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Kiva Dickinson Profile picture
@KivaDickinson
Feb 23, 2020 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Thinking of the right analogy to explain tonight’s #Leafs game to my American friends: your fav MLB baseball team is in a playoff race playing the team right above them in the standings. They’re out of pitchers in the 5th inning - as a courtesy you lend them your groundskeeper...
...He was a high school relief pitcher back in the day. Now he’s 42 and mows the grass, and throws batting practice when everyone else needs a rest. He starts throwing 70 mph and your team strikes out looking for the next 4 innings...
...Rock bottom for the @MapleLeafs, but also gotta feel good for that groundskeeper. Dave Ayres you’re a legend 👏

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More from @KivaDickinson

Kiva Dickinson Profile picture
Feb 24, 2023
State of the venture market in CPG 🧵
Last week we spent time on-site with a number of our LPs to discuss the dynamics in CPG venture

Main questions asked:

How much has CPG tracked tech in slowdown of deal activity and valuation decline?

What is the “right” discount from 2021 prices?

How close are we to the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
To discuss the differences from tech we first tried to unpack the domino effect that happened in tech:

Summer ‘21 inflation print ⬆️
> interest rate hikes ⬆️
> WACC in DCF models ⬆️
> implied public tech valuations ⬇️
> exit assumptions in VC models ⬇️
> entry price in new VC… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 13 tweets
Kiva Dickinson Profile picture
Nov 23, 2021
Health and wellness is an absolute megatrend, and we're still in the early innings

Tens of billions of equity value will be created this decade in companies that don't exist yet

This comes from 4 key factors

(Thread)
1/ Factor #1: The wellness economy is absolutely booming worldwide

People are demanding better products to put in, on and around their bodies

And better experiences that make healthier living easier and more fun
2/ Wellness has culturally surpassed traditional luxury brands as the way younger people want to spend and exhibit their wealth

This is a massive generational shift
Read 16 tweets
Kiva Dickinson Profile picture
Aug 31, 2021
Valuations are rising across emerging CPG which forces us to reconsider our frameworks

Investors are naturally complaining (as we do) but what is happening here?

(Thread)
1/ First off, consumer products seed and series A investors typically use two methods of valuation:

A. Multiple of revenue
B. “What do you need to believe?” analysis
2/ Multiple of revenue typically means applying acquisition multiples in the category to your current revenue

E.g. Hershey is your most likely acquirer and they typically pay 3-5x LTM sales at acquisition so you should raise at 3-5x sales today
Read 18 tweets
Kiva Dickinson Profile picture
Aug 9, 2021
One of the most important lessons I’ve learned since founding Selva Ventures is the close relationship between fear and conviction

(Thread)
First of all, fear is everywhere and inevitable

It’s the product of combining uncertainty and care about an outcome

It’s the root emotion of a handful of derivative emotions we see everyday: anxiety, anger, frustration, insecurity, arrogance
Most unpleasant interactions I have with people can be explained by fear (if I can be empathetic enough to ask myself “why?”)

Most people that I’m drawn to have managed their fears better than others: they know who they are and they play the long game
Read 12 tweets
Kiva Dickinson Profile picture
Jul 27, 2021
I have one super high-conviction category bet in CPG that always invites a ton of skepticism and pushback: Non-alcoholic beer, wine and spirits

3 years ago I was a skeptic but now I'm convinced

Many people don’t believe me, but I think it’s going to be huge

Thread 👇
1/ In the past few years people have finally begun to apply their health & wellness mindset to their drinking habits, with the result being low sugar, low ABV and low additive replacements

I’ve written about this here:
2/ This trend has already spawned big winners in low sugar (White Claw / Truly) and low ABV (Aperol)

It has also led consumers to question why they default to drinking in certain situations and then regret it later
Read 14 tweets
Kiva Dickinson Profile picture
Jun 2, 2021
My bet on the next category in consumer packaged goods to produce a billion dollar brand: Sleep

Here’s why 👇👇👇
1/ Health and wellness has historically meant diet and exercise, but that misses a critically important third leg of the stool in our physical well-being:

The ~8 hours of quality sleep we need each night
2/ The sleep economy has three core components: hardware, nutrition and tracking

They work in tandem: hardware for optimal comfort, nutrition for onset and ritual, tracking for a feedback loop of insights
Read 16 tweets

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