The basic reproduction number (R0) is the average number of secondary infections generated by one infected person in a totally susceptible population #2019nCoV
The claim that "we are now faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen" and that the new coronavirus is 8x as infectious as SARS is completely untrue. Even if the R0 were 3.8 that would be nowhere near a record.
Here is some context w/ a range of R0s:
Moreover, R0 is not the only statistic that matters. Some diseases are extremely infectious but not very lethal; others are the inverse.
Infectiousness can change dramatically depending on the population in question and circumstances. #2019nCoV
It's estimated, for example, that control measures reduced the R0 of SARS from ~2.9 to 0.4. (This might be the source of the erroneously cited "modest" 0.49 "viral attack rate" for SARS in the viral thread)
None of this is to belittle what is happening. The outbreak in China is a genuine public health emergency.
But the essential data are still being collected and assessed. Sweeping and alarmist claims about unprecedented global threat are neither warranted nor helpful.
Following numerous critiques, the most inaccurate tweet in the original viral thread disappeared/was probably deleted without explanation or follow-up correction. For transparency and posterity, this is what it looked like.
The info in the pictured tweet is unequivocally wrong
Some people have asked why they should believe me rather than a Harvard epidemiologist.
This is not a matter of belief, nor pedigree. This is about facts, evidence, due diligence.
I have presented the facts and their sources so you can examine them for yourself.
I'd like to thank everyone who has been sharing my thread. You are helping to combat misinformation and alarmism. Some people think it is futile to try, but you are proving them wrong.
Critical thinking is a skill—a muscle. We have a collective responsibility to exercise it.
Here is one of the latest analyses of the new coronavirus, with an estimated R0 of 2.6
Remember, though: R0 is just one factor. It's still early, data are still coming in, and all the statistics are likely to keep changing imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…
A lot of people sharing this study, which estimates an R0 of 3.3 - 5.47 for the new coronavirus
This study was published on Jan 24. It doesn't use data beyond Jan 22. And it hasn't been peer-reviewed. It does not represent a definitive consensus biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
Remember: the estimated R0 for SARS ranged from 2 to 5 depending on the context (who.int/csr/sars/en/WH…). It's entirely possible the R0 for the new coronavirus will fall within or close to that range (they are related viruses).
But R0 is not the only factor to consider
Incoming reports suggest the new coronavirus has a variable incubation period (1 to 14 days) & may be contagious pre-symptoms. That could potentially make it harder to contain than SARS.
But we simply don't yet have enough data to accurately pin down the R0 or fatality rate.
New analysis, published Jan 26, reports avg incubation of 4.8 days and R0 of 2.9, which is consistent with earlier estimates of 2.6. Dr. @mugecevik says this is "the first detailed epidemic curve." Still working with early data, though
@mugecevik From same study: "2019-nCoV may have higher pandemic risk than SARS...implemented public-health efforts have significantly decreased pandemic risk....However, more rigorous control and prevention strategies and measures [needed] to contain further spread" biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
@mugecevik Here are two important examples of the many data collection and communication challenges that arise in the early stages of a crisis, why it's so important to have reliable information before making dramatic pronouncements, and why context and level of uncertainty are crucial:
@mugecevik Health minister Ma Xiaowei said the new coronavirus is contagious pre-symptoms; didn't explain further. This 1 piece of info could make a huge diff in planning & outcomes. But the CDC's Nancy Messonnier & other experts point out that direct evidence is lacking. Not yet certain.
@mugecevik Similarly, the confirmed number of cases globally is about 3,000 right now (vast majority in China). Expert estimates of additional cases in China range from an extra 1,000 to *hundreds of thousands*
@mugecevik Be advised: Social media has been flooded with misinformation about the coronavirus, including old, unrelated, & possibly fake videos. Many opportunists are capitalizing on this crisis for financial & political gain. Always investigate credibility: buzzfeednews.com/article/janely…
@mugecevik I've started a Public List of accounts to follow for updates on the new coronavirus: a mix of scientists, journalists, non-profits, and government agencies. I'll update as the situation develops. You can find it under my profile or subscribe via this link twitter.com/i/lists/122149…
@mugecevik@DavidQuammen The recent Twitter discourse about R0, science communication, and viral outbreaks—in multiple senses of the phrase—has inspired two new pieces in The Atlantic:
-Nearly 10,000 cases worldwide (vast majority in China); more than 200 deaths (all in China)
-WHO declares global health emergency (note: not synonymous with global pandemic)
-U.S. State Department advises against travel to China
-Illinois reports first case of human-human transmission in U.S.
-Increasing evidence of asymptomatic transmission, but not definitive
-Latest R0 estimates between 2 - 4, consistent w/ most estimates so far & comparable to SARS
No. More likely the new coronavirus will become another "mundane" cause of the common cold, or a seasonally recurring infection similar to the flu in severity
🌍🧵 I'd like to tell you a story about a very special rock: A rock that broiled, gushed, and bloomed; that learned to spin sunlight into substance—a rock that came to life and became our cosmic oasis—a miraculous green wet fiery clamorous gorgeous living rock we call Earth
~4 billion years ago, Earth was unrecognizable: the sky was likely orange and hazy; the nascent ocean shallow; no continents, only scattered volcanic islands; little to no green.
Life changed everything. Many of Earth's defining features came from, or evolved with, life.
Microbes, the smallest & earliest organisms to emerge, were responsible for some of the most profound changes.
Photosynthetic cyanobacteria (and, later, algae and land plants) oxygenated Earth's oceans & atmosphere, revolutionizing the planet's chemistry
For @TheAtlantic I wrote about how climate change is warping the seasons, why it's important to remember that the 'Four Seasons' have never been standard/universal, and how much we can adapt our concept of the seasons on a rapidly changing planet theatlantic.com/science/archiv…
Those of us who grew up in the temperate midlatitudes often learn about only one seasonal cycle—Winter, Spring, Summer, Fall—and assume it applies just about everywhere. But the experience & perception of the seasons vary greatly by place, time, & culture
The Larrakia people of northern Australia, for ex, have a particularly diverse seasonal vocabulary, incl: Balnba (early rains), Mayilema (“speargrass, goose egg, and knock ’em down” season), Dinidjanggama (heavy-dew time) & Gurrulwa guligi (big-wind time) csiro.au/en/research/in…
Lately I've been learning how to make simple digital art in various styles with an iPad and stylus. I made these by following online tutorials (links in thread)
I'm astonished by the power of the Procreate app, and by the generosity of all the creators sharing their expertise
The American dipper (Cinclus mexicanus), aka water ouzel, is North America's only truly aquatic songbird—the "hummingbird of blooming waters" as Muir wrote
Dippers flit about rocky streams, diving and swimming through the currents to feed on aquatic larvae and tiny tadpoles/fish
American dippers are named for their habit of rhythmically bobbing when perched
But why do they dip?
Theories incl: blending in w/ turbulent water as camouflage; enhanced scoping of underwater prey; visual communication in noisy environment
📹@spqchan
Cornell Lab describes the dipper's burbling song as "evocative of the rushing whitewater streams this species calls home in western North and Central America"
I recently had the opportunity to go night snorkeling with reef manta rays off the coast of Hawai’i. A thrilling experience with amazing creatures. They eat plankton and somersault like this to maximize the amount of food they funnel into their mouths from a given area
We also saw a rippling, bristling fireworm (which you definitely don’t want to touch)
Manta ray night snorkeling/diving tours began several decades ago when people realized lights from nearby hotels attracted photosynthetic plankton, which in turn drew rays. Today,snorkeling tours use modified floating boards with lights, whereas divers use lights on the seafloor
Tree ferns, which have existed for more than 300 million years and were some of the first plants to evolve tree-like forms, can also grow more than 60 feet tall and live for centuries
A Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) is a type of yucca, a grass-like member of the Asparagus family, that can reportedly reach heights of 70+ feet, circumferences of 9+ feet, and live close to 1,000 years