that chart 👇into the stratosphere?
It would have massive consequences. We'd be able to get ever more food from a relatively small section of land. Meaning more land for housing/rewilding or whatever else we'd want to use it for. But how? Image
Read 22 tweets

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