Thread by @studentactivism

One reason I'm for Warren is that there's no candidate I trust more to handle the rolling national crisis which will consume the period between election night 2020 and inauguration day 2021 in the event of a Democratic victory.

https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1219620759162826754

Okay, so what did I mean by this? (I've given my final exam and I've got time for a thread. Here goes.)

First, I'm not just talking about—or even primarily talking about—the possibility that Trump might decisively lose the election but flatly refuse to leave office. That's just one scenario of many, and almost certainly not the most likely one.

(Although see this thread from last spring about how bizarre I find it that that particular nightmare outcome is being normalized on elite political discourse.)

https://twitter.com/studentactivism/status/1124772764349599744

So what am I talking about, if not that? A bunch of stuff. Some examples:

A Florida 2000 situation, in which the Electoral College depends on the results of one or more too-close-to-call states, and the GOP starts manipulating the process to achieve its desired outcome.

A longterm simmering crisis in which Trump loses, and immediately starts giving speeches and sending tweets that say the election was stolen.

Chaos in the transition, with the Trump administration refusing to make provisions for an orderly transfer of power, or to follow the protocols that have allowed new presidents to take office on inauguration day in a seamless way.

Election day chaos in swing states—a cyberterror incident in Detroit, say—that depresses voter turnout in Dem-leaning areas and throws the results of the election into doubt.

Demonstrations or riots associated with recounts, or with the meeting of the Electoral College, or with court or legislative sessions connected to disputed election results.

Or any or all of the above in connection with a Senate race on which control of that chamber depended, or any of a zillion other possibilities.

I'm not expecting an attempt to outright steal the election, but I'm also not expecting a smooth transition. And if we're being honest, none of us should place too much credence in ANY of our predictions at this point.

And again, we've already seen what Florida 2000 looks like—we know it CAN happen, because it HAS happened. And a Florida 2000 in 2020 would be far, far uglier than the original.

If one of these scenarios comes to pass—even a "mild" one, in which Trump merely rhetorically rejects the results of the election, and attempts to convince his supporters that the incoming president has no democratic legitimacy—the country will face a new and dangerous crisis.

In any such situation, the choices made by the Democratic candidate will shape the transition—and, in the most serious scenarios, may even be decisive in determining who occupies the White House on the evening of January 20, 2020.

The Democrats are going to need a nominee who is tactically and strategically nimble in navigating political and legal institutions, and one with the chops to build and lead to a smart, capable, and aggressive team.

They're going to need a nominee who is willing to defend his or her interests, the interests of the voters, and the interests of democracy effectively and without apology in the face of hostile opposition.

They're going to need a nominee who recognizes the power of mass mobilization in a time of national crisis.

They're going to need a nominee who can not just face up to the challenges of the transition period, but meet them in a way that strengthens, rather than weakening, their subsequent presidency.

Different people can reach different conclusions about which candidate is most likely to do these things. And it's not a question on which there can be only one obvious correct answer.

Part of the complexity here is that we're not just talking about one skillset here, not just one audience that'll need reaching, not just one obvious strategy that will need to be executed. Reasonable people can disagree on how they weigh the candidates here.

But if everything goes to hell on election night, and Elizabeth Warren is the Democratic nominee? I personally like our chances.

Why? Well, for starters, she's already articulated a forceful plan for how she intends to approach the transition, one that's got obvious applicability to the kinds of disruption I'm talking about here.

https://twitter.com/studentactivism/status/1219713255939215361

Warren has said she intends to put her full cabinet in place by December 1, and have the new administration's senior and mid-level staffing complete before she takes office.

She's not looking to find common ground with recalcitrant Republicans, or counting on them to have post-Trump epiphanies. She's preparing to advance her agenda using all the tools at her disposal, and she's already laid out detailed descriptions of what that will look like.

Warren's staffing has impressed me—from the perspective of policy, the perspective of organizing chops, and the perspective of implementation. She's building a team that will be ready to hit the ground running on Wednesday, November 4, whatever that day looks like.

And while Bernie's effectiveness in mobilizing mass support can't be denied, Warren has also been building a hell of a volunteer corps, in no small part by hiring a bunch of incredibly effective organizers. She understands the importance of the grass roots, as do her people.

Anyway, as @nelstamp notes, if you—like me—want to see Warren as the nominee, the time is now to pitch in and lend a hand: ! ElizabethWarren.com/call