For those who enjoy a sneaky preview: here are the draft conclusions from my CMLRev paper, on Johnson's "Great Brexit Deal", specifically the (rather long) section dealing with Protocol on Ireland & Northern Ireland:
1) Good Friday Agreement was meant to bring relative stability to NI – offering time & space for divisions to heal / differences to soften. 2016 referendum = anything but softest of soft Brexits bound to be problem for NI. Let alone hard Brexit now advocated by Johnson Government
2) Protocol is intended to provide credible and durable solution to Irish border problem that protects peace in NI, respects EU customs / regulatory concerns and satisfies UK trade demands. But in fact: Protocol contains considerable economic risks for every relevant party.
3) For EU: own borders policed by 3rd country already proven & continues to show itself as unreliable. For UK: significant disruption to its own newfound internal market. For NI itself: guinea pig for dual customs regime once dismissed by Johnson & Co as damaging and unworkable
4) And Protocol already damaging political stability in NI. For unionists: perceive threat to British identity. For nationalists: raises hopes of reunification earlier than many expected. Protocol reduces collective incentive to make GFA work / defuse identity politics
5) All of which means there is a dangerously high chance that Protocol system may simply break down within relatively short period of time – particularly if UK Government continues to play games / tell lies. Yet every other pathway from such scenario only presents own problems:
6) E.g. of EU being forced to impose border, so as to protect single market, by UK government that refuses to respect own agreement. E.g. of Irish reunification being pressed forward before both main communities feel comfortable and indeed before Republic is ready to handle it.
ps, don't get too bogged down in dispute settlement mechanisms under the Withdrawal Agreement. As usual, they are so cumbersome and blunt as to be of limited utility. This is a political problem that requires serious and responsible solutions. Real problem is: UK Gov is neither
