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@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 1/ Trump has made the strong US economy a core part of his reelection campaign. The President routinely talks about how low the unemployment rate is and has worked to build a narrative that under his administration, the economy has improved significantly.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 2/ Job growth has been robust under Trump but it still lags behind the pace set during the final two years of the Obama administration.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 3/ From January 2017 through May 2019, the US economy has added an average of 195,000 new jobs every month, compared to 210,000 a month during 2015 and 2016.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 1/ The connection between a president and equity markets isn’t straightforward.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 2/ Many factors—the general health of the economy, investors sentiment, interest rates, financial stimulus, and global business conditions, for example—affect how stocks perform. But presidents also aren’t unimportant.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 3/ “Policies may or may not be helpful for economic growth,” says Kenneth Orr, CEO of investment research firm and value investment fund manager KORR Acquisitions Group.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 4/ “Policies are led by the President and his Administration, but Congress must pass laws and budgets to affect those policies.”
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 5/ And so, as Fortune did in early June, we decided to take a look at how the markets performed during the Administrations of Barack Obama and Trump. We downloaded historical information on the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 indexes from Yahoo Finance.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 6/ Then we compared the same periods for both presidents: from inauguration on January 20 to Oct. 31 in their third year of office.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 7/ Because the market had already run up a long way before Trump was elected, the absolute numbers would be misleading. Instead, Fortune compared the performance under each president to his initial inauguration day to get an accurate comparison of growth under each.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 Here’s why I have problems with trump: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1208921…
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 1/ The House is after Trump’s tax & financial records because it suspects Trump is a tax cheat & a money launderer for Russian oligarchs. Trump would ignore attempts to get that evidence from him, so the House subpoenaed it from his accountants (Mazars) & bankers (Deutsche Bank).
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 2/ House subpoenas were issued by two committees: Financial Services and Intelligence. Financial Services said it wanted the records to help consider new laws that might stop Trump’s crimes in the future. Intelligence said it wants the records to see whether Trump is compromised.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 3/ Trump hired personal lawyers to intervene and block the subpoenas that were issued to Mazars and Deutsche Bank. Trump’s lawyers are arguing that Congress lacks a valid “legislative purpose” for getting Trump’s financial records. Let’s look closely at those arguments.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 4/ Financial Services wants the records as a “test case” to see if it needs new money laundering laws.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 5/ Trump claims they really want the records for “law enforcement,” i.e., to see whether Trump committed crimes. Congress doesn’t have law enforcement power, so this would be invalid.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 6/ So this argument comes down to whether the court believes Financial Services or thinks they are lying. In both the Marzars and Deutsche Bank cases, the lower courts ruled in favor of Congress. Two separate appellate courts have reviewed the lower court rulings.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 7/ But, remember, the Intelligence Committee has a different rationale for its subpoena, namely to see whether Trump is compromised. Trump’s legal team really has no argument against this rationale because it’s clearly legit and within Intel’s purview.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 8/ What this means is that Trump needs to defeat BOTH Financial Services AND Intelligence in order to keep his tax and financial records from getting to Judiciary for use in connection with the impeachment inquiry. Which means Trump is DOOMED.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 9/ The House already won both cases in district court. Mazars appeal was argued on 7/12 in the DC Circuit Court of Appeals and the Deutsche Bank case was argued on 8/23 in 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 10/ Both courts should find for the House, [they did] leaving Trump with an appeal to #SCOTUS.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 11/ Once the cases go to SCOTUS the question is whether SCOTUS will issue a Writ of Certiorari (i.e., hear the case). I can see SCOTUS taking the FinServ issue on appeal, but not the Intelligence issue. At that point, the House can drop the FinServ portion and moot the appeal.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 12/ The upshot of all this is that the House Intelligence Committee will get Trump’s tax & financial records showing him to be a tax cheat and a money launderer. And Intelligence will promptly share those documents with the Judiciary Committee for use in the impeachment inquiry.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 13/ Here’s the best part: Once the courts find the subpoenas valid, there’s nothing Trump or DOJ can do to stop them from being turned over. Mazars and Deutsche Bank are the ones holding the documents and they already have said they will comply with whatever the courts order.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 14/ And the Intelligence Committee hired Daniel Goldman (former deputy chief of the organized crime section of Manhattan US Attorney’s office) and Daniel Noble (co-chief of the complex frauds and cybercrime unit of Manhattan US Attorney’s office) to analyze Trump’s financials.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 15/ House General Counsel Douglas Letter said in open court this past Friday (8/23) that the Intelligence Committee needs Trump’s financial records because it has reason to believe he’s compromised by Russia AND Saudi Arabia. @SethAbramson @tribelaw
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 @SethAbramson @tribelaw @threadreaderapp 1/ When numerous women accused him of sexual assault late in the 2016 campaign, Trump called them “liars” and said he would SUE them. He HASN’T.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 @SethAbramson @tribelaw @threadreaderapp 2/ A New York appellate court on rejected President Trump’s attempt to block the defamation suit of an Orange County woman who says he lied during the 2016 campaign about sexually assaulting her at the Beverly Hills Hotel.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 @SethAbramson @tribelaw @threadreaderapp 3/ The court’s 3-to-2 ruling enables Summer Zervos, a former contestant on “The Apprentice,” to press forward toward a Manhattan trial of her allegation that Trump defamed her by branding her a liar in the weeks before he was elected president.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 @SethAbramson @tribelaw @threadreaderapp 4/ Trump’s legal team argued that the U.S. Constitution immunizes him from state court lawsuits arising from his private conduct before he took office.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 @SethAbramson @tribelaw @threadreaderapp 5/ The court disagreed, opening the way for Trump to be deposed about what Zervos says was a SEXUAL ASSAULT in his bungalow at the Beverly Hills Hotel in 2007.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 @SethAbramson @tribelaw @threadreaderapp 6/ Zervos attorney Mariann Wang said she was pleased the court affirmed Trump was “not above the law.”
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 @SethAbramson @tribelaw @threadreaderapp 7/ Thursday’s court ruling cited the U.S. Supreme Court’s rejection of President Clinton’s attempt to block the federal lawsuit that Paula Jones filed against him for sexual harassment.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 @SethAbramson @tribelaw @threadreaderapp 1/ Who likes grifters?? Trump Pays $2 Million to 8 Charities for Misuse of Foundation.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 @SethAbramson @tribelaw @threadreaderapp 2/ Under a settlement, the president admitted he had used his charity to bolster his campaign and settle business debt.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 @SethAbramson @tribelaw @threadreaderapp 3/ New York Attorney General Barbara Underwood has announced that the Trump Foundation will dissolve. The foundation was established by Donald Trump well before he ran for president.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 @SethAbramson @tribelaw @threadreaderapp 4/ Underwood said her office had detailed "a shocking pattern of illegality involving the Trump Foundation — including unlawful coordination with the Trump presidential campaign, repeated and willful self-dealing, and much more.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 @SethAbramson @tribelaw @threadreaderapp 5/ This amounted to the Trump Foundation functioning as little more than a checkbook to serve Mr. Trump's business and political interests."
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 @SethAbramson @tribelaw @threadreaderapp 6/ Underwood sued the foundation in June, saying it repeatedly solicited money from donors and then used it for campaign-related purposes, violating federal election law.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 @SethAbramson @tribelaw @threadreaderapp 7/ The money also was used to benefit Trump's business interests by settling legal claims against it, for example, Underwood said.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 @SethAbramson @tribelaw @threadreaderapp 8/ As part of the settlement, Mr. Trump, who at first dismissed the suit as a political attack, made 19 detailed admissions, acknowledging, for example, that the foundation had purchased the $10,000 portrait of himself that was ultimately displayed at one of his Florida hotels.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 @SethAbramson @tribelaw @threadreaderapp 9/ He also admitted to using the foundation’s money to settle obligations of some of his for-profit companies, including a golf club in Westchester County, N.Y., and Mar-a-Lago, his private club in Florida which he frequently visits.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 @SethAbramson @tribelaw @threadreaderapp 10/ And he admitted that the foundation had given his presidential campaign control over about $2.8 million that the foundation had raised at a veterans fund-raiser in Iowa in January 2016. Mr. Trump acknowledged the fund-raiser was in fact a campaign event.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 @SethAbramson @tribelaw @threadreaderapp 11/ As part of the settlement, other stipulations in the lawsuit were resolved, including one related to the Trump family’s involvement with charities.
@astellarwedding @CatHoffman14 @SethAbramson @tribelaw @threadreaderapp 12/ The settlement required mandatory training for the three elder Trump children and imposed restrictions on Donald J. Trump should he join another charity as director.
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