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@IHateNYT @gumcuddle @eastversewest @almost_biblical @RyanGirdusky @BlueBoxDave Iranian coastal defenses would likely render the entire Persian Gulf off limits to U.S. Navy warships. Iran’s advanced surface-to-air missile defenses would be a significant threat to U.S. pilots.
@IHateNYT @gumcuddle @eastversewest @almost_biblical @RyanGirdusky @BlueBoxDave And Iran’s arsenal of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles put U.S military installations across the U.S. Central Command region at risk. The cost in U.S. casualties could be high.
@IHateNYT @gumcuddle @eastversewest @almost_biblical @RyanGirdusky @BlueBoxDave Electronic attacks volley across cyberspace, leading to entire power grids shut down. Electronic jamming floods the airwaves, degrading communication and control across military networks as commanders battle to see what’s happening in real time in a way ...
@IHateNYT @gumcuddle @eastversewest @almost_biblical @RyanGirdusky @BlueBoxDave ..they’ve not had to contend with for more than a generation, if ever. All the while the network of proxy Iranian jihadi cells, from the Middle East to Cent. America find novel & makeshift ways to poke, prod & provoke the US by hitting soft targets whenever and wherever possible.
@IHateNYT @gumcuddle @eastversewest @almost_biblical @RyanGirdusky @BlueBoxDave No American will be safe almost anywhere in the world.
@IHateNYT @gumcuddle @eastversewest @almost_biblical @RyanGirdusky @BlueBoxDave Iran’s undisputed military strength is in its diverse and rapidly-improving array of ballistic missiles, which it has supplied frequently to its allies across the region.
@IHateNYT @gumcuddle @eastversewest @almost_biblical @RyanGirdusky @BlueBoxDave In a war with Iran or one of its proxies, the United States would have to grapple with missiles capable of traveling at least 3,000 kilometers, according to the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
@IHateNYT @gumcuddle @eastversewest @almost_biblical @RyanGirdusky @BlueBoxDave Seventeen years ago, a $250 million war game conducted by the US military pondered the same possible conflict. That exercise, conducted in the lead-up to the American invasion of Iraq, simulated a war in the Persian Gulf, where American troops were promptly defeated.
@IHateNYT @gumcuddle @eastversewest @almost_biblical @RyanGirdusky @BlueBoxDave Nineteen US ships sank, including an aircraft carrier, according to political scientist Micah Zenko, who highlighted the war game in his book, Red Team: How to Succeed by Thinking Like the Enemy.
@IHateNYT @gumcuddle @eastversewest @almost_biblical @RyanGirdusky @BlueBoxDave Nearly two decades later, the circumstances have changed but the potential cost of another Gulf War remains high, particularly because of Iran’s continuing ability to navigate the narrow Strait of Hormuz.
@IHateNYT @gumcuddle @eastversewest @almost_biblical @RyanGirdusky @BlueBoxDave The US Navy may far outstrip Iran in its number of sailors and diversity of carriers and boats, but the location of any maritime conflict would significantly benefit Iran, which prefers to fight the US as a scrappy underdog on its own turf.
@IHateNYT @gumcuddle @eastversewest @almost_biblical @RyanGirdusky @BlueBoxDave Iran has already demonstrated its ability to escalate tensions in the Strait by bombing at least six oil tankers in recent weeks.
@IHateNYT @gumcuddle @eastversewest @almost_biblical @RyanGirdusky @BlueBoxDave If the Strait remained open to commercial traffic, ships belonging to the United States or its allies would be vulnerable to attacks, especially if Iranian vessels were able to disguise themselves as civilian transports.
@IHateNYT @gumcuddle @eastversewest @almost_biblical @RyanGirdusky @BlueBoxDave The Strait’s narrow shipping lanes—only 1.6 nautical miles wide at certain points—would further constrain how quickly American war boats would be able to respond to attacks from Iranian submarines.
@IHateNYT @gumcuddle @eastversewest @almost_biblical @RyanGirdusky @BlueBoxDave “You’re looking for small boats hidden potentially among plenty of civilian boats in an area that has a lot of commercial traffic,” says John Gay, co-author of the book War With Iran, making it difficult for the US “to achieve a really decisive result.”
@IHateNYT @gumcuddle @eastversewest @almost_biblical @RyanGirdusky @BlueBoxDave War with Iran by necessity would almost have to involve its regional neighbors and adversaries, including Israel, Lebanon, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, and Russia.
@IHateNYT @gumcuddle @eastversewest @almost_biblical @RyanGirdusky @BlueBoxDave Iranian proxies could support Tehran by targeting US troops in Iraq or continuing to use their perch in Yemen to bomb Saudi Arabia, which is America’s close ally and Iran’s sectarian enemy.
@IHateNYT @gumcuddle @eastversewest @almost_biblical @RyanGirdusky @BlueBoxDave Then depending on the route American bombers take to reach Iran, they run the risk of angering Iran’s neighbors. “You’re either going to fly in over Iraq or fly in over parts of Syria which has very good air defenses,” Gay says. “That’s where the best Russian air defenses are.”
@IHateNYT @gumcuddle @eastversewest @almost_biblical @RyanGirdusky @BlueBoxDave Then there’s the economic element. Oil prices would soar if the Strait of Hormuz were closed to commercial traffic.
@IHateNYT @gumcuddle @eastversewest @almost_biblical @RyanGirdusky @BlueBoxDave Trump has no exit strategy?? Really?? WTF?? Trump showed no signs of backing down on Tuesday when a reporter asked if he had an exit strategy planned in the event of war breaking out. “You are not going to need an exit strategy,” he replied. “I don’t need exit strategies.”
@IHateNYT @gumcuddle @eastversewest @almost_biblical @RyanGirdusky @BlueBoxDave Whether he intends to sow confusion or communicate incoherence, the president has managed to bring things to a near boiling point with Iran.
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