My Authors
Read all threads
It is time for one long #Coronavirus update. I have been resisting doing this as (1) I do not want to add to the hysteria & the panic & (2) I don't believe in doomsday predictions. Moreover, things have been moving so fast, who knows what's what. BUT it's time for real talk...
Overall, #Coronavirus (the outbreak of #COVID19) is REAL. The effects on your daily life from the fallout will be REAL. The impact society, economics, & politics in 2020 will be severe & REAL. None of this is Fake News. None of this should be downplayed. (2/
People who are trying to silence REAL discussion are doing a disservice to the public interest. This is a 9/11 & 2008 level event in terms of its impact on domestic & international dynamics. This thread is not about creating panic but encouraging a smarter response. (3/
Before delving into specifics, let's call out two types of people: the deniers & the hoarders. THEY ARE BOTH DANGEROUS. The Deniers are trying to tell you this is the 'flu', that no one should worry, & that you're dumb (cc: @elonmusk). These people should be ignored. (4/
The Hoarders are also dangerous because it is important to maintain collective action & responsibility. Raiding stores for supplies will create catastrophic insufficiencies & insecurities in society. Plan ahead (2-4 weeks) but no need to buy 2 years of toilet paper supplies (5/
So what do we know? The Coronavirus started in #China at least some time in #December as early as December 10 but likely sooner. It is actually not possible to determine the first cases because initially #China suppressed all information (6/ wsj.com/articles/how-i…
It is alleged that the virus started in the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, which was then closed on January 1. This market sells all types of meat from snakes to hedgehogs. The virus was definitely circulating in the market with many initial cases (7/ businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavi…
BUT subsequent scientific research has shown that 13 of some of the original cases had no links to the Market, meaning we still DO NOT KNOW the origin of the virus or patient zero. This is a big deal in trying to understand the virus and its mutations (8/ sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/w…
A later paper noted that it could be the virus originated elsewhere. Also initial indications about bats or pangolins being the carriers have been inconclusive. A lot is still not understand about the origin and spread of the disease (9/ academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar…
Amidst this murkiness, many people have alleged that the #coronavirus was 'cooked up in a lab in #Wuhan' pointing to the english.whiov.cas.cn & there are affiliated facilities just 300 meters from the market itself. Yet there has been no evidence of connection (10/
At the same time it should be noted that #China has issued a directive to ensure better safety controls at such labs. And the lab in #Wuhan was in fact setup to monitor SARS-type viruses and did in fact test on bats. (11/ news.sciencenet.cn/htmlnews/2020/…
The suspicions that have fallen on #China have not gone away partially because early whistleblowers were silenced. Many have subsequently disappeared & some have died from the virus (12/ i.insider.com/5e4c27814b661b… businessinsider.com/china-coronavi…
Dr. Li Wenliang warned his colleagues about the disease in private WeChat messages as early as December 30. On January 9, the @WHO acknowledged formally the outbreak, but it was already likely one month after #Chinese authorities knew of it (13/ who.int/china/news/det…
#China has continued to censor private messages in #WeChat, something reported on by many media outlets (& that I have also witnessed) based on keywords. The idea that there is full transparency in #China is not true. (14/ buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanha…
In an effusive piece in the @nytimes @WHO's Dr. Bruce Aylward's spoke after getting a 'rare glimpse' inside #China. However, most of the international community - given this is a global security issue - still has little to NO access to #China (15/ nytimes.com/2020/03/04/hea…
While people may criticize @WHO & @DrTedros on how forceful or not they have been in #China & whether they should have declared this a public international emergency earlier (finally happened on Jan 30), their hands are tied (16/) who.int/news-room/deta…
Until now there hasn't been a #UNSC meeting on #Coronavirus which is insane given the threat it poses to peace & security. This would have also given better backing to @DrTedros & @WHO to ensure coordination and compliance with required procedures. Time will tell on this. (17/
In #January when coronavirus started spreading across #China the vast majority of cases were in #Hubei province. Total cases have hit just over 80,000, with new cases slowing to several dozen. The peak of confirmed new cases was almost 4,000 on Feb 2nd. (18/
However, as people will be aware the reporting has been uneven and in the midst of the rise #China changed reporting requirements (from confirmed testing to a more diagnostic approach temporarily). Meaning in mid-Feb there was a spike of 14,000 cases. (19/
#China instituted a quarantine on #Wuhan & restrictions on travel throughout the country starting on January 23. Remarkably this meant that almost 1% of the world's population was under quarantine & nearly 10% under travel restrictions. (20/ businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavi…
It likely worked though as today 99% of new cases are outside China, 80-85% of cases in #China have been limited to Hubei province, and even President Xi Jinping who was earlier absent has now visited the epicenter (21/ #Wuhan cnn.com/2020/03/10/asi…
While #Thailand reported the first case of coronavirus on Jan 13 outside #China it quickly spread to an initial set of countries and it is now a self-sustaining virus in too many countries to count, meaning containment is no longer possible (globally) (22/ who.int/thailand/news/…
#Singapore had its first case Jan 23. Today it has only 166 cases and no deaths. This is probably the biggest success story so far. It helps that it is a city state with a population of 6 million. (23/ gov.sg/article/covid-…
#Japan had its first on Jan 16. Today it has 581 cases & only 10 deaths. It could sound like a big success story. However, the government has been trying to avoid the perception that the #Olympics could be cancelled & has UNDER-TESTED (24/ cnn.com/2020/03/05/asi…
#Korea's first case was announced January 20. Today there are over 7,500 cases, 80% from #Daegu & much of it traced to a secretive sect the Shincheonji Church. While the rate of increase was similar to #Italy it appears remarkably to now be in control.(25/ cnn.com/2020/03/09/asi…
#Italy now has over 10,000 cases & shockingly 600+ deaths, which would mean a death rate of 6% (more on this later). It is the most aggressive spread in the 'West', with 1,000+ cases per day. As a result the WHOLE country is under lockdown. (26/ reuters.com/article/us-hea…
It remains to be seen if #Italy can maintain #China-style controls & if mitigate spread of the virus. It's no longer relegated to the North where it first appeared & the knock-on effects have already led to things like a prison escape (27/ bbc.com/news/world-eur…
If #Italy is on precipice #Iran has fallen of the ledge. The case count of 8,000 is considered severely under-reported with a recent article by @gcaw in @TheAtlantic speculating there could be 2 million cases. This is not an unreasonable estimate (28/ theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
In #Iran 23 out of 290 MPs have #coronavirus. Multiple senior officials from a VP, the Dep Min of Health, to others have #coronavirus (more on this later). Whatever the reason for suppressing disclosure #Iran has contributed to the spread across the #MidEast (29/
Most of the cases in #Kuwait, #Lebanon, #Bahrain, #Syria, #Oman, #Iraq and elsewhere can be traced to #Iran. Further cases in the #UAE and as far afield as the #US & #Canada have been traced to Iran. (30/ nytimes.com/2020/02/24/wor…
The other curious country in the #MidEast is #Saudi which has closed the borders (almost), sequestered Eastern Province (where the oil & shiites are), & essentially suspended umrah (most pilgrimages to #Meccca). Only 20 cases have been reported (31/ theguardian.com/global/2020/ma…
Officially #Syria is free from #coronavirus but this isn't true. Smuggling routes connecting #Iran to #Iraq to #Lebanon are ripe for spread of the virus undetected. In addition, the refugees without adequate healthcare is a huge risk for the region (32/ plenglish.com/index.php?o=rn…
It remains to be seen what will happen in conflict affected geographies like #Yemen, #Afghanistan, #Libya which effectively are failed states. THERE NEEDS TO BE MORE ATTENTION HERE. This could lead to constant re-emergence of the virus globally. al-monitor.com/pulse/original… (33/
#Egypt itself has been a source of many infections yet claims a low number of cases and no in-country transmissions (blaming foreigners). The short-sighted approach has led to continuing mini-outbreaks. 34/ washingtonpost.com/world/as-more-…
In #SouthAsia which has almost 2 billion people, #Bangaldesh, #India & #Pakistan are reporting a combined number of less than 100 cases. This is impossible. There is some denial going on but mostly it's lack of testing infrastructure & reach. foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/09/hin… (35/
Other countries are also curiosities #Turkey has ZERO official cases. #Indonesia has less than 30 but has suffered from constant rumors of under-reporting going back a month. 115+ countries/territories have it so if it's not reported yet it will be (36/ theguardian.com/world/2020/feb…
In the Global #East & #South, #Russia, #CentralAsia, #Africa & #LatinAmerica are worth consideration. In #Russia there are just 20 cases & low transmission rates. Can authorities there be believed? A challenge for @WHO is how to get correct info. (37/ wired.com/story/opinion-…
In #CentralAsia, there have been ZERO reported cases in #Kazakhstan, #Tajikistan, #Uzbekistan, #Turkmenistan or #Kyrgyzstan. As we are seeing - and given links to #China & #Iran - this is impossible. (38/ timesca.com/index.php/news…
In Sub-Suharan #Africa, #BurkinaFaso, #SouthAfrica, #Senegal, #Togo, #Cameroon, & #Nigeria have cases but all single digits. @GatesAfrica & others have been working overdrive to ensure preparedness & adequate testing. Let's hope this stays this way. (39/ cnn.com/2020/03/09/afr…
It's worth monitoring #SouthAmerica to see if the virus will truly 'die down' this summer in the #North. #Brazil has 30 cases, #Chile & #Argentina 17 each & #Colombia 15. If we see largescale in-country spread next few weeks that's a dangerous sign (40/ as-coa.org/articles/where…
In #Europe the question is who is the next #Italy. #France, #Germany, #Spain, #Switzerland, #Netherlands, #Sweden, #Denmark, #Belgium, #Austria, #Norway, are seeing SHARP increases at the moment. The @EU_Commission has clearly dropped the ball. (41/ theguardian.com/world/commenti…
#France may actually be the next #Iran. The Minister of Culture has #coronavirus. There are apparently 5 parliamentarians with the virus. (42/ france24.com/en/20200309-fr…
In #Spain the cases doubled overnight and the death toll is already 10 times higher than #Germany. It could be that Spain very quickly institutes an #Italy-style plan in the country. (43/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
In the #UnitedKingdom, the virus is spreading in eastern #England & it is likely that outside the view of #London the country could see transmission rates skyrocket. (/44) edp24.co.uk/news/health/ea…
In #NorthAmerica while the #US initially looked border restrictions, #Mexico & #Canada have had low rates of the virus, although this is likely going to change. #Canada's rapid testing has helped keep the death rate low w/ only 1 fatality so far (/45) wsj.com/articles/canad…
This brings us to the #UnitedStates. The land of @realDonaldTrump who is tweeting about the #flu & the #stockmarket & the opposition @TheDemocrats who see every issue only through the lens of #Trump. As it currently stands #America is ****ed. (/46) nytimes.com/2020/03/10/wor…
There's still a lot we don't know about #COVID19/#Coronavirus. We know it is closely related to #SARS as well as #MERS. How it spreads within the body is slightly different. (/47) sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/…
There's a lot of talk about the mortality rate of #COVID19 but we don't know what it is because cases may be under-reported, we are still early in the spread (so we may see shifts due to immunity, mutations, climates, extended infection & re-lapse). (/48) worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…
BUT #COVID19 is deadlier than the #flu, spreads faster and more easily than #SARS, and CAN kill young people, albeit at lower rates. It is nothing to sneeze at (sorry for the pun). (/49) livescience.com/how-deadly-is-…
Moreover there are some weird things going on. Apparently in many cases, doctors and scientists are convinced that patients are being reinfected by #coronavirus (/50) businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavi…
With regards to symptoms, they can come within 5 days but there have been cases where it takes 20 days for symptoms to appear (and this asymptomatic nature means testing is important to stop the spread). (/51) wsj.com/articles/coron…
The @CDCgov has great advice on how to prevent the virus, and not surprisingly regularly hand-washing is the winner here (given it's spread through droplets). There is NO real treatment for #COVID19 although coping mechanisms are offered (/52) cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
While there are groups from #China, #Israel, in #Europe and elsewhere working on a #Vaccine, it would take 12-18 months for it to be ready and so it's really for the next season (this assumes COVID19 will dip & become a seasonal virus) (/53) technologyreview.com/s/615331/a-cor…
And while we may see the worse case scenarios globally - 30-40% infection rates - which may result in 20 million deaths, this is not really proven. The 'Spanish Flu' killed 50 million people and over half a million in the US. BUT the second year was deadlier than the first. (/54)
In the #US the obsession w/ the #Economy & the #stockmarket is wrong. These can come back (i.e. the #Roaring20s) but delays by authorities are deadly. While #Seattle has gotten attention, #COVID19 is likely circulating heavily throughout the country (/55) newsweek.com/seattle-mayor-…
Senior officials in #NewYorkCity have #Coronavirus as do employees at #WallStreet firms. Yet until now the #StPatricksDay Parade still has not been cancelled (56) cnn.com/2020/03/09/us/…
I spent yesterday in #WashingtonDC and the city is operating as business as usual. There is a real chance that the #US sees a spread within leadership circles like #France & #Iran. This is not out of the question given the complacency. (/57)
As of Monday the #CDC announced it had tested ~5,000 people. #Korea has tested, 200,000 people. 40 times more. For a population 6.5 times smaller. With the same rate the US would have already tested over 1 million people. That's how woefully behind the US is right now. (/58)
People are still being permitted to take #cruises from US ports despite the @PrincessCruises catastrophes. While advice has been given there are no restrictions (/59) thedailybeast.com/meet-the-insan…
Right now the @NBA, @NHL & @NCAA are operating as business as usual gathering tens of thousands of people daily to incubate and spread the virus. Meanwhile in soccer-mad #Europe all games will be played without fans. (/60) foxnews.com/sports/soccer-…
#Coronavirus Recommendations:

- Cancel all gatherings of more than 1,000 people
- Gatherings of more than 100 require special permits
- All schools/universities virtualized until further notice
- Anyone returning internationally must self-quarantine

(/61)
These recs should be implemented at federal & state levels & in most countries around the world. But there are implications. All events would be without spectators/visitors. All campaign rallies would be suspended. A national state of emergency would be put in place (/62)
A final point on #coronavirus. This isn't a drill. It's the real thing. Countries that act late will be too late. Days of inaction will be the difference between life & death. There will be plenty of time to discuss the economy. Now is the time to shut things down. (63/63)
ADDENDUM: UK Health Minister positive for #coronavirus. Self-quarantines. bbc.com/news/uk-518273…
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Taufiq Rahim

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!