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Think someone is lying to you?

First check to see if they bothered to add any variability whatsoever in the model they are using to supposedly report actual numbers from a complex system.

#coronavirus
The mortality rate they want you to report is the - 0 day rate: Today's Confirmed Death total minus Today's Confirmed Case total.

This has not varied outside of 1/10th of 1% in the last 5 prints.

#coronavirus
But even a minor adjustment of a few days in the mortality rate paints an entirely different picture

#coronavirus

The Mainland China data from the last 5-6 prints:

1. Can be modeled essentially perfectly
2. Corresponds exactly to a change in the reported mortality rate starting on Jan. 27
3. That reported mortality rate has been lowered to seek 2.20% on a -0Day basis

#coronavirus
Closer look at mortality rates calculated at -0, -3, -5, -7 Days.

Since the virus takes between 7-10 Days to kill people, achieving steady state in the -0 Day mortality rate is only possible if a dramatic reduction in mortality occurred.

#coronavirus
Feb. 2 Mainland China #coronavirus:

17,205 Cases, 361 Deaths

Since the data being reported is essentially perfect, we predicted within 129 cases (0.75%) and 7 deaths (1.9%).
Thus, the Mortality Rate calculated on a -0 Day basis is being maintained within 1/10th of 1% from 2.10%
If I were a Chinese propagandist tasked with maintaining a narrative the data suggests was adopted 7 days ago, I'd post these #coronavirus results for Mainland China tonight:

Cases: 20,346 (+3,141)
Deaths: 427 (+66)

Hopefully I'm wrong.
This is a notable statement for the #coronavirus narrative coming from China, so adding it to this thread for reference

Did @evdefender crack the underlying #coronavirus reporting function?

Time will tell.
You no longer need to be dead to receive a complimentary cremation.

#coronavirus
" at the moment "

#coronavirus
Updated with today's Mainland China "data". Note that the R^2 for the last 4 data points from the mode... er, um actual contracted cases rounds to 1.0000.

Will post what tomorrow's numbers should be if they maintain narrative.

#coronavirus
A finer point on what is happening:

China is a country of 1.4 Billion with 10s of Millions in lockdown in cities & entire regions. Schools are closed for months; work stoppages for weeks.

China posts #coronavirus #s daily for at least 31 provincial divisions in the Mainland.
The #coronavirus expansion is extremely complex with many moving parts... even including mandatory cremations.

Yet, I have been able to predict their reporting within an extremely narrow band since early in the outbreak expansion (around 4500 cases / 100 deaths).
Thread became disconnected and a few corrections were made, so I will re-attach today's #coronavirus numbers.

Apologies for the confusion for those following along.
If I were a Chinese propagandist tasked with maintaining a narrative the data suggests was adopted 8 days ago, I'd post these #coronavirus results for Mainland China tonight:

Cases: 24,029 (+3,589)
Deaths: 500 (+75)

Hopefully I'm wrong this time
Last 8 points fit a quadratic with an R^2 of ~0.9999.

Let's ignore a scenario where China would be over-reporting the #coronavirus numbers.

If the reports were indeed from a model and the actuals were higher... the game is to let the quadratic run until it outpaces the actuals.
The problem with taking this approach (obviously) in the early phase of an exponential system occurs if your corrective actions aren't effective enough to get you onto the other side of the model before you are found out.

Changes in trend become obvious & alarming.

#coronavirus
Look closer at the Hubei Province (1 of 31) data. You can make out the subtle changes in the reporting model a little more clearly.

It should therefore be more difficult to predict. I will try anyway - Feb 4:

Cases: 16,064 (+2,542)
Deaths: 492 (+78)

#coronavirus
Feb 4: Hubei Province

Cases: 16,678 (+3156) A spike in the model
Deaths: 479 (+65) A drop in "-0" day mortality rate

We should have therefore under-predicted the cases for the Mainland, data drops in 90min

#coronavirus
A bit above trend (+24%) in new cases reported in Hubei shows an acceleration, which I think marks an adjustment in the model. This should mean we've under-predicted the Mainland cases.

#coronavirus
Feb. 4 Mainland China #coronavirus:

24,324 Cases, 490 Deaths

Subtle shift in narrative today seems to be a lift in the cases reported with an attempt to seek 2.0% on the mortality rate calculated using day for day numbers.

Fortunately, my biggest miss yet (295 cases) proves I'm not running propaganda for China.

Unfortunately, reported cases in the mainland have accelerated a bit which increases numbers for the coming days.

Will post updated predictions for tomorrow.

#coronavirus
Ahem... The narrative.

#coronavirus
The logic driving the narrative behind #coronavirus reporting from Mainland China follows a simple grift.

First: prioritize headline #s, which to them is clearly the mortality rate calculated on a day/day ('-0 day') basis.

Nearly pinned for 8 days (+20,000 cases) seeking 2.0%
From the Feb. 4 data, Hubei (1/31 regions) had 69% of "confirmed" Mainland #coronavirus cases.

Yet, Hubei model adjusts more than the full Mainland: harder prediction. 🤔

I'd post these for Hubei tonight to maintain narrative:

Cases: 20,218 (+3540)
Deaths: 562 (+83)
Editor's Note:

I'm being optimistic for Feb 5 Hubei #coronavirus deaths. Application of yesterday's Hubei day/day mortality rate of 2.87% would lead to a prediction of 581 deaths (+102) vs. the 562 (+83) above.

I believe the goal of the narrative is to work this % down.
Tonight's Mainland #CoronaVirus numbers posted 11 hours before the release if I were in charge of maintaining the narrative and leaning on the optimistic side as stated previously.

Let's hope I'm high this time.

Cases: 28,678 (+4,354)
Deaths: 578 (+88)
I've reached propaganda saturation levels I didn't know were even achievable & this is but a narrow glimpse over the past 3 hrs.

Between $tsla & #coronavirus, I must now consider the possibility we are in a simulation meant to target me specifically.

Yet somehow... R^2 = 1.0000
We finally overshot the Hubei #CoronaVirus predictions by a bit:

Feb. 5 Hubei Province

Cases: 19,665 (+2987)
Deaths: 549 (+70)

This marks the narrative's first reported decrease in daily acceleration.

Feb. 5 Mainland China #CoronaVirus: A New Narrative!

Cases: 28,018 (+3694)
Deaths: 563 (+73)

The Good?:
Finally overshot a bit as it's the 1st time new cases less than previous day!

The Bad?:
It's all a goal seek on (-0Day) Mortality = 2.01%

A major observation here is the mortality rate calculated on a day/day or (-0 Day) basis, which is wound very tightly around 2.01% regardless of fit on # of cases.

It has also been very steady with a slight decline seeking 2.0% since the narrative change Jan 27.

#coronavirus
Tomorrow is Important:

Today marks the 1st day in the last 10 where I can't simply explain the point by a pre-determined quadratic.

It is therefore their 1st attempt at introducing some variability into the model or a shift in the narrative to begin a rollover.

#coronavirus
Welcome to the Feb. 6 2020 #CoronaVirus Narrative Watch.

Next few days are important and a little tricky as I believe the narrative needs to show a rollover after so much extreme intervention

Whatever the # of cases reported (actual or not), they should maintain the CFR at 2.0%
Today I've adjusted the curve fits back to Jan.27, which I believes marks a notable point in the data suggesting it's driven by an underlying model.

I'd post these for Hubei tonight to stay high of what may be the new narrative:

Cases: 23,108 (+3443)
Deaths: 631 (+82)
Feb 6 2020 Mainland China #CoronaVirus Predictions:

Similar to Hubei: I'm using a curve regressing to 0.9999 on the last 10 prints (Jan.27) while estimating that a narrative shift will make these high.

Cases: 32,180 (+4,162)
Deaths: 647 (+84)

Report in ~10.5 hrs.
Narrative Alert.
Midday Editor's Note:

This has been one of the highest volume propaganda days I've seen during #coronavirus and I'm having trouble finding anything to suggest the numbers behind the model are valid.

Leaving the numbers since we're predicting narrative and not actual anyway.
Many want to attribute the data to a limiting function such as #coronavirus test capability coming online.

True that this should be a non-zero contributor to the data set. It would also mean that 'confirmed' cases are saturated and would accelerate as capability came online.
The number of reported new cases daily to take a closer look at this. This is also why I've noted the next few days are pretty important.
Since we've got 10 well formed data points, I plotted mainland #coronavirus case levels predicted by various polynomials through Monday as an experiment (since it may not be an actual system). Today's expectation is really tight across the fits.
🚨 Narrative Alert.

If the 'actuals' are really above the 'reported' that seems to be modeled, catching up will be relatively apparent in the model now.
I vote we skip today's numbers...
I described yesterday as a turning point in #CoronaVirus narrative regardless of news.

Feb. 6 Hubei Province

Cases: 22,112 (+2447)
Deaths: 619 (+69)

This is 540 fewer cases than they posted yesterday and marks a definitive turn from trend.

Hubei Province better illustrated in the daily 'reported' 'confirmed' new #coronavirus cases.

A decisive enough deviation from tightly regressed trend that it'd be pretty cruel if it were to shoot up.

Also surprising that propaganda is opposite & they aren't chest beating.
Unless cases/deaths have increased outside of Hubei, we should have overpredicted the CCP numbers for the Mainland as well.

If this continues, then we would have marked a change in trend starting yesterday that the CCP will start using to declare "mission accomplished"
No commentary from them on Hubei yet, although there should be given the changes I've flagged above.
Feb. 6 Mainland China #CoronaVirus:

Cases: 31,161 (+3143)
Deaths: 636 (+74)

The rollover shown in the Hubei data carries over to Mainland China and confirms the change in narrative that I discussed yesterday.

A very minor lift in the CFR calculated on a 0day basis to 2.04%. Expect 2.0% mortality to continue to be the main headline along with a potential reversal in increase of new cases.

#coronavirus
# of reported new #coronavirus cases 'confirmed' per day for Mainland China

Note the narrative change that began yesterday. CCP is under heavy financial pressure to restore things to order.

I'd watch the next few prints closely to see if we're simply on a new predictable trend
No spiking of the football yet, but brace yourself for 'mission accomplished'

Editor's Note:

I study fraud. I'm good at it. The latest build of the chart below isn't some run away quadratic or doomsday exponential for #coronavirus intended to stoke fear.

I simply unpack data to see if points are more likely to be real or engineered.
China's actions really don't square with the numbers shown below. I haven't been trying to predict the entire data set, which may be logistic, or forecast months away

A change occurred Jan.27 to Feb.4 in which the points fit a very tight quadratic predictable in a narrow band
You're free to believe whatever you want. I re-engineer narratives. Based on the reported data, a trend change occurred yesterday and we'll study the logistic aspect.

Based on the news reports? Well, it's hard to square it.

#coronavirus
Glimpse at the new #CoronaVirus narrative coming from the CCP regarding control measure effectiveness I told you was coming when the Feb 5 data dropped.

Feb. 7 Hubei Province #CoronaVirus Predictions:

Cases: 24,297 (+2185)
Deaths: 680 (+61)

Hard to imagine seeing a reversal in the new narrative, so I'd post results similar to these tonight for Hubei.
Feb. 7 Mainland China #CoronaVirus Predictions:

Cases: 34,022 (+2861)
Deaths: 696 (+59)

Similarly, am expecting to see them report more confirmation on the new Mainland trend. This is pretty vital to get things back to normal after the extreme containment measures.
As usual, I'd keep an eye on the mortality rate being reported, which has been a very consistent part of the #coronavirus narrative since the Jan 27/28 reporting.
As long as you aren't chained in your home, you are free to believe whatever you want.

By necessity, there must be a roll off. Should it be this well behaved? Are the magnitudes of the reported numbers correct?

You'll find experts arguing both sides.

No commentary, I just find the timing interesting for reference.
Missed one. Will Feb. 7 be "CV Day"
In this dumb chart I try to illustrate the number of 'confirmed' #coronavirus cases vs. the estimated number of people in lockdown.

It's about 0.00779%

🚨🚨NARRATIVE ALERT 🚨🚨

" No Inflection Point in Sight "
CCP hedge: 3 hrs and 25 min apart
Meet my friend "Mild".

Mild allows you to spike the number of 'confirmed' cases while playing with the to date fixed mortality rate in order to help set the coming phase of the #coronavirus narrative.
Here is another dumb chart:

Current estimate for percentage of humans on all of planet Earth in lock down for #CoronaVirus?

6.44 %

<ps: buy stonks>
Feb. 7 Hubei Province #CoronaVirus:

Cases: 24,953 (+2841)
Deaths: 699 (+80)

We had 10 prints of essentially perfect data for case expansion followed by two consistent days of slowdown, now a bit up.

I've been noting the split narrative today.

If I had to guess, I'd bet the meeting to discuss the narrative occurs in this window.

#coronavirus
Feb. 7 Mainland China #CoronaVirus:

Cases: 34,568 (+3407)
Deaths: 722 (+85)

The Bad:
Spike in cases/deaths from Feb. 6 means new narrative in question & I underpredicted.

The Good:
1st ripple adds variance, but that's bad also since it's up

Daily 'reported' new cases & mortality rates (-0 to -7 days) for the Mainland. Not suggesting 7 days, just not plotting further here.

You can see the ripple with yesterday's rise, but that didn't get in the way of the '-0' CFR of maintaining 2.1% +/- 0.1% for 12 days.
In my experience studying instances where >6% of the human species is in lock down to prevent the spread of a virus that has infected ~35,000...

It's important to keep it short. Regardless of the real numbers, we had hoped the reported trend yesterday would hold.

#coronavirus
A look at that "Headline" fatality rate.

Not my best chart, but face it: most humans (save you) won't get it anyway.

Note the virus sought out 2% on the Jan 27/28 change I noted & never looked back. A critical 'headline' #coronavirus # that even comes with it's own red flag 🇨🇳
If you believe the #coronavirus numbers, the level of overreaction cannot be expressed in words.

Infected: 34,568
Population: 1,437,156,454

% Infected: 0.002405%

% of ALL HUMANS IN LOCK DOWN?:

> 6%

🚨🚨 NARRATIVE ALERT 🚨🚨

Brace yourselves.

CCP taking cues from other master gaslighters and <frauds who stare at floorboards where bodies are buried>

#coronavirus

Last CCP tweet set me off. I find it reckless & think it's important to illustrate their point.

They don't like us calling out the discrepancy between the response & the reported #coronavirus numbers.

Yet they quote 16.3. Here is what that looks like applied to their data.
I'm not suggesting the 16.3x is accurate. I'm pointing out they specifically referenced it re: H1N1.

Observations:
- It's an admission there is a multiple.
- Their response indicates there is a multiple.

- US response/preparation is not inline with a multiple.

#CoronaVirus
Apologies, the intern coughed on me and walked out earlier.

Corrected legend (deaths x 16.3) including the fixed #coronavirus mortality rate
Updated legend on chart illustrating the 16.3 multiple on actual vs. reported the CCP referenced for H1N1

Again: not suggesting these numbers are accurate, but pointing out their recognition of a multiple on reported vs. actual.

#coronavirus
And this to make what I'm showing painfully clear:

#coronavirus
Updating title to clarify. We're talking about case fatality rate, CFR, and showing how it presents when calculated as the data comes in with various lags.

It's pinned at ~2% for 12 prints.

#coronavirus
Interesting that CCP keeps going on today about H1N1 and complaining about travel restrictions given the widespread lockdowns for #coronavirus they are doing on their own citiziens.

Feb. 8 Hubei Province #CoronaVirus:

Cases: 27,100 (+2147)
Deaths: 780 (+81)

We flagged the downward trend marking a new narrative on Feb. 5, followed up by a CCP note.

That looked in question on yesterday's spike.

Today's point backs up the downtrend in growth.
Let's check the fatality rate calculated right now; after today's Hubei Province but before the rest of the Mainland.

Currently:

Cases: 36,757
Deaths: 804

It's a rise to 2.19% on the Hubei addition. I'm curious what the Mainland additions do to it. #coronavirus
Playing with the numbers ahead of that print: you'd have to show an additional 1500 new cases in the Mainland outside of Hubei without any additional deaths to pull it back to 2.1%

So, we should see a rise above 2.15% unless cases outside Hubei are on a notable rise.
Feb. 8 Mainland China #CoronaVirus:

Cases: 37,198 (+2630)
Deaths: 811 (+89)

Highest number of daily deaths yet, but a continuation of the slowdown in additional confirmed cases with the exception of yesterday's outlier.
Here are the 'confirmed' daily new #coronavirus cases and deaths for Mainland China.

Note the turnaround in additional cases on Feb.5 I've been going on about, which the CCP can/will begin using to highlight effectiveness of the dramatic measures we've seen.
Here are the updated fatality rates for Feb.8 Mainland China #CoronaVirus.

Note the slight lift in the CFR calculated on a -0day basis due to slightly higher deaths, but it remains 2.1% +/- 0.1% for the past 12 days.
Let's agree the Chinese Mainland #CoronaVirus numbers:

- Do not capture 0% of cases
- Do not capture 100% of cases

Inaccuracy isn't always fraud. So we look for signs of it.
I can't think of a better illustration than this uncannily timed one offered by @elonmusk.

What he views as cute nearly perfectly describes the major red flag of Gaslighting present in many major frauds.

The penciled in "Make Counter-Claims" is the cherry on top.

#coronavirus
So we study numbers, we study narratives, we look for signs someone is trying to gaslight you

Updated chart with multiple they offered for H1N1 in the propaganda

Not being alarmist, not claiming accurate, just bracketing with their own narrative

#CoronaVirus (ps: note the 👍)
Here are the updated fatality rates along with the cumulative 'confirmed' cases for the Mainland.

For example, there were ~30,000 fewer confirmed cases 10 days ago.

#coronavirus
🚨 This belongs in the main thread:

CCP now paying you to turn yourself in or report people with fever for #justtheflu

#coronavirus
There's that narrative driving toward a re-opening

Feb. 9 Hubei Province #CoronaVirus:

Cases: 29,631 (+2531)
Deaths: 871 (+91)

Downtrend in new cases remains in effect (with new and improved steady variance!)
Similar to yesterday, I'll show the Mainland totals after Hubei, but before rest of Mainland.

Cases: 39,752
Deaths: 902

<ps: of course the fatality rate hasn't changed>

#coronavirus
Feb. 9 Mainland China #CoronaVirus:

Cases: 40,171 (+2973)
Deaths: 908 (+97)

Sadly, the most daily deaths 'reported' yet.

Notably, the downward trend that I noted starting on Feb.5 new cases seems to persist with an interesting consistency to the daily variance.
Here are the 'reported' new cases and new deaths daily for Mainland China #coronavirus as of Feb.9
Here are the calculated fatality rates and cumulative new cases for Mainland China #coronavirus as of Feb.9

You don't need to know the number of deaths China has reported daily. You just need to multiply the cases by 2.2% since CoV is good with math.
Here are Mainland China #CoronaVirus numbers with the H1N1 multiple CCP so kindly offered up in their propaganda for bracketing.

I've already gone on about what this is, so I'll spare you the continued disclaimers.
This is a very notable exchange that occurred today on top of all the other propaganda I've been flagging.

#CoronaVirus
This is a very notable admission from the @WHO director that occurred on top of all the propaganda today.

If it isn't #justtheflu, @DrTedros doesn't need to outrun #coronavirus.

He just needs to outrun you.
@WHO @DrTedros Another major red flag we watch for in frauds when the key Headline metrics used to execute critical decisions or to report severity of events are changed.

Unsurprising then that CCP is changing the definition of what a 'confirmed' #coronavirus case is.

@WHO @DrTedros Feb. 10 Hubei Province #CoronaVirus Predictions:

Cases: 31,625 (+1994)
Deaths: 968 (+97)

Here are Hubei predictions that should be entirely incorrect today.
Feb. 10 Mainland China #CoronaVirus Predictions:

Cases: 42,569 (+2398)
Deaths: 1011 (+104)

Similarly there is no way these mainland predictions can be correct, but I can't resist a pattern.

Sadly, you should see headlines for 'reported' deaths crossing the 1,000 mark.
Feb. 10 Hubei Province #CoronaVirus:

Cases: 31,728 (+2097)
Deaths: 974 (+103)

Look at that. A pattern. Too bad I wasn't predicting the real numbers.

Feb. 10 Mainland China #CoronaVirus:

Cases: 42,638 (+2467) Pred: 42,569
Deaths: 1016 (+108) Pred: 1,011

My predictions were off by 69 cases and 5 deaths.

Not bad for a country of 1.4 Billion with 6% of ALL HUMANS in lockdown.

Here are the updated fatality rates with the total "confirmed" #CoronaVirus cases reported for Mainland China

I didn't need to predict the headline fatality rate though, did I? It's been fixed within 0.1 of 2.1% for 14 prints.
Here's an update on that multiple they offered up while gaslighting.

Again, not to alarm or claim accurate. They acknowledged a multiple. 1/16.3 would mean reported at 6.1% of actual.

#coronavirus
Updated Mainland #CoronaVirus Fatality Rate chart. There is a correction to the last 2 (Feb.9/Feb.10) rates calculated at -0 Days.

Note the subtle rise now to 2.38% as acceleration in deaths outpaces new cases. It's a sad #. The behavior is expected, not sure abt magnitude.
There's the Feb.5 turn we noted immediately when the #coronavirus narrative changed.
The #coronavirus inflection point cannot be predicted, but it will occur in 4 days anyway.
I believe the 'inflection' releases we keep seeing are just staging for the narrative I expect to reach headlines such as:

" Official data suggests #coronavirus peaked in China on Feb. 4 " etc...

But this doesn't square with new Beijing / Shanghai / etc. lockdowns, so we'll see
Hey! Look at that. The well behaved #CoronaVirus peaked the day after a Feb.3 standing committee meeting in which Xi discussed the virus....

... allowing me to predict yesterday's new cases within 2.7%

h/t @me01813291

reuters.com/article/us-chi…
@me01813291 #Opinion: You and I should chat about your numbers.

#coronavirus
@me01813291 It's Feb.11. 1st, a pattern in a pattern. Two best #CoronaVirus predictions were on Mondays (more later)

Feb.3 Actual | Pred.
Cases: 20,438 | 20,346
Deaths: 425 | 427

Feb.10 Actual | Pred.
Cases: 42,638 | 42,469
Deaths: 1,016 | 1,011
@me01813291 Feb. 11 Hubei Province #CoronaVirus Predictions:

Cases: 33,696 (+1968)
Deaths: 1,083 (+109)

These Hubei predictions should be incorrect. Partially because it's Tuesday... which I'll go into later.
Feb. 11 Mainland China #CoronaVirus Predictions:

Cases: 44,910 (+2272)
Deaths: 1,132 (+116)

Likewise, these Mainland predictions should be off. We'll see if my theory on it being 'new narrative' day holds.
Minor correction from 2 tweets up noting two best #CoronaVirus predictions were on Mondays (more later)

Feb.3 Actual | Pred.
Cases: 20,438 | 20,346
Deaths: 425 | 427

Feb.10 Actual | Pred.
Cases: 42,638 | 42,569
Deaths: 1,016 | 1,011
Feb. 11 Hubei Province #CoronaVirus:

Cases: 33,366 (+1638)
Deaths: 1,068 (+94)

Overshot by 330 cases / 15 deaths. I had a feeling meetings yesterday would impact trend. If right, this would be the 4th phase of the data.

If Hubei over-prediction doesn't carry into the Mainland set, we'll have something else to talk about.

But it should mean that the Mainland prediction of +2272 is high.

A few of you nerds will appreciate the convergence at that number from a few diff. approaches:

#coronavirus
Feb. 11 Mainland China #CoronaVirus:

Cases: 44,653 (+2015)
Deaths: 1,113 (+97)

So my +330 for Hubei turned into +257 for the full Mainland. Still close, but not within <3% of new daily cases like past 2 Mondays.

Note: They released 3+ hrs late.

Here are updated #CoronaVirus fatality rates calculated for Mainland China on Feb.11

I mentioned possibility of new phase in data (narrative). The data shows a decrease from yesterday in # of new 'reported' deaths.

This affects the CFR (-0), which is slightly higher: 2.49%
There's that headline I've been going on about.

Peak on Feb.4 following Xi's meeting on Feb.3

#coronavirus
The drumbeat builds on the Feb.4 #coronavirus narrative that we've been flagging since Feb.5.

This fix went in at the Xi standing committee meeting on Feb.3

Well this isn't going to look good plotted.

#coronavirus
permit me a moment in the crazy thread...

I'VE BEEN

<takes breath>

TELLING EVERYONE

<takes breath>

THE NUMBERS WERE

<takes breath>

FRAUDULENT
Feb. 11 Hubei Province #CoronaVirus:

Cases: 48,206 (+14840)
Deaths: 1,310 (+242)

That's a +44.5% increase in total cases from ... yesterday.

and a +22.7% increase in deaths from ... yesterday.

The decree Xi issued the virus on Feb.3 has sadly failed.
Feb. 12 Hubei Province #CoronaVirus:

Cases: 48,206 (+14840)
Deaths: 1,310 (+242)

That's a +44.5% increase in total cases from ... yesterday.

and a +22.7% increase in deaths from ... yesterday.

The decree Xi issued the virus on Feb.3 has sadly failed.

(edit: Feb.12)
The 'reported' fatality rates with the Feb.12 Hubei shock included ahead of the Mainland #coronavirus report, which is late.

You can't shake this thing off of 2.2% it seems.
Still no report.

The narrative across Mainland China that was installed on Feb.4 after Xi Feb.3 meeting was clearly that containment efforts were effective.

A spread across the Mainland will change things considerably.

#coronavirus

The original post in this thread was on Feb.2, where I noted a possibility the reported data was modeled from Jan.27 to Feb.1.

Here is that model (forecasted 11 days) against 'reported' 'confirmed' cases through Feb.12.

#coronavirus
Feb. 12 Mainland China #CoronaVirus:

Cases: 59,805 (+15,152)
Deaths: 1,365 (+252)

+33.9% increase in total cases from ... yesterday.

+22.6% increase in deaths from ... yesterday.

The decree Xi issued the virus on Feb.3 has sadly failed.

(report >7hrs late)
Feb. 12 Mainland China #CoronaVirus:

Updated #COVID19 fatality rates and total ""reported"" cases after a nearly 8 hr delayed report.

I noted the 2.2% early on... It's still there.
Feb. 12 Mainland China #CoronaVirus:

Here is a comparison of the model I posted on Feb.2 (1st post in thread, through Feb.1 data) against what was officially reported.

Feb.12 prediction (11days in advance):
58,261

Feb.12 "reported"
59,805

Low by 2.58%

#COVID19
Heads up on narrative as CCP tries to get its money's worth.

Rapid rise in 'confirmed' cases will lead to "more convenient treatment" and "lower the fatality rate".
"Severely" under reporting means fraud.

But you shouldn't be hearing about it from administration officials today, Feb.13 2020, because signs of fraud in the data set have been evident all along.

#coronavirus

Feb. 13 Hubei Province #CoronaVirus:

Cases: 51,986 (+4,826 on day)
Deaths: 1,426 (+116)

Total cases reduced by 1043.

This wipes out the recovery phase posted from Feb.4 to Feb11. and reverts to the original quadratic growth model I posted on Feb.2
When I say 'revert', I don't mean 'appears to revert' or 'may revert'.

I mean that the current mainland is within 190 cases or 0.3% of the model I posted 12 days ago.

We await the remainder of Mainland, 8 hrs late yesterday, which hasn't adopted same methodology

#coronavirus
I can only imagine the heads rolling in upr CCP at this very moment as they decide what #s to post.

Adjusting 'methodology' for rest of Mainland will spike... Big.

I've noted multiple narrative phases. They've unwound the recovery that started Feb.4.

Here are the updated Feb.13 fatality rates for the Mainland, which includes Feb.13 Hubei, but prior to the remainder of the Mainland (late again)

#coronavirus
Feb.13 Mainland China #CoronaVirus:

267 cases in addition to Hubei, some confusion on death total (will update)

Prediction (12 days in advance):
63,774

"Reported"
63,851

Low by 77 cases. That is 0.12%.

The data is fraudulent. China is hiding something about the Mainland.
Feb.13 Mainland China #CoronaVirus:

Cases: 63,851 (+5,090)
Deaths: 1,380 (+116)

They've messed with both totals by removing 1,043 cases and 108 deaths. I've distributed those changes to yesterday for the incremental illustration.
Feb.13 Mainland China #CoronaVirus:

Updated fatality rates & cumulative cases.

Removing the 'extra' deaths restores the wayward -0 Day CFR to... you guessed it: 2.1% +/- 0.1%
Feb.13 Mainland China #CoronaVirus:

Description of the phases I've referred to in the data.

- Phase 1 reported Feb.2
- Phase 2 flagged on Feb.5 (followed Xi Feb. 3 mtg)
- Phase 3 began Feb.12

Feb.13 is 77 cases (0.12%) from model I proposed 12 days ago... Reversion to Growth.
Feb. 14 Hubei Province #CoronaVirus:

Cases: 54,406 (+2,420)
Deaths: 1,457 (+139)

#covid19
Feb. 14 Mainland China #CoronaVirus:

Cases: 66,492 (+2,641)
Deaths: 1,523 (+143)

As # in lock-down increase across the nation and wartime measures increase in Hubei, China maintains the narrative that new cases are improving.

#covid19
Feb. 14 Mainland China #CoronaVirus:

Fatality rates and cumulative cases for Mainland China.

#COVID19
Feb. 14 Mainland China #CoronaVirus:

Narrative control remains as China continues to report 'confirmed' case improvement ahead of a spike outside of Hubei while becoming more militant.

Current effort is another "recovery narrative" inside of what I've called Phase 3.

#covid19
Feb. 15 #CoronaVirus 0430 est:

Cases Worldwide: 67,182
Mainland China: 66,493
International: 689

Fatalities: 1,526

#covid19
On early Feb. 15, 41.4% of the International #CoronaVirus cases outside of Mainland China are on this one ship.

#covid19
It's difficult to express the scale of the disconnect in the 'reported' Mainland China 'confirmed' case numbers.

#coronavirus #covid19
Feb. 15 #CoronaVirus 1000 est:

Cases Worldwide: 67,191
Mainland China: 66,496
International: 695

Fatalities: 1,527

#covid19
Better illustration of point I've made regarding phases of #coronavirus outbreak & how I've been able to accurately predict China's reports at various points.

This is new 'confirmed' Mainland cases excluding Hubei Before and After Xi's Feb. 3 Standing Committee Mtg.

#covid19
Ran out of characters to add commentary...

But, do I really need to explain what is going on here?

#coronavirus #covid19
Feb. 15 Hubei Province #CoronaVirus:

Cases: 56,249 (+1,843)
Deaths: 1,596 (+139)

Underneath the spike for clinically diagnosed on Feb.12, you will still see the Xi magic to which the virus responded immediately with a downward trend following the Feb.3 meeting.
I may as well just write their propaganda for them at this point. Surprised they'd quote the 14,840 as a single day figure though.

#coronavirus
Feb. 15 Mainland China #CoronaVirus:

Cases: 68,500 (+2,009)
Deaths: 1,665 (+42)

They are allowing the fatality rate (-0day) to creep up again slightly. Maybe they will resurrect a few tomorrow once more.

#covid19
Feb. 15 Mainland China #CoronaVirus:

Here is one chart you should be sharing.

Xi cured #covid19 immediately following one meeting on Feb. 3 2020. It could be the single greatest feat in human history worthy of the Nobel.

Or it could be fraud.
Feb. 15 #CoronaVirus 2020 est:

Cases Worldwide: 69,197
Mainland China: 68,500 "confirmed"
International: 697

Fatalities: 1,665

There is a predictable "recovery" happening in what I've called Phase 3... for now.

#covid19
Feb. 15 #CoronaVirus 2120 est:

Cases Worldwide: 69,268
Mainland China: 68,500 "confirmed"
International: 768

Fatalities: 1,665

+137 on the Diamond Princess today, 27% increase in cases outside of China

#covid19
Feb. 16 #CoronaVirus 0530 est:

Cases Worldwide: 69,282
Mainland China: 68,507 "confirmed"
International: 775

Fatalities: 1,669

#covid19
Feb. 16 #CoronaVirus 1800 est:

Cases Worldwide: 71,223
Mainland China: 70,442 "confirmed"
International: 781

Fatalities: 1,770

Hubei Province: +1933 Cases, +100 Deaths

#covid19
Feb. 16 #CoronaVirus 2030 est:

Cases Worldwide: 71,330
Mainland China: 70,548 "confirmed"
International: 782

Fatalities: 1,775

Hubei Province: +1933 Cases, +100 Deaths
Mainland: + 115 Cases, + 5 Deaths

#covid19
Feb. 16 #CoronaVirus:

Updated fatality rate chart which is getting a bit busy.

Also interesting, 2048 Mainland 'confirmed' new cases today vs. an estimated ~760 million in some kind of lockdown:

0.000269% of people impacted by a lockdown reportedly became infected
Adding to thread for posterity:

Feb. 16 Mainland new cases predicted exactly at +115

Feb. 17 #CoronaVirus 0230 est:

Cases Worldwide: 71,351
Mainland China: 70,552 "confirmed"
International: 799

Fatalities: 1,775

14 more Americans from Diamond Princess test positive for #covid19
Feb. 17 #CoronaVirus 0235 est:

Cases Worldwide: 71,355
Mainland China: 70,552 "confirmed"
International: 803

Fatalities: 1,775

Japan adds 4 more (+6 new) in addition to 14 more Americans from Diamond Princess #covid19
I made one for those more artistically inclined... an @evdefender 2020 original.

#coronavirus #covid19
Feb. 17 Diamond Princess #CoronaVirus 0530 est:

47% of passengers tested

26% of passengers tested have #covid19

12% of all passengers have #covid19

4% of passengers with #covid19 are seriously ill.
Feb. 17 #CoronaVirus 0550 est:

Cases Worldwide: 71,440
Mainland China: 70,552 "confirmed"
International: 888

Fatalities: 1,775

Total cases excluding China at 888 past China on Jan.23 (23 days ago) when Wuhan (10m) was locked down

#covid19
Xi commanded #coronavirus to stop spreading across Mainland China in 2 weeks at the Feb. 3 meeting.

This means we can estimate the # for "Xi's Miracle" again.

You basically just need to decide how you want to split the number 115 into roughly 2 parts.

Feb. 17 #CoronaVirus 0920 est:

Cases Worldwide: 71,445
Mainland China: 70,552 "confirmed"
International: 893

Fatalities: 1,775

+2 Taiwan, +2 Singapore, +1 Japan

#covid19
A look at the new 'confirmed' cases in both Hubei Province and excluding Hubei across Mainland China.

The Hubei Feb.12 'clinically diagnosed' spike sits inside of the downtrend that began as #covid19 inflected as instructed at the Feb.3 meeting.
It's getting to that time of the week where we need to think about advising Xi on the #s.

Mainland #coronavirus growth is driving to 0 since he commanded it in the Feb.3 mtg.

But it doesn't include clinically diagnosed, which was used to spike Hubei #covid19 by ~15k on Feb.12.
Yesterday's +115 cases for Mainland China is less than the cruise ship where 26% of tested passengers have #covid19: a stunning disconnect by scale.

Adding 'clinical' cases selectively would help adjust up in areas where simply not testing or hiding cases got away from you.
I'm finding it unlikely Xi would spike a Mainland wide adjustment for clinical cases to cover actual transmissions.

I'd be more selective by doing one or few provinces at a time. But there's an interesting pattern, & I'd lose it if a spike happened on Feb.19 #covid19
Feb. 17 China New #CoronaVirus Cases:

Actual | Prediction
Mainland: +79 +77
Hubei: +1807 +1787

Feb. 17 #CoronaVirus 1930 est:

Cases Worldwide: 73,332
Mainland China: 72,436 "confirmed"
International: 896

Fatalities: 1,873

#covid19
Feb. 17 Mainland China #CoronaVirus:

Updated Mainland fatality rates.

#covid19
Feb. 17 Mainland China #CoronaVirus:

Updated new 'confirmed' cases for Hubei and excluding Hubei.

#covid19
Feb. 18 Diamond Princess #CoronaVirus:

15% of all passengers on the Diamond Princess have #covid19

Not all passengers have been tested yet.
Feb. 18 #CoronaVirus 0600 est:

Cases Worldwide: 73,423
Mainland China: 72,437 "confirmed"
International: 986

Fatalities: 1,874

#covid19
Feb. 18 #CoronaVirus 1300 est:

Cases Worldwide: 73,436
Mainland China: 72,437 "confirmed"
International: 999

Fatalities: 1,874

#covid19
Hard to make a market against Xi the Healer's will at this point.
Feb. 18 #CoronaVirus 2030 est:

Cases Worldwide: 75,199
Mainland China: 74,185 "confirmed"
International: 1,014

Fatalities: 2,007

Hubei +1693 Cases, +132 Deaths
Mainland +56 Cases, +4 Deaths
#covid19
Feb. 18 #CoronaVirus:

Prediction | Actual
Hubei: +1675 +1693
Mainland: +61 +56

Total China: +1736 +1749

Daily prediction for epidemic in country of 1.4 Billion low by 0.74%

It's just math.

Why haven't we already given Xi the Nobel?
Feb. 19 #CoronaVirus 0400 est:

Cases Worldwide: 75,208
Mainland China: 74,185 "confirmed"
International: 1,023

Fatalities: 2,010

#covid19
Feb. 19 Diamond Princess #CoronaVirus:

79 new cases brings total infected to 621.

17% of all passengers on the Diamond Princess have #covid19
Feb. 19 #CoronaVirus 0510 est:

Cases Worldwide: 75,288
Mainland China: 74,185 "confirmed"
International: 1,103

Fatalities: 2,010

+79 cases on Diamond Princess, now 621 total
#covid19
Feb. 19 #CoronaVirus 0750 est:

Cases Worldwide: 75,299
Mainland China: 74,185 "confirmed"
International: 1,114

Fatalities: 2,010

#covid19
I've discussed a Feb.19/20 phase change possibility, so not surprised by definition change today.

Unlikely we see Mainland spike for clinically diagnosed.

But: +28k to +33k would only represent 45-54 Diamond Princess equivalents... a minor amount given the scale.

#covid19
I'd have Xi report 75,890 #coronavirus cases across China tonight if they weren't already threatening authorities for reporting more tomorrow.
Feb. 19 Diamond Princess #CoronaVirus:

4.5% of passengers with #covid19 are seriously ill

21% of tested passengers have #covid19

17% of all passengers have #covid19

The equivalent of ~200,000 DP cruise ships are in some form of lockdown in China.
Feb. 20 #CoronaVirus 0300 est:

Cases Worldwide: 75,734
Mainland China: 74,577 "confirmed"
International: 1,157

Fatalities: 2,128

Feb.19: Mainland + 60 Cases, + 6 Deaths
Hubei +349 Cases, +108 Deaths

#covid19
Xi has now effectively banned reporting new cases right up against the 75,000 line. This should mark a new clean up phase in the narrative.
Feb. 20 #CoronaVirus 0430 est:

Cases Worldwide: 75,754
Mainland China: 74,577 "confirmed"
International: 1,177

Fatalities: 2,129

New cases in South Korea and Iran.

#covid19
If you've been following, confusion in China #coronavirus data on Feb.19/20 should not surprise you. We've discussed the reported data changing in periods of ~8 days.

The epidemic does not follow an ~8 day cycle.

The humans trying to retain power do.

Feb. 20 #CoronaVirus 2100 est:

Cases Worldwide: 76,724
Mainland China: 75,465 "confirmed"
International: 1,259

Fatalities: 2,247

Still some confusion in Hubei province numbers reported by China as they modify their reporting.

#covid19
Feb. 20 #CoronaVirus 0545 est:

Cases Worldwide: 76,792
Mainland China: 75,465 "confirmed"
International: 1,327

Fatalities: 2,249

#covid19
Feb. 21 #CoronaVirus 1610 est:

Cases Worldwide: 77,270
Mainland China: 75,891 "confirmed"
International: 1,379

Fatalities: 2,250

#covid19
Feb. 21 #CoronaVirus:

Fatality Rates for Mainland China.
Feb. 21 #CoronaVirus 2100 est:

Cases Worldwide: 77,812
Mainland China: 76,288 "confirmed"
International: 1,522

Fatalities: 2,360

#covid19
Mainland China #coronavirus cases excluding Hubei.

Frankly, it's mind-blowing how stupid they think everyone is.
Another way to look at the raw Mainland numbers.
Feb. 22 #CoronaVirus 0900 est:

Cases Worldwide: 77,923
Mainland China: 76,288 "confirmed"
International: 1,633

Fatalities: 2,361

#covid19
Evidence of likely fraud in the Chinese #coronavirus data set was readily apparent as I've noted in late Jan. / early Feb.

This should have immediately raised awareness at @WHO, @CDCgov, and other governments who have now had > 3 weeks to prepare.
@WHO @CDCgov Feb. 22 #CoronaVirus 2030 est:

Cases Worldwide: 78,752
Mainland China: 76,918 "confirmed"
International: 1,831

Fatalities: 2,460

#covid19
@WHO @CDCgov Feb. 22 #CoronaVirus 2200 est:

Cases Worldwide: 78,773
Mainland China: 76,918 "confirmed"
International: 1,834

Fatalities: 2,461

+18 "Confirmed" cases in China outside Hubei

There were 20 times more in S.Korea in last 24 hrs.

#covid19
@WHO @CDCgov The media will eventually fixate on this chart, which shows how China claims to have virtually eradicated #coronavirus transmissions outside of Hubei beginning precisely on the day of Xi's Feb.3 Standing Committee address.
@WHO @CDCgov The media will go on about the remarkable flawless nature of the Mainland data and how it indicates premeditation early on in the reports #covid19
@WHO @CDCgov They will begin to compare the international and China data and start to question why @WHO did not recognize this early in the outbreak and immediately initiate an investigation rather than trying to help China control the #coronavirus narrative.
@WHO @CDCgov Feb. 23 #CoronaVirus 0430 est:

Cases Worldwide: 78,854
Mainland China: 76,936 "confirmed"
International: 1,918
Fatalities: 2,463

#covid19
@WHO @CDCgov Feb. 23 #CoronaVirus 0700 est:

Cases Worldwide: 78,898
Mainland China: 76,936 "confirmed"
International: 1,962
Fatalities: 2,467

#covid19
@WHO @CDCgov Feb. 23 #CoronaVirus 0830 est:

Cases Worldwide: 78,955
Mainland China: 76,936 "confirmed"
International: 2,019
Fatalities: 2,468

+57 on DP cruise ship means 19% of all passengers contracted #covid19 pushing international cases over 2,000
@WHO @CDCgov Feb. 24 #CoronaVirus 0130 est:

Cases Worldwide: 79,558
Mainland China: 77,345 "confirmed"
International: 2,213
Fatalities: 2,619

China Cases: +398 Hubei, +11 ex-Hubei
S.Korea Cases: +161

#covid19
@WHO @CDCgov Mainland China #coronavirus fatality rates through Feb. 23.
@WHO @CDCgov China Ex-Hubei #CoronaVirus:
Most insulting fraudulent data you may ever see. The Feb.20 prison outbreak was even a single day event.

China's assumption that the world is stupid appears to be correct, however, as the US president, WHO, and CDC fail to question the data.
@WHO @CDCgov China ex-Hubei vs. International #Coronavirus
@WHO @CDCgov Feb. 24 #CoronaVirus 1300 est:

Cases Worldwide: 79,719
Mainland China: 77,345 "confirmed"
International: 2,374
Fatalities: 2,627

Cases in 5 new countries today.

#covid19
@WHO @CDCgov Feb. 24 #CoronaVirus 1301 est:

Cases Worldwide: 79,737
Mainland China: 77,345 "confirmed"
International: 2,392
Fatalities: 2,627

+18 former Diamond Princess passengers evacuated to US.

Cases in 5 new countries today.

#covid19
@WHO @CDCgov Feb. 24 #CoronaVirus 2030 est:

Cases Worldwide: 80,138
Mainland China: 77,649 "confirmed"
International: 2,489
Fatalities: 2,699

China: +499 Hubei, +9 ex-Hubei

2x as many Americans evacuated from 1 ship test positive than China ex-Hubei
@WHO @CDCgov This image is Rorschach test you can use to identify which of your colleagues possess zero critical thinking skills whatsoever.

#coronavirus
@WHO @CDCgov The fake Mainland ex-Hubei #coronavirus cases vs. International
@WHO @CDCgov Feb. 25 #CoronaVirus 0615 est:

Cases Worldwide: 80,298
Mainland China: 77,658 "confirmed"
International: 2,640

Fatalities: 2,706

#covid19
@WHO @CDCgov Feb. 25 #CoronaVirus 1300 est:

Cases Worldwide: 80,404
Mainland China: 77,658 "confirmed"
International: 2,746

Fatalities: 2,709

#covid19
@WHO @CDCgov Feb. 25 #CoronaVirus 2115 est:

Cases Worldwide: 80,995
Mainland China: 78,404 "confirmed"
International: 2,931

Fatalities: 2,763

China: +401 Hubei, +5 ex-Hubei

#covid19
@WHO @CDCgov The world must demand that Xi IMMEDIATELY hold standing committee meetings in South Korea, Italy, and Iran to cure them of #coronavirus.
@WHO @CDCgov Feb. 25 Mainland ex-Hubei vs. International #COVID19:

Even a very small increase in Mainland cases will be glaringly obvious on this chart, and therefore Xi is unlikely to allow them.

ps: if your world leader is citing this data, he/she might be a moron.
@WHO @CDCgov Feb. 26 #CoronaVirus 0515 est:

Cases Worldwide: 81,224
Mainland China: 78,064 "confirmed"
International: 3,160

Fatalities: 2,769

#covid19
@WHO @CDCgov I've been telling you China's #coronavirus numbers were fraudulent since it was blatantly obvious in early February.

@WHO @CDCgov Feb. 26 #CoronaVirus 1230 est:

Cases Worldwide: 81,275
Mainland China: 78,064 "confirmed"
International: 3,211

Fatalities: 2,770

#covid19 has shown up in more new countries in the past 24 hours than in new humans from Mainland China ex-Hubei.
@WHO @CDCgov Feb. 26 #CoronaVirus 2050 est:

Cases Worldwide: 82,147
Mainland China: 78,497 "confirmed"
International: 3,650

Fatalities: 2,800

Trump puts Pence in charge of US response 26 days after evidence suggests China data fraudulent.

#covid19
@WHO @CDCgov Mainland China ex-Hubei vs. International #Coronavirus Cases.
@WHO @CDCgov Feb. 27 #CoronaVirus 0715 est:

Cases Worldwide: 82,586
Mainland China: 78,514 "confirmed"
International: 4,072

Fatalities: 2,811

International #covid19 cases are rapidly picking up.

It is in over 50 countries now.
@WHO @CDCgov Mainland China ex-Hubei #coronavirus vs. International
@WHO @CDCgov Feb. 28 #CoronaVirus 0330 est:

Cases Worldwide: 83,697
Mainland China: 78,824 "confirmed"
International: 4,824

Fatalities: 2,858

#COVID19 +7 new countries, yet only +9 cases in China ex-Hubei.

S.Korea new cases will be 2x all of China today.
@WHO @CDCgov Mainland China ex-Hubei #coronavirus vs. International

It is going to be an ugly day.
@WHO @CDCgov Feb. 28 #CoronaVirus 0610 est:

Cases Worldwide: 83,858
Mainland China: 78,824 "confirmed"
International: 5,034

Fatalities: 2,867

International #COVID19 cases cross 5,000. They will have doubled in 3 days by the end of Friday.
@WHO @CDCgov "First #coronavirus case in _____ "

+20% increase in new countries in the past day

(timelines from @BNODesk)
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk Feb. 28 #CoronaVirus 1300 est:

Cases Worldwide: 84,111
Mainland China: 78,824 "confirmed"
International: 5,287

Fatalities: 2,876

#covid19
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk This thread began early Feb. when a few things became clear:

1. Those with CCP connections (@elonmusk) were positioning
2. This is a serious event.
3. Something was very wrong with China data.

Month later:
- Frequent accurate predictions
- Rapid spread
- US is not prepared
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk Feb. 29 #CoronaVirus 0300 est:

Cases Worldwide: 85,189
Mainland China: 79,251 "confirmed"
International: 5,938

Fatalities: 2,924

International #covid19 doubled in ~3 days.

More new cases in the US than in China ex-Hubei on Fri.
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk Feb. 29 #CoronaVirus 0315 est:

Cases Worldwide: 85,408
Mainland China: 79,251 "confirmed"
International: 6,157

Fatalities: 2,924

International #covid19 doubled in ~3 days, now > 6k

More new cases in the US than in China ex-Hubei on Fri.
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk World leaders have been praising Xi the Healer, who cured Mainland China of #coronavirus in a single meeting.

However, The same leaders continue to refuse to hold similar meetings to eradicate their countries of #covid19.
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk Mainland China ex-Hubei #Coronavirus vs. International
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk An interesting chart to watch:

Mainland China ex-Hubei #Coronavirus vs. International with a 3 week lag
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk US leaders watched highly suspect China #coronavirus data for over a month and the outbreak for over 2 months without preparing for testing at scale in the US.

It took a dip in the markets for them to pay attention, and their focus remains on narrative.

@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk Feb. 29 #CoronaVirus 0530 est:

Cases Worldwide: 85,668
Mainland China: 79,251 "confirmed"
International: 6,417

Fatalities: 2,933

International #covid19 doubled in ~3 days, now > 6k

More new cases in the US than in China ex-Hubei on Fri.
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk Feb. 29 #CoronaVirus 1740 est:

Cases Worldwide: 85,998
Mainland China: 79,251 "confirmed"
International: 6,747

Fatalities: 2,942

#covid19
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk Mainland China ex-Hubei #Coronavirus vs. International with a 3 week lag
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk Feb. 29 #CoronaVirus 1930 est:

Cases Worldwide: 86,571
Mainland China: 79,824 "confirmed"
International: 6,747

Fatalities: 2,978

More new #covid19 cases in US than in all of China ex-Hubei for 2nd straight day.
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk Mar. 1 #CoronaVirus 0400 est:

Cases Worldwide: 86,980
Mainland China: 79,824 "confirmed"
International: 7,156

Fatalities: 2,979

More new #covid19 cases in US than in all of China ex-Hubei for 2nd straight day.
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk Mainland China ex-Hubei #Coronavirus vs. International with a 3 week shift. I tossed a few international darts and hope they are high.
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk Mar. 1 #CoronaVirus 0745 est:

Cases Worldwide: 87,365
Mainland China: 79,824 "confirmed"
International: 7,541

Fatalities: 2,991

The situation in Iran is far worse than reported.
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk Mar. 1 #CoronaVirus 1450 est:

Cases Worldwide: 88,295
Mainland China: 79,824 "confirmed"
International: 8,471

Fatalities: 3,000

'Reported' #covid19 deaths top 3,000
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk Mainland China ex-Hubei #Coronavirus vs. International with a 3 week shift.

My 8,437 dart is being demolished by today's 8,471 cases with some time left to go.
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk Mar. 1 #CoronaVirus 2030 est:

Cases Worldwide: 88,584
Mainland China: 80,026 "confirmed"
International: 8,558

Fatalities: 3,043

China will now be throwing endless shade at the rest of the World's reaction to #covid19
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk How much longer can World leaders praise China's #covid19 data w/out adopting their actions?:

- Hunting people w/ fever, or who had purchased fever medication
- Paying you to report anyone with a possible fever
- Chaining you in your home
- Mandatory cremations, Funerals banned
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk Mar. 1 Mainland China ex-Hubei #Coronavirus vs. International with a 3 week shift.
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk Mar. 2 #CoronaVirus 0220 est:

Cases Worldwide: 89,074
Mainland China: 80,026 "confirmed"
International: 9,048

Fatalities: 3,049

International #covid19 top 9,000, up by a factor of 10x in 13 days.
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk Mar. 2 #CoronaVirus 0600 est:

Cases Worldwide: 89,769
Mainland China: 80,026 "confirmed"
International: 9,743

Fatalities: 3,061

International #covid19 cases top 9,700, up by 10x in 12 days. 6x as many new cases today as in all of China.
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk Mainland China ex-Hubei #Coronavirus vs. International with a 3 week shift.

International already up +1188 on the day. Estimate I have is +1959 to 10,514, which I hope is high.
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk A global emergency was evident in late Jan. US leaders watched highly suspect China #coronavirus data for > 1 month and the outbreak for over 2 months w/out preparing for testing at scale & sourcing supplies in the US.

They watched the market instead.

@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk Mar. 2 #CoronaVirus 1300 est:

Cases Worldwide: 90,196
Mainland China: 80,026 "confirmed"
International: 10,170

Fatalities: 3,070

#covid19
International cases top 10,000
Total cases top 90,000
Countries top 75
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk Mar. 2 #CoronaVirus 2120 est:

Cases Worldwide: 90,922
Mainland China: 80,151 "confirmed"
International: 10,771

Fatalities: 3,132

World leaders now becoming desperately jealous of China's #covid19 data set
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk Xi the Healer taunts world leaders with cruel fake #coronavirus data set
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk Mainland China ex-Hubei #Coronavirus vs. International with a 3 week shift.

International up +1739 on the day, doubling every ~3 days.
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk Mar. 3 #CoronaVirus 0600 est:

Cases Worldwide: 92,138
Mainland China: 80,151 "confirmed"
International: 11,987

Fatalities: 3,134

+1693 international #covid19 cases today already, 13.5 times all of China yesterday
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk With 6 deaths and only 103 confirmed #covid19 cases, the US has the highest reported CFR of any country/region with over 5 deaths in the early phases of the epidemic
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk This is never something I wanted to be particularly good at predicting.
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk Mar. 3 #CoronaVirus 1500 est:

Cases Worldwide: 92,721
Mainland China: 80,151 "confirmed"
International: 12,570

Fatalities: 3,166

+2277 international #covid19 cases today, 18x all of China 'reported' cases yesterday
@WHO @CDCgov @BNODesk @elonmusk Mar. 3 International vs. China ex-Hubei #coronavirus cases. International will take out ex-Hubei overnight making this comparison less useful.

+2374 International cases on the day (GMT)
Mar. 3 #CoronaVirus 2050 est:

Cases Worldwide: 93,080
Mainland China: 80,080 "confirmed"
International: 12,810

Fatalities: 3,202

More new international #covid19 cases today than for the past 23 days combined in China ex-Hubei
Mar. 4 #CoronaVirus 0630 est:

Cases Worldwide: 94,149
Mainland China: 80,270 "confirmed"
International: 13,879

Fatalities: 3,219

International cases pass China ex-Hubei and are continuing to accelerate rapidly.
China began constructing makeshift #coronavirus hospitals 41 days ago when there were < 600 reported cases in the entire country.

The 1st opened as part of Xi's pre-determined recovery narrative on Feb.3.

Countries who did not prepare have no excuse.

There are 7 current countries/regions with more than 5 reported #covid19 deaths.

You can infer a lot from this chart, which includes crude fatality rate on reported cases. These are simply the current numbers early on Mar. 4.
International #covid19 cases may be on track for +15,000 today, which would be 16% of all of Mainland China cases
Now that international #covid19 cases have wiped out 'reported' ex-Hubei, we turn to visualizing the pandemic relative to all of China.

I'm shifting international back by 28 days, which is at least the amount of time most countries squandered instead of preparing for testing.
Mar. 4 #CoronaVirus 2000 est:

Cases Worldwide: 95,234
Mainland China: 80,409 "confirmed"
International: 14,825

Fatalities: 3,285

International #covid19 cases are now 18.4 % of China 'reported' cases
If you've been following along, you know the Mainland China #coronavirus recovery numbers are fake. The degree to which they are fake in either magnitude or behavior is not fully known.

But one thing is known: local governments are faking the recovery.

The China #covid19 inflection point was coordinated with Xi meetings and makeshift hospitals coming online. Even the outbreaks that couldn't be hidden at multiple prisons were identified, corrected, and officials were removed all in one day.
International #covid19 cases are at 14,970 currently and will cross 15,000 in a few hours.

We'll mark Mar. 4 (GMT) as +2157 to 14,825 vs. the 15,101 predicted due to lower than expected cases from S. Korea.

Hopefully their improvement will continue.
Now that China has been reporting itself cured for quite some time, we can get a better feel for what their final reported CFR will be. It should settle just under 4%

S.Korea is at 0.61%. If China's deaths were accurate, a SK equiv. # for China #covid19 cases would be ~494,000
Mar. 5 #CoronaVirus 0530 est:

Cases Worldwide: 96,044
Mainland China: 80,409 "confirmed"
International: 15,635

Fatalities: 3,301

Int'l #covid19 cases now 19.4% of China 'reported' cases.
Mar. 5 #CoronaVirus 2050 est:

Cases Worldwide: 98,101
Mainland China: 80,522 "confirmed"
International: 17,549

Fatalities: 3,386

If you believe the #s, China is now the safest place to ride out the #covid19 pandemic before they ban foreigners.
Xi the Healer let a few disgusting travelers with #coronavirus slip into the country today.
I'm not quite as good at predicting the broader #covid19 pandemic since it isn't coming from a model like the China data was
Mar. 6 #CoronaVirus 0330 est:

Cases Worldwide: 98,612
Mainland China: 80,555 "confirmed"
International: 18,057

Fatalities: 3,388

Total #covid19 'reported' cases should top 100,000 on Friday fueled by cases outside China likely topping 20,000
There are now 8 countries (incl. DP cruise ship) with greater than 5 #covid19 deaths.

If yours waited until people started dying to begin testing, it will score fairly poorly in initial fatality rates.
Mar. 6 #CoronaVirus 0700 est:

Cases Worldwide: 100,001
Mainland China: 80,555 "confirmed"
International: 19,446

Fatalities: 3,405

Total #covid19 'reported' cases top 100,000
Mar. 6 #CoronaVirus 1300 est:

Cases Worldwide: 100,886
Mainland China: 80,555 "confirmed"
International: 20,331

Fatalities: 3,454

Total #covid19 'reported' cases top 100,000. International cases to 20,000, now over 20% of all cases.

Pandemic.
Mar. 6 #CoronaVirus 1430 est:

Cases Worldwide: 101,336
Mainland China: 80,555 "confirmed"
International: 20,781

Fatalities: 3,456

+3404 International #covid19 cases so far, which will be roughly 30x what China will report.

It's a Pandemic.
Mar. 6 #CoronaVirus 2045 est:

Cases Worldwide: 101,526
Mainland China: 80,651 "confirmed"
International: 20,971

Fatalities: 3,484

+3594 International #covid19 cases on the day for the pandemic, or 36x all of China at +99.
Last night I made a model adjustment after a few lower prints that pulled today's prediction down to 20,266 from 20,857. Reverting back to yesterday's model since we came in at 20,971 and we may be overshooting that.

#COVIDー19
Just because China's #s are fake doesn't mean containment measures had no impact.

It's impossible for world leaders to say they were working with China if they weren't preparing for testing at scale.

ps: Clock ticks if you want to ride pandemic out in China before travel banned
Mar. 7 #CoronaVirus 1100 est:

Cases Worldwide: 103,525
Mainland China: 80,651 "confirmed"
International: 22,874

Fatalities: 3,517

At least 45 countries reported new cases yesterday, but...

The coronavirus panic is dumb.
Mar. 7 #CoronaVirus 1220 est:

Cases Worldwide: 105,328
Mainland China: 80,651 "confirmed"
International: 24,677

Fatalities: 3,561

International #covid19 cases already up +3626.
#Coronavirus cases outside China increased sharply on Saturday to over 25,000, now over 31% of the 'reported' China cases and ~25% of all reported cases worldwide.

The growth in cases is behaving more exponentially as countries around the world are slow to react.
Mar. 7 #CoronaVirus 2010 est:

Cases Worldwide: 105,912
Mainland China: 80,695 "confirmed"
International: 25,217

Fatalities: 3,597

International #covid19 cases spiked up +4163.
Y'all been Xi'ed.

This may be the most cruel fake dataset of all time as world leaders who sat by praising China while doing nothing to prepare for #coronavirus watch it grow exponentially in their respective countries.
Mar. 8 #CoronaVirus 0730 est:

Cases Worldwide: 107,096
Mainland China: 80,695 "confirmed"
International: 26,401

Fatalities: 3,649
Mar. 8 #CoronaVirus 1330 est:

Cases Worldwide: 109,405
Mainland China: 80,695 "confirmed"
International: 28,710

Fatalities: 3,798
Mar. 8 #CoronaVirus 2130 est:

Cases Worldwide: 109,791
Mainland China: 80,735 "confirmed"
International: 29,056

Fatalities: 3,824

International #covid19 cases will top 30,000 pushing total worldwide cases over 110,000 within hours.
Italy posted 133 #coronavirus deaths on Sunday alone, which is nearly as high as the most deaths China reported in a single day during the entire outbreak.
The chart you all knew was coming:

#CoronaVirus US vs. China. A 46 day shift aligns US & China cases, meaning the US had 46 days to prepare.

US matched China's Jan.22 on Sunday. China began locking down major cities & building emergency hospitals on Jan.23.

Jan.23 is today.
Mar. 9 #CoronaVirus 0720 est:

Cases Worldwide: 111,246
Mainland China: 80,735 "confirmed"
International: 30,511

Fatalities: 3,879

International #covid19 cases top 30,000 pushing total worldwide cases over 111,000.
Similar treatment with Italy vs. China as in the previous US v. China chart.

Italy shift to match China Jan.22 requires 36 days.

Slope of Italy #coronavirus cases initially lower than all of 'reported' China, but last few days are concerning.
I did think about it. I also thought about the #covid19 problem obvious in China. I thought about the significance of their #s being fake.

That's why there is this insanely long thread. That's why we know bragging about low numbers at the beginning of an epidemic is dumb.
Italy. Not so good.
Y'all been Xi'ed.
Mar. 9 #CoronaVirus 2110 est:

Cases Worldwide: 114,015
Mainland China: 80,754 "confirmed"
International: 33,261

Fatalities: 4,016

Reported deaths cross 4,000. Int'l #covid19 cases will top 35,000 pushing total cases over 115,000 within hrs.
Mar. 10 #CoronaVirus 1420 est:

Cases Worldwide: 117,734
Mainland China: 80,754 "confirmed"
International: 36,802

Fatalities: 4,203

Prepare for widespread lockdowns in more countries as well as major US cities/states. #covid19
There are now 10 countries/regions (incl. ships) with over 5 #covid19 deaths.

Italy is shaping up to be particularly disastrous.
I wish the day was over, but it isn't.

How dare any US politician tout low #coronavirus numbers early in the epidemic when the US was not prepared for testing even after watching other countries struggle for months.

What if it had been intentional?
Mar. 10 #CoronaVirus 2130 est:

Cases Worldwide: 118,843
Mainland China: 80,778 "confirmed"
International: 38,065

Fatalities: 4,290

US cases top 1,000. Italy cases top 10,000.

International cases will be more than 1/2 of China cases tomorrow.
For weeks @CDCgov :

- was aware of positive #covid19 test results in WA
- had a way to monitor the region
- covered up the positive results
- did not change testing criteria
- prevented researchers from testing
- did not prepare for testing

nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/…
Mar. 11 #CoronaVirus 0730 est:

Cases Worldwide: 120,959
Mainland China: 80,778 "confirmed"
International: 40,181

Fatalities: 4,370

International cases will be more than 50% of China cases within moments.
China 'reported' #covid19 cases vs International.
By this time tomorrow Italy will have reported more #coronavirus cases than in all of China outside Hubei.
Mar. 11 #CoronaVirus 2130 est:

Cases Worldwide: 125,892
Mainland China: 80,793 "confirmed"
International: 45,099

Fatalities: 4,577

International cases up more than 7,000 today.

One of the most depressing days since the pandemic began.
Reported cases out of South Korea indicate that #coronavirus just needed to be paid some freaking respect.
Mar. 12 #CoronaVirus 2045 est:

Cases Worldwide: 133,325
Mainland China: 80,793 "confirmed"
International: 52,532

Fatalities: 4,967

Int'l cases up ~7,500 today. Sadly, reported deaths will cross 5,000 tomorrow.

Biggest market crash since 1987.
Mar. 13 #CoronaVirus 1055 est:

Cases Worldwide: 138,071
Mainland China: 80,814 "confirmed"
International: 57,257

Fatalities: 5,103

Reported deaths cross 5,000.

Intn'l cases will top # of cases China "reported" in Hubei by tomorrow.
Italy has reported more #coronavirus cases in the past 3 days than China has in the past 23.
Mar. 14 #CoronaVirus 0300 est:

Cases Worldwide: 144,935
Mainland China: 80,824 "confirmed"
International: 64,111

Fatalities: 5,409

Intn'l cases up 10,000 yesterday, slope now far more severe than ever reported by China.
An interesting look at #covid19 CFR as it develops in Italy vs. what was reported in China.
Mar. 14 #CoronaVirus 1330 est:

Cases Worldwide: 152,935
Mainland China: 80,824 "confirmed"
International: 71,718

Fatalities: 5,774

Total #covid19 cases now over 150k.

By tomorrow there will be more cases outside of China than they ever reported.
Mar. 15 #CoronaVirus 0730 est:

Cases Worldwide: 156,873
Mainland China: 80,844 "confirmed"
International: 76,029

Fatalities: 5,832

In a few hrs there will be more cases outside of China than they ever reported and over 6,000 reported deaths.
Mar. 15 #CoronaVirus 1940 est:

Cases Worldwide: 163,855
Mainland China: 80,844 "confirmed"
International: 83,011

Fatalities: 6,475

International cases explode past China 'reported' cases.

US outbreak behaving very similar to Italy.
Mar. 16 #CoronaVirus 0300 est:

Cases:
Worldwide: 169,210
China: 80,860 "confirmed"
International: 88,350

Fatalities: 6,509

Cases ex-China continue exponential growth.

If only governments had respected #covid19 as it has been in this thread.
Mar. 16 #CoronaVirus 1420 est:

Cases:
Worldwide: 178,563
China: 80,860 "confirmed"
International: 97,703

Fatalities: 7,045

I count 132 countries going exponential with a crude CFR of 3.95%.

Dear God.
Mar. 16 #CoronaVirus 2340 est:

Cases:
Worldwide: 181,461
China: 80,860 "confirmed"
International: 100,601

Fatalities: 7,125

Cases outside Hubei cross 100k.

Ask @twittersupport to remove the shadowban if you'd like to see the rest of this important thread.
Mar. 17 #CoronaVirus 0800 est:

Cases:
Worldwide: 185,537
China: 80,881 "confirmed"
International: 104,656
Fatalities: 7,450

Thanks to @twittersupport/@delbius' support of @elonmusk, who is putting his employees at risk, this thread is currently shadowbanned
Editor's note:
This isn't intended to be the greatest visual on the #coronavirus outbreak.

Intent is to capture the scale & trajectory. It has since early Feb. while leaders ignored it.

140 countries now affected.

US must prepare & look to Italy.

US is Italy in ~10 days.
Mar. 17 #CoronaVirus 1400 est:

Cases:
Worldwide: 193,319
China: 80,881 "confirmed"
International: 112,438

Fatalities: 7,880

Every US healthcare professional should already be planning for a situation like Italy & hoping for the best.
Some criticize this chart. I find it very informative as it looks past the headline CFR (no lag) and into the development across lags and over time.

China 'reported' an initial headline of ~2.0% for nearly 2 weeks straight. It will now settle at 4.00%. It is highly suspect.
Mar. 18 #CoronaVirus 0340 est:

Cases:
Worldwide: 198,130
China: 80,881 "confirmed"
International: 117,249

Fatalities: 7,980

#covid19 in every US state.
#covid19 in every European country.
Mar. 18 #CoronaVirus 0910 est:

Cases:
Worldwide: 202,922
China: 80,881 "confirmed"
International: 122,041

Fatalities: 8,141

If more had listened when this thread started on Feb. 2, the situation would not be near as dire.

Instead, @twitter has censored it.
Italy just reported 475 new deaths. This is more than 3 times the number China ever 'reported' in a single day.

Mar. 18 #CoronaVirus 1330 est:

Cases:
Worldwide: 210,626
China: 80,881 "confirmed"
International: 129,745

Fatalities: 8,718

This was an emergency in Jan.. When China's #s were suspect in Feb., it was a crisis.

We are here because few respected #covid19
Mar. 19 #CoronaVirus 0120 est:

Cases:
Worldwide: 216,877
International: 135,996
China: 80,894 "confirmed"

Fatalities: 8,971

US cases jumped 42% today, passing S. Korea.
Note how China's 'reported' case fatality rate is seeking a conclusion of nearly exactly 4.00%
Mar. 19 #CoronaVirus 0830 est:

Cases:
Worldwide: 225,624
International: 144,624
China: 80,894 "confirmed"

Fatalities: 9,274

US cases now overtaking Italian trajectory.
Deaths pass 9k.
Overall initial CFR continues to rise.

Changing *very* rapidly now.
Mar. 19 #CoronaVirus 1400 est:

Cases:
Worldwide: 233,162
International: 152,281
China: 80,928 "confirmed"

Fatalities: 9,784

Momentarily:
- Deaths will cross 10,000
- More CoV19 cases outside of China than they ever 'reported'

This thread is still censored.
Americans will wake up to a new reality on March 20, 2020.

You knew it was coming if you've been following this thread, which has now been throttled by @twittersupport.

This is an unspeakable tragedy, and I wish more had listened.

#covid19
Mar. 20 #CoronaVirus 0220 est:

Cases:
World: 243,642
Outside China: 162,761

Fatalities: 10,180

Due to the delayed response, US cases up 42% on Wed. & 48% on Thurs.

Expect to see those with history of stealing public resources (@elonmusk) exploit crisis for gain
NEW US cases were up +88% Wed. and +59% Thurs.

which pushed

TOTAL US cases up +43% Wed. and +48% Thurs.

.@elonmusk claims they are dropping as he defies public health orders and positions himself to misuse additional public resources during the crisis.
Chart showing development over time of the Coronavirus case fatality rate in US, Italy, and that reported by China for those that want to look beyond the headline numbers.
Mar. 20 #CoronaVirus 0900 est:

Cases:
World: 250,747
Outside China: 169,780

Fatalities: 10,524

Now over 250k cases worldwide with more than 156k unresolved.
Italy reporting 627 deaths.

This is over 4 times the number China ever 'reported' in a single day.

26 people are dying every hour from coronavirus alone in Italy.

Mar. 20 #CoronaVirus 1330 est:

Cases:
World: 259,131
Outside China: 178,164

Fatalities: 11,220

Look where minimizing the problem has gotten us.
#coronavirus cases in the US have tripled in 3 days on Friday, the 57th day since China began construction of makeshift hospitals.

This demonstrates how tragically behind the US has been in response to the pandemic, which is more reason for the economic collapse than the virus
Confirmed US #coronavirus cases are already over 20,000 as of 0330 AM on Saturday
Mar. 21 #CoronaVirus 0330 est:

Cases:
World: 274,436
Outside China: 193,428

Fatalities: 11,525

Confirmed cases now on this steep portion of an exponential trend for over 10 days

The 58th day since the world watched China begin makeshift hospital construction
If you've been following this thread, you already know that US intelligence agencies knew of the risk of the #coronavirus pandemic

This is the equivalent (so far) of having damage reports from 10 Katrinas BEFORE the storms hit and refusing to take action

washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
Mar. 21 #CoronaVirus 1340 est:

Cases:
World: 295,925
Outside China: 214,927

Fatalities: 12,906

It's hard to articulate how explosive it is becoming with each passing hour.
It's day 59 since the world watched China begin construction of makeshift hospitals without bothering to think that might be important.

The scandal of the US not being prepared to test despite intelligence flagging the risk is starting to really show.

US cases are exploding.
Mar. 22 #CoronaVirus 1630 est:

Cases:
World: 331,631
Outside China: 250,623

Fatalities: 14,632

All coronavirus wanted is for people to respect it.

In this thread now censored by @twitter, we knew the severity early on.
Here's how I like to look at CFR. I get that it isn't the best chart, but it has a lot of info per pixel and allows one to study how CFR developed both across time and against other countries on the calendar.

Europe bad. US, S.Korea interesting. China highly suspect.
I am hearing more reports similar to what Ben is describing below wrt reporting of US covid19 deaths.

If true, you would expect an unusual result in the no-lag CFR curve. The US CFR curve is unusual, like no other reported during the pandemic.

Mar. 23 #CoronaVirus 0730 est:

Cases:
World: 347,440
Outside China: 266,432

Fatalities: 15,358
A glimpse of hope finally emerges on the 14th day after Italy went into lockdown.
Mar. 23 #CoronaVirus 1730 est:

Cases:
World: 371,650
Outside China: 290,642

Fatalities: 16,379

More than 1,750 people have died from #covid19 in the past 24 hrs. The only reason it hasn't yet killed more than the flu is time & aggressive containment.
Confirmed US covid19 cases have gone up more than 5 fold in 5 days.

Community spread has been occurring for some time in the US, which did not prepare for testing despite months of warning.

Lack of testing capability (a scandal) has delayed containment and crippled the economy.
Mar. 24 #CoronaVirus 0400 est:

Cases:
World: 381,235
Outside China: 300,064

Fatalities: 16,551
Mar. 24 #CoronaVirus 1330 est:

Cases:
World: 403,069
Outside China: 321,898

Fatalities: 18,096

Reported deaths pass 18,000. They passed 10,000 around 100 hours ago.
US #covid19 cases cross 50,000. Up an order of magnitude in 1 week.
I've mentioned that coronavirus testing in the United States was a major scandal that was difficult to express in words.

Why?

Note US vs. China with *46 DAY* lag.

The exponential nature of the covid19 outbreak makes it immune to those who deny it.

It also gave warning in successive countries as the US failed to prepare.

COVID19 wasn't responsible alone for the economic crisis.

Trying to hide it was.
COV19 case fatality rates by country and across time.
Confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US crossed 60,000 on Wednesday, up an order of magnitude in 1 week.

This is a far more violent rate of new cases than in China or Europe and has been worsened substantially by lack of preparation for testing.
Mar. 25 #CoronaVirus 1800 est:

Cases:
World: 458,325
Outside China: 377,107

Fatalities: 21,059

Today is day 85 of 2020.
The United States now has more C19 cases than ever reported by China in Hubei province.

US is on track to overtake all of 'reported' China cases in the next 36 hours.
Mar. 26 #CoronaVirus 0030 est:

Cases:
World: 469,140
Outside China: 387,922

Fatalities: 21,430

Today is day 86 of 2020.

Total C19 cases should exceed 500,000 with more than 370,000 unresolved today.
Total reported C19 cases are now over 500,000.
Mar. 26 #CoronaVirus 1600 est:

Cases:
World: 517,635
Outside China: 436,350

Fatalities: 23,607

The United States is up an order of magnitude in 8 days and will pass Italy in COVID-19 cases momentarily.
United States overtakes China in most reported COVID-19 cases.
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