Ed Conway Profile picture
Nov 21, 2019 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
In their costings document Labour have quietly increased their estimate of how much British Broadband will cost to run. Now £579m a year in cash terms. They were previously saying £230m but they now admit that was an NPV value (so a bit meaningless for the pub finances) Image
Labour have, to their credit, provided the costings for their manifesto. LibDems did too. Wonder if the Tories will (they didn't last time around)? Below are Labour's spending and revenue totals. Full doc labour.org.uk/wp-content/upl… We'll be breaking it down in today's #CampaignCheck ImageImage
Pretty crucial footnote in Labour's manifesto costings document. Whlie they say nationalisations will be "fiscally neutral", the small print here admits that they might actually cost money... Image
For reference, Labour are planning on spending much more than the LibDems. LibDems promised 62.9bn spending. BUT 12.5bn of that was recycled from the spending round. Labour are proposing spending £82.9bn ON TOP of the existing spending round commitments. So: a LOT
Labour predict their income tax rise on the wealthiest will only raise barely half of what it might have - presumably because people will work less or move abroad. In theory it should raise £11.4bn. In practice only £5.4bn. Not clear how much of that is Scotland... Image
Labour should be commended for providing far more detail about how they work out their numbers than last time around. You might disagree with them (are Britons really likely to react to higher taxes much as the Scandanavians do?) but at least the assumptions are there in the open ImageImageImage

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More from @EdConwaySky

Mar 27
🚨
The Chinese owners of British Steel say they are now considering shutting their blast furnaces and end steelmaking at Scunthorpe in early June - only a few months away.
It would mean an end of virgin steelmaking in the country that invented it during the industrial revolution
British Steel say the main question now is timing: whether the operations will close in June, in September or later.
It says tariffs are one of the reasons the blast furnaces are "no longer financially sustainable".
Press release 👇 Image
The news means @jreynoldsMP faces two interlocking crises in the coming months:
1. The imposition of US tariffs on an ever growing segment of British exports
2. The end of virgin steelmaking (the UK would be the first G7 country to face this watershed moment).
This is big stuff
Read 5 tweets
Mar 25
Donald Trump just announced 25% tariffs on anyone importing oil from Venezuela.
This is odd.
Because the country importing the most crude from Venezuela is... the US.
Capital Economics chart of Ven oil exports by Capital Economics via @rbrtrmstrng
But it raises a bigger point
🧵 Image
Why does the US import so much oil from Venezuela?
Mainly for the same reason it imports so much oil from Canada.
And no it's not just because they're close.
It's because most US refineries are set up to refine the kind of oil they have in Venezuela and Canada.
To understand this it helps to recall that crude oil is actually a broad term. There are LOTS of different varieties of crude - a function of the geology of where the oil formed and the organic ingredients that went into it millions of years ago.
It's called "crude" for a reason
Read 14 tweets
Mar 23
🚨
Here's a thread about ALUMINIUM.
Why this commonplace metal is actually pretty extraordinary.
How the process of making it is a modern miracle...
... which also teaches you some profound lessons about the trade war being waged by Donald Trump. And why it might be doomed.
🧵
Aluminium is totally amazing.
It's strong but also very light, as metals go.
Essentially rust proof, highly electrically conductive. It is one of the foundations of modern civilisation.
No aluminium: no planes, no electricity grids.
A very different world. Image
Yet, commonplace as it is today, up until the 19th century no one had even set eyes on aluminium. Unlike most other major metals we didn't work out how to refine it until surprisingly recently.
The upshot is it used to be VERY precious. More than gold!
Read 36 tweets
Mar 21
🚨TARIFFS🚨
Here's a story that tells you lots about the reality of tariffs both for those paying them & those hoping to benefit from them.
A story of ships, storms, bad luck and bad policy.
It begins a week and a bit ago, with a man frantically refreshing his web browser...
🧵
That man is Liam Bates.
He runs the UK unit of a steel company called Marcegaglia. They make stainless steel - one of the most important varieties of this important alloy. The method of making it was invented in Sheffield. And this company traces its DNA back to that invention. Image
Watching the process is TOTALLY amazing.
They tip a massive amount of scrap: old car parts, sinks etc, into a kind of cauldron and then lower big glowing electrodes into it.
Then flip the switch.
⚡️Cue a massive thunder sound as a controlled lightning storm erupts inside it.
Read 15 tweets
Feb 24
🧵Three years ago, when Russia invaded Ukraine, EU, UK and other nations vowed to wage economic war, via the toughest sanctions in history.
So... how's that going?
We've spent months documenting what ACTUALLY happened. Here's a thread of threads on the REAL story on sanctions...
1. Flows of dual use items, including radar parts, drone components and other parts used by Russia to kill Ukrainians, carried on from the UK and Europe to Russia, via the backdoor (eg the Caucasus & Central Asia)
2. Of all the goods sent by the UK to Russian neighbours, few were as significant as luxury cars.
Having sanctioned Russia (the idea being to starve Putin's cronies of luxuries) Britain (and Europe more widely) began sending those sanctioned cars in via the backdoor instead
Read 9 tweets
Feb 16
If the main thing the US really wants out of a deal with Ukraine is "50% of its rare earth minerals" then I'm surprised this can't be wrapped up pretty quickly.
Why? Because Ukraine doesn't HAVE many rare earth resources.
Really. As far as anyone knows it's got barely any... Image
Yes, Ukraine has lots of coal and iron and manganese.
It also has some potential sizeable reserves of stuff like titanium, graphite and lithium. Not to mention some promising shale gas.
But of the 109 deposits identified by KSE only 3 are rare earth elements Image
Now in one respect I'm making a pedantic point: a lot of people say "rare earth elements" when they actually mean "critical minerals".
The two aren't the same thing.
Rare earth elements are a v specific bit of the periodic table: actually they're NOT all that rare.
More on them👇
Read 7 tweets

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