Ed Conway Profile picture
Nov 21, 2019 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
In their costings document Labour have quietly increased their estimate of how much British Broadband will cost to run. Now £579m a year in cash terms. They were previously saying £230m but they now admit that was an NPV value (so a bit meaningless for the pub finances) Image
Labour have, to their credit, provided the costings for their manifesto. LibDems did too. Wonder if the Tories will (they didn't last time around)? Below are Labour's spending and revenue totals. Full doc labour.org.uk/wp-content/upl… We'll be breaking it down in today's #CampaignCheck ImageImage
Pretty crucial footnote in Labour's manifesto costings document. Whlie they say nationalisations will be "fiscally neutral", the small print here admits that they might actually cost money... Image
For reference, Labour are planning on spending much more than the LibDems. LibDems promised 62.9bn spending. BUT 12.5bn of that was recycled from the spending round. Labour are proposing spending £82.9bn ON TOP of the existing spending round commitments. So: a LOT
Labour predict their income tax rise on the wealthiest will only raise barely half of what it might have - presumably because people will work less or move abroad. In theory it should raise £11.4bn. In practice only £5.4bn. Not clear how much of that is Scotland... Image
Labour should be commended for providing far more detail about how they work out their numbers than last time around. You might disagree with them (are Britons really likely to react to higher taxes much as the Scandanavians do?) but at least the assumptions are there in the open ImageImageImage

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More from @EdConwaySky

May 2
I hate to be pedantic (and no doubt this will mean I'll be labelled as one of those doomsters @KemiBadenoch is calling out here) but there's a few problems with the data the biz/trade sec is quoting here.
When you correct them, the picture looks a little different...
🧵
Let's start with the big one.
In all the charts in the @biztradegovuk document she quotes from, it looks like export volumes are bigger than ever before 👇
Hurrah!
Except this is true only when you fail to adjust for inflation. Which, as we all know, has been VERY high recently Image
Let's take the same @ONS database and use the inflation-adjusted series, as we really should when comparing flows over time.
Suddenly, what looked like an ever-increasing volume of trade is actually a lot more flat.
Goods exports (dark blue bars) are still well below pre-Brexit. Image
Read 13 tweets
Mar 18
NEW
Britain's motoring lobby group the @SMMT has insisted that an unprecedented 2,000% increase in car exports to Azerbaijan has NOTHING to with Russia and is explained by the fact that this former Soviet state is a “flourishing market in its own right”.
This is rather... odd
🧵 Image
Before we get onto that, some background (thread on this here👇).
TLDR: UK car exports to Russia have collapsed, because of sanctions. But UK car exports to countries neighbouring Russia have suddenly risen by nearly the same amount. Esp Azerbaijan
Following my original report we now have new figs on UK car exports.
They show flows to Azerbaijan have continued. £42m in Jan. 3rd highest EVER.
Now there's no way of being 100% sure what's going on here. you can't track consignments beyond Azerbaijan (if they ever reach Az) Image
Read 13 tweets
Mar 12
🚨The strange tale of British luxury cars & Russian sanctions🚨
🧵A thread on some v striking charts which raise some disturbing questions abt the car industry.
Let's start at the start.
Wealthy Russians love high-end British cars.
Don't just take it from me. Take it from her 👇
So when Russia invaded Ukraine, it was not without significance that all Britain's major carmakers said they would stop sending their cars to Russia.
Anyway, shortly afterwards, the UK imposed sanctions which made it illegal to do so anyway...
There are two sanctions of note here.
First, UK companies cannot send "dual use" items to Russia which could be turned into weapons.
Second, there was a specific ban on the sale of any car over £42k👇
So it's pretty simple. No cars. Esp not luxury cars. legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/452/…
Image
Read 15 tweets
Mar 6
💷BUDGET THREAD💷
A few thoughts on what was supposed to be a big event but ended up feeling, well, a wee bit thin.
And that’s the first thing to say.
Strikingly, this Budget was HALF as big as the Autumn Statement. Look at the difference between the scorecard totals 👇
Image
Image
Was it a tax-cutting Budget?
I mean… not really.
Well, OK, the net impact is taxes aren’t going up as quickly as they were 6 months ago.
But (and I think this is pretty crucial) THEY’RE STILL GOING UP. The tax burden will be higher at the end of this Parliament than before.
Here’s a good illustration of that.
The bars here show you the impact, across the economy, of the decision a few Budgets ago to freeze tax allowances. The bars are in negative territory.
People are paying more in taxes as they get dragged into higher thresholds… Image
Read 14 tweets
Feb 23
🧵Here's a thread about an obscure economic theory from a century and a half ago, which is about to become a MASSIVE deal.
⚡️It helps explains why tackling climate change is going to be v v hard. Some say impossible.
The story begins with this building👇
Yes it's the @SphereVegas.
Not just a massive entertainment venue but also the world's biggest screen. By all accounts it's an amazing spectacle both outside and in, where there's also a ginormous wraparound LED screen (also one of the biggest anywhere)
Get up close to that enormous exterior screen & it looks v different.
You see an array of little glowing pucks, each one decked with 48 light emitting diodes (LEDs). These act as the "pixels" of the image you see from miles around. These things are magic businessinsider.com/what-the-las-v…
Image
Read 32 tweets
Feb 21
🚨How British companies are bolstering Vladimir Putin’s war machine🚨
A depressing thread.
But an important one.
With some pretty shocking charts.
Let’s begin with the “official” picture. It suggests UK trade with Russia has collapsed since Feb 2022. Down by 74%… Image
Now let's fill in the data.
Look how we're no longer exporting cars or heavy machinery to Russia. Because the govt is well aware this stuff could be repurposed into weapons. So the official line is that this is a big success story.
Looks like Russia's economy is being starved Image
But clearly the Russian economy isn't doing as badly as all that. Indeed Russia is due to grow faster than any G7 nation this year 👇
And that's just the economy. Now look at the battlefield and Russia is looking v strong. No shortage of weapons/drones etc despite sanctions
Why? Image
Read 17 tweets

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