In this thread, I explain why this is unlikely, and why it's not China we should be truly worried about.
Let's start with the facts. 1/

If we deduct the growth of debt on the growth of GDP, we get an estimate on the 'organic' growth rate for Chinese #economy.
Which has been negative since 2011 (till 2017). 2/

Faced by any prolonged economic slowdown, not to speak of a #recession, they are likely to fail in "en masse".
This is likely, why President Xi is pushing for a quick reopening of factories. 5/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
More so, if highly levered banks are forced to consent to large losses, which means they simply cannot lend. 6/
sebmarketwrap.blogspot.com/2020/02/will-c…
The Eurozone has been flirting with #recession since November. December industrial production figures were just horrible.
A massive fall in Chinese demand in January, February and (likely) in March will push Eurozone into a recession. 7/
This is exactly what happens in a #recession. 8/
mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/id…
Why? Because we hold the largest concentration of global systemically important banks.
And, thanks to the #ECB, many of them are already weak. 9/ gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/10/…
It poses the gravest threat we have seen for over a decade, maybe for decades.
At this point, we cannot know how the outbreak will proceed, but it may already... 10/
The clock is ticking. 11/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2020/02/…
#brace
#coronavirus #economy #recession #Crisis
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/06/…