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Celeste Labedz Profile picture
@celestelabedz
Jan 11, 2020 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Since significant earthquakes tend to bring out the charlatans, a reminder: no one can PREDICT earthquakes.

The USGS is offering aftershock FORECASTS for the #PuertoRicoEarthquakes to help the public be aware and prepared for possible scenarios: usgs.gov/news/magnitude…
🚫Prediction: Knowing the time, location, & magnitude of a quake before it occurs. If someone says they're predicting quakes, they're NOT using science to do it.

✅Forecast: Possible scenarios with their associated probabilities, made with science!

More: usgs.gov/faqs/are-earth…
Buena explicación para aquellos que necesitan o prefieren español:

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More from @celestelabedz

Celeste Labedz Profile picture
Sep 19, 2022
Today in astounding coincidences: Mexico had a nationwide earthquake safety drill today to mark the anniversary of the Sept 19, 2017 M 7.1 quake and the Sept 19, 1985 M 8.0 quake.

An hour after the drill, a M 7.6 quake struck.
mexiconewsdaily.com/news/nationwid…
Note: "astounding" in a human perspective doesn't mean anything geophysically strange is up! Mexico is no stranger to large quakes (especially on the subduction zone), and the probability of date coincidences can be surprising, as in the Birthday Problem: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_…
To have 50% odds on a triply-shared birthday (or quakeday) among randomly-distributed birthdays, you need a group of 87. For a group of 30 (~# of M>7 quakes on the Cocos subduction zone since the 1985 quake), the odds of a triply-shared date is ~3%. Higher than you might think!
Read 5 tweets
Celeste Labedz Profile picture
Oct 3, 2021
People occasionally DM me the earthquake "prediction" charlatans they stumble upon on social media, and I've seen enough to do a little write-up.

Here it is: my Taxonomy of Quake Quacks!

🧵
Before we get started with the categories, a reminder: no one can meaningfully predict earthquakes before they happen. Everyone (scientists especially!) would love if useful, better-than-random prediction existed, but nothing yet has stood up to scientific scrutiny.
Here are my categories. They may not be completely exhaustive, and they can overlap in one individual, but I think they cover most of what I've seen:
Read 21 tweets
Celeste Labedz Profile picture
Sep 14, 2021
#MetGala2021 looks as minerals:

Amanda Gorman - Azurite Amanda Gorman in a glittery blue hi-lo gown, next to an azur
Serena Williams - Rhodochrosite, Quartz, Hubnerite Serena Williams in a silver jumpsuit shrouded by a fluffy pi
Dan Levy - Fluorapatite, Hardystonite, Willemite, Calcite (under UV) Dan Levy in a blue and green outfit with a map print, featur
Read 24 tweets
Celeste Labedz Profile picture
Oct 4, 2020
How do earthquake “prediction” con artists make it LOOK like they have a good track record, even though they’re totally unscientific hoaxters?

Let a seismologist fill you in.

Thread:
First, to be abundantly clear: no one can usefully predict earthquakes before they happen. Not you, not your pet, not some guy on the internet. We’d all love if good predictions were possible (seismologists included!), but nothing yet has stood up to scientific rigor.
Why talk about this? With the recent swarm on the Brawley Seismic Zone, we (again) saw prediction charlatans try to prey on anxieties and peddle misinformation. That sucks, of course, but it’s also actually dangerous, because it can muddle important information from real experts.
Read 15 tweets
Celeste Labedz Profile picture
Jul 23, 2020
It’s here: the lockdown seismology paper is out in @ScienceMagazine! Here’s a thread sharing how this paper came to be, an intro to what we found, and a note on why it’s interesting. science.sciencemag.org/content/early/…
Back in March, @seismotom posted this figure to @Seismologie_be of ambient seismic noise on a seismometer in Belgium, showing a decrease in noise power when their local lockdown went into effect:
Lots of seismologists (myself included) were intrigued when we saw it, so we each started processing data from our local areas, posting the results to Twitter, and discussing it all in the replies. It was social distancing seismic noise, and social media seismology!
Read 16 tweets
Celeste Labedz Profile picture
May 30, 2020
Required reading for geoscientists in the U.S. (and recommended reading for anyone who loves the outdoors) relevant to recent events: "Black Faces, White Spaces" by Dr. Carolyn Finney, about the relationships between Black Americans, the outdoors, and environmental organizations. Book cover of Black Faces, ...
The book discusses the history of Black relationships with the environment, the way that this history informs modern collective memory, Black representation in outdoors-focused media and organizations, and Black action for and exclusion from environmental causes.
One major point of the book is that many outdoors and environmental spaces have been and still are unfriendly and unsafe for Black people, as demonstrated by recent cases like Christian Cooper, leading to a disconnect in Black participation in and perception of the outdoors.
Read 9 tweets

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