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1. The mess in #Libya is at least as complex as the mess in #Afghanistan: In Afghanistan the #Kabul-government, supported by #NATO, controls little more than Kabul.

In #Libya "Prime Minister" Fayez #Sarraj only controls a small part in the North, around #Tripoli.

2. While Khalifa #Haftar, the commander of the Libyan National Army (#LNA), controls the larger part of #Libya. He does not control greater #Tripoli and in the South local warlords rule.

#AnneWill #LibyaConference
3. To make things more messy:
The "Prime Minister of Tripolis", Fayez #Sarraj, is supported by
#Turkey (troops in Libya)

#Haftar is supported by
#Russia (RUS mercenaries in Libya)
#France (#NATO-partner & #EU)

4. Before I get to more details on the many parties involved (and some of their backers) one needs to state: The #LibyaConference can at best accomplish a short term #ceasefire!

Have the parties above (in 3.) disclosed all their interests (and there are many)? NO!

5. Local players who support the "Prime Minister of Tripoli", Fayez #Sarraj:
There are too many to mention, but includes mainly the former #army, #MisrataBrigades (anti-#Gaddafi), the "Petroleum Facilities Guard" (#PFG) a militia led by Idris Bukhamada to cash in on oil!#AnneWill
6. On top of the above there are around a dozen other "brigades" and warlords that support #Sarraj: Includes the #SNA (supported by #Turkey) and the #ZintanBrigades.
Their interests range from defending certain towns or territories, to defending minorities, to #oil-$!
7. On the opposing side are too many players to mention (unless I want to create a thread of 25 tweets or more), but most are headed by Islamic leaders - #ISIS alone has 3 different branches in #Libya.
Google "National Salvation Government", "Shura Council", "Tobruk"
8. Khalifa Belqasim #Haftar, former Field Marshall, is a dual Libyan-American citizen (!), who likes to present himself as "moderate" (yes, lots of moderates in this part of the world), is supported by #Putin, and wants to establish a military dictatorship!
9. The two big questions to ask:
a) Would #Libya be in this mess without the #RegimeChange of #Obama & #HillaryClinton?
Little spoiler: "NO!"
b) Would there be this many "interested parties" without the #oil-billions?
Second spoiler: "NO!"
#LibyaConference #AnneWill
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