Ed Conway Profile picture
Nov 21, 2019 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
In their costings document Labour have quietly increased their estimate of how much British Broadband will cost to run. Now £579m a year in cash terms. They were previously saying £230m but they now admit that was an NPV value (so a bit meaningless for the pub finances) Image
Labour have, to their credit, provided the costings for their manifesto. LibDems did too. Wonder if the Tories will (they didn't last time around)? Below are Labour's spending and revenue totals. Full doc labour.org.uk/wp-content/upl… We'll be breaking it down in today's #CampaignCheck ImageImage
Pretty crucial footnote in Labour's manifesto costings document. Whlie they say nationalisations will be "fiscally neutral", the small print here admits that they might actually cost money... Image
For reference, Labour are planning on spending much more than the LibDems. LibDems promised 62.9bn spending. BUT 12.5bn of that was recycled from the spending round. Labour are proposing spending £82.9bn ON TOP of the existing spending round commitments. So: a LOT
Labour predict their income tax rise on the wealthiest will only raise barely half of what it might have - presumably because people will work less or move abroad. In theory it should raise £11.4bn. In practice only £5.4bn. Not clear how much of that is Scotland... Image
Labour should be commended for providing far more detail about how they work out their numbers than last time around. You might disagree with them (are Britons really likely to react to higher taxes much as the Scandanavians do?) but at least the assumptions are there in the open ImageImageImage

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More from @EdConwaySky

Nov 19
🧵SALT🧵
It's been snowing in the UK and the road gritters are out in force, begging the question:
Have you ever wondered where that grit actually COMES from?
The answer is more magical, beautiful and fascinating than you probably realised.
1/14 Image
Because that dirty-looking salt being spread by trucks on our roads is actually the remains of an ancient ocean (actually two ancient oceans), buried deep beneath our feet.
Most of the stuff being spread in London comes from a single mine in Cheshire - at Winsford.
2/14 Image
Here, about 20 to 40m beneath the meadows of Cheshire, is an enormous slab of halite, rock salt, the remains of an ancient inland sea a couple of hundred million years ago.
This is where most of our salt comes from.
3/14 Image
Read 14 tweets
Oct 31
🧵How worried should we (and @RachelReevesMP) be about the slightly nervy reaction from financial markets towards her first Budget?
Short answer: certainly a bit worried.
But perhaps not for the reasons you might expect...
Worth saying at the outset: these markets are volatile.
Trying to interpret movements in govt bonds is v tricky.
They're moved by all sorts of factors - fiscal, monetary, economic and structural - from all over the world.
So yesterday's Budget is only one of many factors here...
Even so, there has been a marked rise in UK bond yields following the Budget which is greater than what we're seeing in other markets.
This morning the UK 10 year bond yield hit the highest level in nearly a year. It's up 1.7% since yday - far more than US or German equivalents Image
Read 9 tweets
Oct 8
🚨Latest UK population numbers just landed.
Two headlines:
- The UK natural population (eg domestic births minus deaths) is now FALLING - at the fastest rate in modern history.
- Yet OVERALL population is rising at the fastest rate since 1948 🤯
How? Lemme explain...
🧵
Nearly every year since records began a century and a bit ago, more people in the UK were born than died.
In the year to 2023, that changed.
664k births. 681k deaths.
The net drop of 16k is the biggest on record (also in % terms).
It's a watershed moment for UK demographics. Image
Yet the overall UK population rose.
& not by a little:
...at the fastest rate in 76 years! A near 1% increase.
That's a massive change in the number of people in the country.
How? You probably already know the reason... Image
Read 5 tweets
Sep 24
🚨This is the story of how UK & EU goods are STILL going into Russia in vast quantities, despite sanctions.
Of how the economic war waged by the G7 is failing.
Of how I witnessed sanctions rules broken in plain sight.
But above all else it’s the story of a chart... 🧵
Here’s the chart in question. It shows you UK car exports to Russia.
And there’s a clear story here.
Look: when Russia invaded Ukraine, the UK (and for that matter most of the G7) imposed sanctions on Russia. So exports of cars to Russia stopped.
End of story, right? Image
Wrong, because now look at what happened to exports of UK cars to countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia.
At precisely the same moment as sanctions were imposed on Russia, exports of these cars to Russian neighbours suddenly ROSE. Image
Read 32 tweets
Aug 13
🧵Here’s the extraordinary story of a Frenchman who came up with an invention that changed the world, before events took a twist.
It’s a rollercoaster story that just might help us solve one of the biggest challenges facing humanity.
Sounds far-fetched, I know, but read on… Image
The man in question was Nicolas Leblanc.
Born in 1742, he trained as a doctor but was always short of cash. He became the physician to Louis Philippe II, Duke of Orléans - a minor French royal. Like many enlightened intellectuals, his hobby was scientific experimentation. Image
And when he heard about a scientific competition, launched by the French Academy of Sciences and backed by none other than King Louis XVI, he jumped at the chance. The prize of 2,400 livres (quite a lot - a few years of earnings) would go to whoever could turn salt into soda ash Image
Read 29 tweets
Aug 9
🧵Want to understand why weaning ourselves off fossil fuels like oil is such a tricky challenge?
Best place to start is with this ubiquitous toy👇
This is a thread about what I call the LEGO conundrum.
It begins when you ponder what a LEGO brick is actually made of... Image
Standard Lego bricks are made of something called Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene.
ABS is a tough thermoplastic you often find in the handles of scissors or the frames of hard carry-on baggage cases.
But Lego bricks are prob the most iconic application.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acrylonit…
Image
It's worth saying btw not all Lego pieces are made out of ABS.
Baseplates are moulded from high impact polystyrene. Gearwheels are polyamide.
The small, flexible green pieces that look like plant stalks or flags are polyethylene, and so on and so on.
lego.com/en-us/sustaina…
Read 22 tweets

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