A short thread with my initial “compare and contrast” between EU and UK negotiating mandates: 10 points to follow...
1) EU position = no great surprises: largely follows old guidelines + Political Declaration. But clear that Johnson Gov does not regard itself even as morally bound to respect terms of own withdrawal package: now proposes extreme Brexit with very distant model of EU-UK relations
2) UK position is not only significant departure from its own revised Political Declaration but now also stands light years away from new EU mandate. Lots of examples: what to do with audiovisual services, geographical origins, Gibraltar etc. But here are my "key issues":
3) Parties have very different (almost philosophical) starting points. EU regards future relations with UK as of particular importance for trade/security/strategic interests. But UK regards relationship almost with indifference: one component in grand designs of “Global Britain”
4) As regards very scope / structure of relationship, EU sticks to idea of institutional framework + economic & security partnerships. But UK now rejects any overall framework. Wants free trade agreement + ad hoc sectoral treaties. Distinct security partnership simply disappears
5) Parties are diametrically opposed on central question of level playing field. EU fleshes out Political Declaration – especially on state aid but also employment etc. But UK entirely downplays whole issue & effectively renounces previous agreement – now completely minimalist
6) Equally wide chasm separates parties over fisheries. EU’s primary objective = maintain status quo as regards access to waters / allocation of quotas – also linking this to Single Market access. UK wants to keep its market access but make significant changes to fishing rights
7) Also major divergences on security issues. Eg EU makes UK’s continued membership of ECHR central to crossborder criminal cooperation. UK again highly sovereigntist: don’t specify how we should protect human rights! But we still want to be able to terminate agreement at will...
8) And of course: very different views on timescales. EU keeps extension to transition alive. But UK is adamant: 2021 = new start + if that means “no deal” then fine. Indeed, UK now claims: if insufficient progress by June stocktake, we may well walk away from talks altogether
9) Given distance separating parties, scant chance deal will be done within such short deadline. Even on most optimistic assessment: deal, on terms acceptable to UK, by 2021, would involve such downgrading in EU-UK relations that (for many sectors) may as well be no deal at all.
10) Far more likely? Transition ends with no significant agreement – so Johnson’s hard right supporters succeed in getting “hard Brexit” they always hoped for. And even if deal emerges later, only means “2 regulatory changes” that transition period was precisely designed to avoid
