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Are Democrats too woke for their own electorate? I decided to look at how announcing one's pronouns in their Twitter bio, taken as proxy for signalling wokeness, correlates with success at the polls, using the RCP average. The data is suggestive. 1/n
Of the major candidates left plus Harris and Castro, those who announce their pronouns on Twitter are averaging 5.1 on RCP, compared to 10.7 for those who don't. I use Harris and Castro numbers when they left the race. 2/n
Yes on pronouns: Warren, Buttigieg, Booker, Steyer, Harris, and Castro. No on pronouns: Biden, Bernie, Tulsi, Yang, Bloomberg, and Klobuchar. 3/n
Sample size too small to be sure, but seems to me that a lot of yeses underperformed relative to expectations: Harris, Booker, Castro. Meanwhile, people are surprised at staying power of Biden and Bernie, both nos. Buttigieg is exception, but perceived as moderate. 4/n
Yang and Gabbard, both nos, I think have both done better than most would have predicted. So the case would be even stronger if we considered expectations at the beginning. 5/n
The failures of Castro, Harris, and Booker have been blamed on racism by the media. But minority Democrats tend to be less "woke" than whites, and these candidates have leaned into such issues. Maybe this is a reason black and Hispanic Democrats prefer Biden and Sanders. 6/n
This seems to be in part a generational thing. The average age of the No-Pronouns is 62.2. The average age of the Yes-Pronouns is 53.2. In the future, announcing pronouns may differentiate Democrats from Republicans instead of different kinds of Dems. 7/n
I know an undergrad who was running for student government and began a speech with pronouns. He was somewhat conservative, so I was surprised. He said you have to do it or you come under suspicion. It seems that the Democratic primary is not there yet, but could be next time. 8/n
In the future, I can imagine Democrats adding pronouns. I can't imagine anyone who already has them taking them off. Thus, it seems possible that the number of Yes-Pronouns grows, and then a new equilibrium is reached where you're signalling something by not having them. 9/n
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