@MayaEarls @chelseaeharvey [1️⃣ of 1️⃣6️⃣] @hausfath's study is nothing but spin. To excuse EXTREME inaccuracies of modeled projections that failed to anticipate negative feedbacks would mitigate GHG emissions, he substituted GHG level increases AFTER the effects of negative feedbacks, in place of emissions.
@MayaEarls @chelseaeharvey @hausfath [2️⃣] The studies which @hausfath claims were accurate were actually wildly INACCURATE, in part because they failed to anticipate how negative CO2 feedbacks like terrestrial greening and ocean processes would remove much of the anthropogenic CO2, mitigating its effect on climate.
@MayaEarls @chelseaeharvey @hausfath [3️⃣] Here's Hansen et al 1988, reporting the results of GISS Model II. They projected +0.5°C/decade for their "Scenario A." (Oddly, their own graph showed only 0.37°C/decade, but the reviewers & editors apparently overlooked that inconsistency.)

sealevel.info/hansen88_predi…
@MayaEarls @chelseaeharvey @hausfath [4️⃣] Note that in their discussion (shown in the previous tweet), Hansen & his seven coauthors implied that +0.5°C/decade was likely, referring to that rate as "the computed temperature changes."
@MayaEarls @chelseaeharvey @hausfath [5️⃣] Here's Hansen 1988's Fig 3 graph, showing 0.37°C/decade for Scenario A, rather than the 0.5°C that they claimed in the text. (You have to measure the graph slope to see that it's only 0.37°C.) I added the red & orange lines, showing the inconsistency:
sealevel.info/hansen88_fig3_…
@MayaEarls @chelseaeharvey @hausfath [6️⃣] Hansen told Congress that Scenario A was the "business as usual" scenario. (His purpose was to worry the politicians enough to get them to support creation of the IPCC, and it worked.) Here's the transcript:
sealevel.info/1988_Hansen_Se…
@MayaEarls @chelseaeharvey @hausfath [7️⃣] Hansen 1988 (published eight weeks after his Congressional testimony) spun it to sound like Scenario A was conservative, until "resource constraints" eventually slow emissions growth, and Scenario B would become more plausible.
sealevel.info/hansen88_descr…
@MayaEarls @chelseaeharvey @hausfath [8️⃣] Under Hansen's scenario A, emissions would have increased by 1.5% per year, totaling 47% in 26 years. Actual CO2 emissions increased even faster: by an average of 1.97% per year, totaling 66% in 26 years. Here's the data:
cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp030/glo…
@MayaEarls @chelseaeharvey @hausfath [9️⃣] @ClimateAudit discovered that in Hansen's Scenario A, in the long term most of the forcing was from CFCs, rather than from CO2. That result was not useful for supporting a campaign to curb CO2 emissions, so it was not mentioned in Hansen's paper.
@MayaEarls @chelseaeharvey @hausfath @ClimateAudit [1️⃣0️⃣] Hansen had told Congress Scenario A was "business as usual," yet it preposterously & dishonestly projected exponential increases in CFCs, even though the 1985 Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer & the 1997 Montreal Protocol promised to phase out CFCs.
@MayaEarls @chelseaeharvey @hausfath @ClimateAudit [1️⃣1️⃣] @hausfath wants you to think Scenario B was supposed to be the realistic one. That's obviously nonsense. Scenario B was “decreasing trace gas growth rates, such that the annual increase of the greenhouse climate forcing remains approximately constant at the present level.”
@MayaEarls @chelseaeharvey @hausfath @ClimateAudit [1️⃣2️⃣] Obviously we didn't have decreasing GHG emissions (except CFCs, per the Vienna Convention & Montreal Protocol, of course). Emissions of the major GHG, CO2, soared even faster than Scenario A. So Scenario B's assumptions obviously did not resemble what really happened.
@MayaEarls @chelseaeharvey @hausfath @ClimateAudit [1️⃣3️⃣] (Also, decreasing GHG growth rates OBVIOUSLY would cause DECREASING "annual increase of the greenhouse climate forcing," not an "approximately constant" annual increase. It is hard to imagine how an error THAT obvious made it through peer review!)
@MayaEarls @chelseaeharvey @hausfath @ClimateAudit [1️⃣4️⃣] Hansen et al wanted us to think Scenario A was the realistic one. They wrote:

"scenario A goes approximately through the middle of the range of likely climate forcing estimated for the year 2030 by Ramanathan… scenario B is near the lower limit of their estimated range."
@MayaEarls @chelseaeharvey @hausfath @ClimateAudit [1️⃣5️⃣] Here's a comparison of Hansen et al 1988 vs. reality:
sealevel.info/hansen1988_ret…

Here's a very complete review, after 20 years (2008):
climateaudit.org/2008/01/16/tho…

Here an excellent review, after 30 years (2018):
judithcurry.com/2018/07/03/the…
@MayaEarls @chelseaeharvey @hausfath @ClimateAudit [1️⃣6️⃣ of 1️⃣6️⃣] Temps increased only 1/3 to 1/4 as much as Hansen's Scenario A prediction, but @hausfath spins Hansen 1988 as "consistent with observations."

(@EcoSenseNow, care to weigh in? Do you think a 200% to 300% error is "consistent with observations"?)

Here's a graph:

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More from @ncdave4life

Aug 14
@JamesFaris_ & @BusinessInsider, here's reality:

Hurricanes and other tropical cyclones:


tl;dr: Hurricanes are not worsening.

sealevel.info/learnmore.html…
climatlas.com/tropical/globa…Image
Tornadoes:


tl;dr: Tornadoes are not worsening.

sealevel.info/learnmore.html…
climateataglance.com/wp-content/upl…Image
Droughts & floods:


tl;dr: Droughts & floods are not worsening.



sealevel.info/learnmore.html…
ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitor…
sealevel.info/US_percentage_…Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 11
1/5. I trust that it is obvious to you that the most important effects of climate change are on agriculture. Right?

So if you really want to read the best relevant scholarly literature, you should start with agronomy papers. Agronomy is a much older, more rigorous, and less politicized field than "climate science," and it's the field which studies the effects of CO2 and climate change on agriculture.



Here are "cereal crops" (wheat, corn, rice, etc.), averaged:
ourworldindata.org/crop-yields
sealevel.info/ourworldindata…Image
@JDubbs1982 @Bidenisafacist @ChrisMartzWX 2/5. For instance, here's a paper about wheat:

Fitzgerald GJ, et al. (2016) Elevated atmospheric CO2 can dramatically increase wheat yields in semi-arid environments and buffer against heat waves. Glob Chang Biol. 22(6):2269-84. doi:10.1111/gcb.13263.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…
@JDubbs1982 @Bidenisafacist @ChrisMartzWX 3/5. That doesn't even take into account the direct benefits of fossil fuels.

Read 6 tweets
Jul 10
1/7. Christopher wrote, "Energy balances, not heat, not a flux."

Flux just means flow or movement. "Energy flux" is synonymous with "movement of energy."

Inbound solar radiation is a flux. So is outbound LW IR.

Definitions:
1.
2. ahdictionary.com/word/search.ht…
scienceworld.wolfram.com/physics/Flux.h…
@CDCollins5269 @Willard1951 @jpgcrowley @AdrianC47C @ShroedingerBird @ChrisBBacon3 @Mark_A_Lunn @Rosie45703313 @PvtMcAuslan @EthonRaptor @Anvndarnamn5 @DaleGribble_666 @priscian @Then__And__Now @tim_dunkerton @AristotleMrs @FD2you @BradPKeyes @KCTaz @0Sundance @TheDisproof @BointonGiles @Climatehope2 @Jaisans @S_D_Mannix @TWTThisIsNow @paulp1232 @MartinJBern @Data79504085 @ammocrypta @B_Bolshevik100 @Robert76907841 @EricWil06256732 @ProfMickWilson @FillmoreWhite @TommyLambertOKC @JohnDublin10 @NoTricksZone 2/7. If you call incoming fluxes positive and outgoing fluxes negative, then an "energy imbalance" simply means incoming plus outgoing fluxes do not sum to zero.

Persistent energy imbalance causes temperature change. That gives us clues to estimate EEI.
sealevel.info/radiative_imba…
3/7. Willard wrote, "The what matter's is the Earth's overall energy imbalance (EEI)"

If it REALLY mattered to Willard, he wouldn't play make-believe with it.
Read 8 tweets
Jul 9
1/15≫ Dr. Belch (why oh why isn't she a gastroenterologist?) seems not to recognize the significance of the story.

Climate activists predicted that if Earth's average temperature got to 1.5°C above the pre-industrial (late Little Ice Age) baseline it would be a disaster. But they did, and nothing bad happened.

The significance of that is that it means the climate activists were completely wrong.
2/15≫ In case you're wondering, the 4 known factors which caused 2023 to be so mild were:

1. A strong El Niño spike. And

2. IMO 2020 shipping regulations drastically reduced sulfate aerosol air pollution (The IMO says they resulted in "an estimated 46% decrease in ship-emitted aerosols," which equates to a sudden 10% decrease in total global SO2 emissions, which is a large improvement in a short time, with a significant warming effect). And

3. The unusual 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption, which humidified the stratosphere. And

4. Also a little bit of warming from the ongoing slow rise in atmospheric CO2 levels (though only about 25 ppmv/decade).

It's all good, though (unfortunately) #1 & #3 are temporary.
3/15≫
Q: And what was the result of all that warmth?

A: Nothing. Nothing bad, anyhow.

We still get storms, but they're no worse than in the past.
sealevel.info/learnmore.html…
Read 16 tweets
Jul 4
1/7. Contrary to Prof. Christopher Taylor's claim, global greening is not "maxed out." That outlier Baozhang Chen study he cited is even contradicted by the IPCC:

(Note: accelerated terrestrial carbon uptake = greening.)
2/7. Here's a compilation of that thread (because Twitter/𝕏 keeps shadowbanning my tweetstorms):


@elonmusk, @lindayaX, @support, @premium PLEASE end 𝕏's SHADOWBANNING of replies — even replies to one's own tweets (tweetstorms). What good is a tweetstorm if you can't find the 2nd tweet while viewing the 1st?threadreaderapp.com/thread/1719382…
3/7. Xin Chen et al (2024) refutes that outlier Baozhang Chen et al (2022) study:

Chen, Xin et al (2024). The global greening continues despite increased drought stress since 2000. Global Ecology and Conservation, Volume 49, 2024, e02791, doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2023.e02791.sciencedirect.com/science/articl…Image
Read 8 tweets
Jul 4
1/10. When climate activists like Prof. Christopher Taylor have the power to block publication and deny tenure to young professors with differing opinions, it corrupts academia and distorts science.

sealevel.info/ammocrypta_180…
Image
2/10. Scientific consensuses exist about many things, but we don't talk much about them, because we don't disagree about them. If there's a hot debate about the existence of a consensus, it means there's no consensus.
3/10. One of the dishonest tactics used by the parasitic climate industry to promote their products is to pretend there's a scientific consensus that the "climate crisis" is real. That's a plain lie.
Read 11 tweets

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