The peer review is EXTREME.
Thus the recently published article by Guan et al in the NEJM is the seminal AND most up-to-date epidemiological study of COVID-19.
So a 1.4% COVID-19 mortality is SIGNIFICANTLY less than the 9-10% of SARS.
However the real figure is potentially less than 1%.
Here we see the R0 rate is 2.2
This means each patient spreads to approximately two people.
Note - SARS had an R0 of 3.
Similarly the prevalence of severe illness in COVID-19 is skewed toward the elderly with ZERO fatalities in children less than 15yo.
However so long as the virus does not mutate the epidemiological trajectory suggests it won’t be as serious as SARS.
These are the current facts.
Indeed China has been resolute in its use of hygiene prevention, travel restriction, surveillance, diagnosis, isolation and contact tracing.
This has minimised the risk of mutation and spread.
The strategy will move from containment to treatment.
So what do I think will happen❓
The fragile virus is susceptible to heat.
As the northern hemisphere summer arrives it will peter out.
The relative prevalence will increase in the West as it decreases in China.
Sadly the MSM will continue to use the presence of COVID-19 in 🇺🇸 to score political points against #POTUS.
Similarly any opportunity to tank the economy, by building a false narrative of risk, will desperately be taken.
Then an eventual vindication for the President.
That’s where the numbers are heading.