Ed Conway Profile picture
Nov 4, 2019 7 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Are NHS operation cancellations at an all-time high? That's the impression you might have been left with if you read this story from the Labour party today, about some FOI numbers it's gotten hold of labour.org.uk/press/foi-reve…
Labour's research shows numbers of cancellations in past 3yrs exceeded 80k. Much of that's due to staffing issues & equipment failures. But the main question this chart makes me ask is: OK but if you had bars going further back would they really show it's now an all time high? Image
The short answer is: no. NHS England has a database of cancellations going back to the '90s. They suggest cancellation numbers are high, but not rising exponentially. NB Labour's figs aren't 100pc comparable since they cover other parts of the UK tho not every trust/region. Image
But even that doesn't tell full story. There are more NHS patients/operations every yr. Best way of judging cancellations is by dividing them by no of admissions. Which gives you this chart. V different story. Cancellation rate up since 2012 but lower than late 90s or early 2000s Image
Actually, politicians DON'T often get their facts plain wrong. But they DO often bend facts and omit context to reinforce their points
That's why, this election campaign, @SkyNews will be running #CampaignCheck to provide analysis & context to help inform your vote on Dec 12
If politicians get stuff totally wrong, we'll call them out. More importantly, we'll try to provide context to show their bald claims often aren't quite as simple or easy as they make them sound. Tweet me or use the #campaigncheck hashtag if you want us to explore specific claims
Are politicians telling the truth? Is there such a thing as the truth? Can you handle the truth? All questions we’ll be tackling in a new @SkyNews thingy called #campaigncheck. Tweet us if you have any topic requests. More details here: news.sky.com/story/general-…

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More from @EdConwaySky

Dec 19
If you're even half interested in energy, I bet you've seen this chart. I call it The Most Hopeful Chart in the World.
The point? We're embracing renewable power MUCH faster than expected.
Hurrah!
Only problem is, this chart has an evil twin. A chart we really need to discuss
🧵 Image
The Most Hopeful Chart in the World shows how each year the @IEA predicted that the amount of solar output around the world would plateau or rise v slowly in the following years. But instead solar output defied all expectations, rising exponentially.
That's great news.
But making solar panels is an energy-intensive exercise.
You need a lot of coal to smelt down the silicon and a lot of power to turn metallurgical silicon into polysilicon, let alone the monocrystalline boules you really need for a decent solar module (read my book for more 📖)
Read 11 tweets
Dec 14
🚜FARMAGEDDON🌾
The story of what's REALLY going on in farming. A story far more complex than the conventional wisdom.
This isn't just (or even mainly) about inheritance tax. It's about a cascade of challenges & crises that may ultimately threaten food security.
📽️5 min primer👇
Let's begin with that big, overarching issue: food security.
For most of the past century, farmers have been encouraged to grow as much food as possible. The story here goes back to WWII and its aftermath, when the conventional wisdom was the UK needed to be more self sufficient Image
Encouraged by the govt, the UK's domestic food production, which before WWII had dropped to just 35% of what we ate, rose rapidly to over 60%.
Some economists say self sufficiency is overrated. But it's one of those post-war principles that stuck.
By accident as much as design. Image
Read 30 tweets
Dec 6
🚗What's happening to Europe's car industry is one of the biggest stories in the world right now, & prob the biggest story of next year too.
A slow motion implosion driven by multiple factors (esp Chinese competition).
Watch my primer on what's going on👇
What makes this moment so dangerous, so destructive for legacy carmakers, is that this is a perfect storm. Three main issues:
1. The shift from conventional engines to batteries is a DISRUPTIVE innovation. The kind of thing Clay Christensen wrote about.
This is a MASSIVE deal...
Think about a combustion engine.
An assembly of HUNDREDS of pieces of metal, all perfectly honed to turn fuel into motion.
Making these things is REALLY hard. Which is why:
a) that's where most of the value/jobs are
b) other countries have struggled to compete making them Image
Read 17 tweets
Nov 28
Today we learnt the no of people flowing into the UK hit an all-time high last yr: an influx we've NEVER seen before either as a total or as a share of the population.
So... why is the @ONS (and some news organisations) reporting this as a FALL in migration?!
Let's dig deeper
🧵
The ONS publishes immigration figures every six months. There's a lot of data, with plenty of provisos all over it.
But as is often the case the story gets simplified in the telling.
Consider the story the last time the data came out. This is how the chart looked 👇 Image
And here's how most people reported the numbers: immigration was going down. Yes, from unprecedented highs - but even so. Down by 10%. A success story, as far as the then govt was concerned. Image
Read 12 tweets
Nov 19
🧵SALT🧵
It's been snowing in the UK and the road gritters are out in force, begging the question:
Have you ever wondered where that grit actually COMES from?
The answer is more magical, beautiful and fascinating than you probably realised.
1/14 Image
Because that dirty-looking salt being spread by trucks on our roads is actually the remains of an ancient ocean (actually two ancient oceans), buried deep beneath our feet.
Most of the stuff being spread in London comes from a single mine in Cheshire - at Winsford.
2/14 Image
Here, about 20 to 40m beneath the meadows of Cheshire, is an enormous slab of halite, rock salt, the remains of an ancient inland sea a couple of hundred million years ago.
This is where most of our salt comes from.
3/14 Image
Read 14 tweets
Oct 31
🧵How worried should we (and @RachelReevesMP) be about the slightly nervy reaction from financial markets towards her first Budget?
Short answer: certainly a bit worried.
But perhaps not for the reasons you might expect...
Worth saying at the outset: these markets are volatile.
Trying to interpret movements in govt bonds is v tricky.
They're moved by all sorts of factors - fiscal, monetary, economic and structural - from all over the world.
So yesterday's Budget is only one of many factors here...
Even so, there has been a marked rise in UK bond yields following the Budget which is greater than what we're seeing in other markets.
This morning the UK 10 year bond yield hit the highest level in nearly a year. It's up 1.7% since yday - far more than US or German equivalents Image
Read 9 tweets

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