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My notes from a Morgan Stanley hosted event with John Hopkins Chief Epidemiologist. JH is forecasting a widespread outbreak, they est 40-60% of the world pop will be infected over 1-2 years. They est true death rate will be .1% -.5%. They expect it to peak in the spring...
ITS NOT THAT BAD- many no symptoms, to cold, to flu-like
Dangerous for elderly and immunocompromised, as reported
No incentive right no to test mild cases, so the death rate will be massively overstated
They expect there to be school closures, but that they will not be particularly effective
They believe this will be a circulating annual virus like the flu that will peak in the spring
They believe this has been circulating for some time, most cases are very mild, under-tested
He stated “i will likely get the virus, as I will be treating these patients”
“I will not wear a mask because it will be useless”
The biggest risk to travel is flying to an international destination and then having the govt cancel travel
Hospitals are likely to be overwhelmed, ICUs will be stressed and undersupplied
Social distancing unlikely to be effective, basically just wash your hands and don’t touch your face
By 2022 we will likely have vaccines and ultimately we will have routine childhood immunizations
He emphasized that this is a fluid situation and this information can quickly become stale, but this is their best guess at this time #COVID19 #coronavirus
Many are asking me for doc’s name. This is not him, but another broker held a call with this doc Friday. Similar takeaways. I’m linking to him as he is already posting publicly
Clearly the 40% low end is an educated guess. Maybe this 20% is more prudent. I am not an expert.
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