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The Iranian people first began protesting in December of 2017.

I'll give you my theory on what's happening.

At the time, @realDonaldTrump said this:
@realDonaldTrump Today, @RichardGrenell said this:
@realDonaldTrump @RichardGrenell Grenell is unique in American history.

Although an ambassador, he's more like @VP.

This is because Pence is working day and night, and Grenell is another Trumpian figure who understands that anything BROKEN can be fixed.
@realDonaldTrump @RichardGrenell @VP I have no doubt that Grenell is briefed like no other US ambassador.

When the Iranians began protesting in late December of 2017, the protests evolved into reconnaissance and rehearsal.
@realDonaldTrump @RichardGrenell @VP For the first time, protests were held in almost every city in Iran.

SMALL protests, but professional soldiers would find these protests useful in gauging the capabilities of the regime.

That was the reconnaissance.

Then came rehearsal.
@realDonaldTrump @RichardGrenell @VP The protestors practiced moving from city to city, bringing in supplies, remaining in communication, and recruiting members of the security forces.

Regime change CAN'T come from outside.

I learned that in 2006, when Israel went to war against Hezbollah.
@realDonaldTrump @RichardGrenell @VP Lebanon turned on a dime. the most anti-Hezbollah Lebanese became Hezbollah's most vocal supporters.

To be blunt, I was horrified.

But I also accept reality. It made me realize that overthrowing Saddam Hussein was a mistake.
@realDonaldTrump @RichardGrenell @VP I was VERY pleased to see what happened in Sudan.

The army overthrew the dictator Omar al-Bashir after long-term protests by the people.

Then there was a massacre of protestors. It was CLEARLY an attempt to discredit the coup leaders.
@realDonaldTrump @RichardGrenell @VP It looked like everything was lost, but the Sudanese asked Trump for help.

Trump sent Donald Booth, who was accepted by all sides.

And a deal was made.
@realDonaldTrump @RichardGrenell @VP Trump and Grenell understand that help must be REQUESTED.

The timetable for regime change in Iran is set by the Iranian people.

We can't have a repeat of the Syrian Civil War.

There has to be a power-sharing agreement BEFORE regime change.
@realDonaldTrump @RichardGrenell @VP The Saudis warned us to not overthrow Saddam Hussein, and we didn't listen.

I myself didn't listen. I thought the Saudis were speaking out of tribal pride.

Well, I've learned a lot since 2003. The main thing I've learned is to LISTEN TO THE LOCALS.
@realDonaldTrump @RichardGrenell @VP We pulled out of northern Syria because the Kurds had made a deal with whoever is propping up the permanently sedated Bashar al-Assad.

I couldn't tell you the role Turkey is playing. I know that Kim Jong-un is without question cooperating, but I don't have a read on Erdogan.
@realDonaldTrump @RichardGrenell @VP During the Battle of Mosul in Iraq, none of the assault troops were filmed.

Everything went horribly for the Iraqis until October of 2015, and then they won every battle until they'd defeated the Islamic State.
@realDonaldTrump @RichardGrenell @VP Combat videos from Mosul show that that there were soldiers from MANY countries taking part in the fighting.

But they fought as Iraqis, and they won't ever admit to being there.

Same thing happened in Syria.

Iran? I don't know.

BUT.
@realDonaldTrump @RichardGrenell @VP The Iranians will get as much help as they REQUEST.

As I said, THEY set the timetable.

The forces we're sending to Saudi Arabia are defensive, not offensive.

Whatever happens, the Saudis won't invade Iran.
@realDonaldTrump @RichardGrenell @VP It's VERY likely that the mullahs will try to fire off their entire missile arsenal, both as a deterrent and out of simple rage.

But we don't actually know the full capabilities of our Middle Eastern allies.

People have been misled by the press. As always.
@realDonaldTrump @RichardGrenell @VP The Saudis are fighting a HOLDING ACTION in Yemen.

There's no point in trying to defeat the Houthis as long as the Iranian mullahs remain in power. The Houthis have risen up regularly since 1994.

Here's what the Saudis know:
@realDonaldTrump @RichardGrenell @VP "It's always great to be underestimated."

--Donald John Trump
@realDonaldTrump @RichardGrenell @VP Whatever happens will be totally unexpected and totally successful.

I envy Grenell and Trump for knowing what they do. As a historian, I'd give both my feet to be briefed on what's REALLY happening.

But I have something better than what Grenell and Trump have.
@realDonaldTrump @RichardGrenell @VP I have Grenell as my ambassador and Trump as my president.

So in a very real way, I'm in a better place than both of them.

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