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1) COVID-19

My take:


2) The ‘New England Journal of Medicine’ is THE most prestigious medical journal on the planet. 📓

The peer review is EXTREME.

Thus the recently published article by Guan et al in the NEJM is the seminal AND most up-to-date epidemiological study of COVID-19.

3) However before I discuss this article I must disclose that I am no longer a Doctor.

I have been fully Deregistered by the Medical Council of NSW for my political support of #POTUS and research of #QAnon.

Nevertheless let’s look at the article: 👇…
4) The most salient stat is that COVID-19 has a mortality rate of 15/1099 = 1.4%

The N value of 1099 subjects is quite robust.

The mortality may be overestimated given many potential serum/sputum positive patients would be asymptomatic and thus excluded from z study.
5) Similarly the quality of ICU care in 🇨🇳 would likely be poorer than Western counterparts and therefore compound the value.

So a 1.4% COVID-19 mortality is SIGNIFICANTLY less than the 9-10% of SARS.

However the real figure is potentially less than 1%.
6) Now let’s look at an earlier article discussing the infectivity or transmission rate (R0) of COVID-19.👇

Here we see the R0 rate is 2.2

This means each patient spreads to approximately two people.

Note - SARS had an R0 of 3.…
7) Hence the morbidity, mortality and infectivity of COVID-19 are all less than SARS.

Similarly the prevalence of severe illness in COVID-19 is skewed toward the elderly with ZERO fatalities in children less than 15yo.
8) COVID-19 is more serious than seasonal flu, which has a mortality of 0.1%.

However so long as the virus does not mutate the epidemiological trajectory suggests it won’t be as serious as SARS.

These are the current facts.
9) It is quite remarkable how an authoritarian regime is able to mitigate.

Indeed China has been resolute in its use of hygiene prevention, travel restriction, surveillance, diagnosis, isolation and contact tracing.

This has minimised the risk of mutation and spread.
10) Eventually COVID-19 will be present in all countries WW.

The strategy will move from containment to treatment.

So what do I think will happen❓

The fragile virus is susceptible to heat.

As the northern hemisphere summer arrives it will peter out.

No pandemic.
11) There will be a lag in Western counties.

The relative prevalence will increase in the West as it decreases in China.

Sadly the MSM will continue to use the presence of COVID-19 in 🇺🇸 to score political points against #POTUS.
12) By projecting the presence of COVID-19 onto the President - the MSM will seek to insinuate guilt no matter the lack of substance.

Similarly any opportunity to tank the economy, by building a false narrative of risk, will desperately be taken.
13) So expect increasing COVID-19 hysteria.

Then an eventual vindication for the President.

That’s where the numbers are heading.
14) There are of course many theories behind the emergence of COVID-19.

Understanding this will be the key to future prevention.


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